You'll find my documented record and scoring table at "bill's stat-wise blog"
Take the Raptors ML, unless you can get them at +3 or more. The Nuggets have been pretty bad on the road this year, and they are on a pretty tough road swing. It is always tough when you are on a bad road trip and you have to lay over in Toronto for a day before playing. The worst of it is that Carmelo is dealing with illness and may not play tonight. The chips are stacked against the Nuggets and yet 70% of the public money is on them.
I love betting against the Lakers, the public makes it so easy. Everyone realizes that the Lakers have a losing record ATS right? They are 10-12 ATS and will just get worse as the season goes on. The public will just keep riding them, though, because they are the defending world champs.
The best part about this bet is that the line will keep getting better as game time approaches, so hold-off as late as you can before taking this play. The Lakers have a team of closers and they know how to win, I would take the points here so you don’t get burned by a game-winning shot.
Smart money alert! The majority of early public money is on the Pistons, and yet the line moved in favor of the Pistons. The Timberwolves are a completely different team at home than they are on the road. Detroit has a -10 scoring margin on the road, making them a bottom-6 road team in the NBA. Look for the T-Wolves to own the boards and cruise to an easy home victory.
I’m not sure where this line is going, so I would just take -2.5 or -3 when you can get it.
This line really surprised me, I am not a big Oklahoma City proponent and New Orleans is pretty damn good at home. The Hornets have a +6.7 scoring margin at home, ranking 7th in the NBA. Any team with a home margin like the Hornets should rarely be favored by less than 5 at home.
- Toronto Raptors ML (+120)
Take the Raptors ML, unless you can get them at +3 or more. The Nuggets have been pretty bad on the road this year, and they are on a pretty tough road swing. It is always tough when you are on a bad road trip and you have to lay over in Toronto for a day before playing. The worst of it is that Carmelo is dealing with illness and may not play tonight. The chips are stacked against the Nuggets and yet 70% of the public money is on them.
- Chicago Bulls (+2.5)
I love betting against the Lakers, the public makes it so easy. Everyone realizes that the Lakers have a losing record ATS right? They are 10-12 ATS and will just get worse as the season goes on. The public will just keep riding them, though, because they are the defending world champs.
The best part about this bet is that the line will keep getting better as game time approaches, so hold-off as late as you can before taking this play. The Lakers have a team of closers and they know how to win, I would take the points here so you don’t get burned by a game-winning shot.
- Minnesota Timberwolves (-3)
Smart money alert! The majority of early public money is on the Pistons, and yet the line moved in favor of the Pistons. The Timberwolves are a completely different team at home than they are on the road. Detroit has a -10 scoring margin on the road, making them a bottom-6 road team in the NBA. Look for the T-Wolves to own the boards and cruise to an easy home victory.
I’m not sure where this line is going, so I would just take -2.5 or -3 when you can get it.
- New Orleans Hornets (-3)
This line really surprised me, I am not a big Oklahoma City proponent and New Orleans is pretty damn good at home. The Hornets have a +6.7 scoring margin at home, ranking 7th in the NBA. Any team with a home margin like the Hornets should rarely be favored by less than 5 at home.