The Good Neighbor

[Neighbor]

Hi everyone,

I have been using my knowledge of the NBA, referees, teams and a self created gambling system for the past month and a half that has been picking games at a 67% clip. I've decided to start posting my plays as not only a test to the system and a way for there to be public record of the accuracy of my picks, but also to share the picks that I do indeed make.

Feel free to tail my plays and see if my current percentages stay true to my word. It is my hope that we can all profit from a system that has been very good to me.

I am not here to argue whether you agree with my plays or not. I will post the plays I make and if you would like more information on my selection, just ask in this thread and I will be happy share my thoughts. I will not be checking out any other threads or making posts outside of this thread.

Thanks for taking a look and good luck to everyone this season.

[Neighbor]

LOCKED IN:
NEW YORK KNICKS +3
NEW YORK KNICKS / TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 217
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS / PORTLAND TRAILBLAZER OVER 193

There are no lines out yet for the Celtics, Spurs, and Warriors games which I will evaluate once they are posted.

[Timofey]

May I ask why the Knicks?

[Neighbor]

The Knicks are on a very good streak winning 8 of their last 9. They were able to defeat Toronto in their first game despite Amare having only nineteen points with nine turnovers. In that game Reggie Evans had 16 rebounds, but he will not be playing in this game. The Knicks are playing much better ball lately as seen by Amare's jump in stats.

Toronto has been playing well at home recently as well. However, their last victory was a big 4th quarter rally against a Durantless Oklahoma City team and a route of the Wizards. Previous to that Toronto was blown out at home by Atlanta. I think Toronto having a decent run of home victories has slightly overrated them at home, as they have also lost to Golden State, Charlotte and the Knicks at home.

Toronto does not have the defensive weapons to slow down New York, nor the firepower to keep up with them in a track meet. The Knicks will be running at full throttle and not adapting to their new team like they were in the first meeting, which New York won anyway.

It is difficult to use ATS stats when evaluating this matchup because the teams aren't the same. Toronto is far less dangerous without Chris Bosh, while New York is much more effective with Raymond Felton and Amare.

New York has only been held under 100 (99 against Charlotte) once out of their last eight road games, while Toronto has only truly allowed 100 points once in their last 7 home games (101 vs Boston - Washington also scored over 100, but this happened in garbage time of a blowout).

New York on the season is 13-6-1 ATS, while Toronto is 11-7-1. New York is 10-2 ATS on the road, a very good mark, but Toronto is only 5-3-1 ATS at home despite being a supposed strong home team. New York appears to be playing stronger defense as of late, allowing only 100 points once (Detroit in overtime, New Jersey scored exactly 100 in a blowout win for the Knicks). Toronto on the other hand is still allowing opponents to score over 100ppg over their last five, and slightly under 100 at home. This leads me to believe that the Knicks will be able to make a few stops, while Toronto will struggle to stop Amare and company when it is needed in what should be a close game.

All of this leads me to believe the Knicks +3 is a solid play and that the stronger recent play of the Knicks defense and that Toronto has only had 3 games on the season go over 217 and being 4-6 at home O/U leads me to believe that the U217 is also a good play.

[Neighbor]

Hello everyone,

We will be adding one play to complete our card today and that is the San Antonio Spurs.

LOCKED IN:
NEW YORK KNICKS +3
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -7
NEW YORK KNICKS / TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 217
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS / PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS OVER 191

Good luck on all of your wagers today.

[bekmurat]

Welcome to a forum !!!

[Neighbor]

Thank you.

2-0 on the day with two plays remaining.

LOCKED IN:
NEW YORK KNICKS +3 WINNER
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -7
NEW YORK KNICKS / TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 217 [COLOR="rgb(0, 100, 0)"]WINNER[/COLOR]
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS / PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS OVER 191

[Neighbor]

The Spurs were able to cover the seven easily for a good win. Unfortunately I did not anticipate over 25 missed free throws in the Clippers game and that will go down as a push.

We have one play thus far that I would recommend locking in before it goes up. I will look over the other games on the schedule tomorrow and release a full card before tipoff.

LOCKED IN:
MIAMI HEAT -4

OVERALL RECORD:
3 - 0 - 1

[Timofey]

Hi Neighbor, do you also like Heat Under and Indiana -7?

[bekmurat]

Good luck,brother

[Neighbor]

LOCKED IN:
MIAMI HEAT -4
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -4
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +5
UTAH JAZZ -9.5
NEW YORK KNICKS / MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES UNDER 222

Good luck.

[Neighbor]

Hi Neighbor, do you also like Heat Under and Indiana -7?

I would lean Toronto +8 (line has moved up) and over 185 for the Miami game, but will have plays on neither line.

[Neighbor]

Today we went 2-3, with Utah allowing a last second meaningless dunk by Rudy Gay to cover and last minute fouling in the Knicks game to lose the over. The only game I really missed was Oklahoma City not showing up.

OVERALL RECORD:
5 - 3 - 1

LOCKED IN:
DENVER NUGGETS -1.5
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +9
DENVER NUGGETS / CHARLOTTE BOBCATS UNDER 202

[Neighbor]

2-1 today, missing on the Nuggets in what seemed (and was) like a line too good to be true.

OVERALL RECORD:
7 - 4 - 1 (64%)

LOCKED IN:
UTAH JAZZ PK
CHICAGO BULLS -6.5
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER / MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES OVER 217
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -10.5

[Neighbor]

overall record:
9 - 6 - 1

locked in:
boston celtics -5
dallas mavericks -10.5
orlando magic -3.5
orlando magic / portland blazers over 184