Pstaff's NBA Picks 2010-2011

[pstaff1989]

This is my first year capping and I have done pretty well with NBA totals so far. I am 12-5, +26 units. I figured I would post my picks on here so that I can track it more easily, and also because it might be a good fade thread for people if I hit a real cold streak, or maybe I get lucky and catch a hot streak for you guys to ride along with.

For tracking purposes I will start at 0-0 and 0 units.
My standard bet is 4.4 units to win 4.


I will have today's play posted when the lines come out from my sports book. best of luck to all

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Over (197)(-110) of Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets. 4.4 units to win 4

My calculations predict 207.55 points to be scored in this contest, pushing it 10 points over the posted total. This is the highest percentage play on my spreadsheet. Additionally, here are a few trends for you:

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 3 of Milwaukee's last 3 games

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Denver 105
Milwaukee 94
Total: 199

Well, it was only a 2 point win, but it was a win none the less. Always good to start a tracking thread off with a victory.

Current Record: 1-0 (+4 units)

[drfunkmaster]

nice job..

[pstaff1989]

thanks man

[pstaff1989]

There will be no play today. Only two games on the slate, both of which are on national tv

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Over (191)(-110) of Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics. 4.4 units to win 4

My calculations are projecting 202.05 points scored in this contest, pushing it 11.05 points over the posted total. Here are a few trends to go along with the pick

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games at home
The OVER is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Boston 104
Chicago 92
Total: 196

Nice win. Could have been more points but it was a slow 4th quarter.

2010-2011 Record: 2-0 (+8 units)

[TOTTENHAM2]

GREAT START INBOTH THREADS KEEP IT GOING

[pstaff1989]

Thanks Ham, working hard towards a profitable season

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

The Over (187)(-115) of Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks. 4.6 units to win 4

My calculations are projecting this game to go 14.89 points over the posted total. This game will be closer than people think. The public is all over Dallas against the spread, and on the moneyline. That usually means that Sacramento is going to hang tough. I can see the kings putting up 90-95 points tonight, and I expect Dallas to get their usual 100 road points. After this contest, Dallas has off until Tuesday night when they host Golden State, look for their starters to eat up plenty of minutes tonight (especially after they didn't have to work so hard last night against Utah). With the current posted total of 187, the over would have been 9-1 in the last 10 contests between these two clubs, that's a good sign. Additionally, here are a few trends:

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Dallas's last 16 games when playing Sacramento
Dallas averages 110.2 points per game against Sacramento in the last 10 contests
Sacramento averages 100.4 points per game against Dallas in the last 10 contests
Sacramento has the third worst field goal percentage against allowing 47.6%

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Dallas: 105
Sacramento: 103
Total:208

21 points over the posted total, another winner. Sacramento kept it close just like I predicted, nice 3-0 start to this thread.

2010-2011 Record: 3-0 (+12 units)

[TOTTENHAM2]

GREAT WORK BEEN FOLLOWING FROM START THANKS

[pstaff1989]

Thanks man! I am just trying to keep a level head and stay focused, I don't want to let a good start get to my head. Let's keep this streak going

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

The Over (185)(-110) of Boston Celtics vs. New Jersey Nets. 4.4 units to win 4

My calculations have this contest going 9.60 points over the posted total. Boston had a really easy night against Chicago on Friday, most of their starters rested much of the third and fourth quarter, I expect them to be plenty rested for this afternoon's contest. The Celtics play to the Over when on the road this season, and New Jersey plays to the over when at home; both are working in our favor. I read an article on the Celtics website about how they are not practicing much of late because they are playing so well and earning the time off, I expect to see another crisp shooting performance just like the other night against Chicago. These two teams played to the Under earlier this year, but Boston only shot 44% from the field, and just 60% from the free throw line. The main reason that contest went Under, no Rajon Rondo. Look for a high-flying offense from Boston today. As always, a few trends:

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston averages 102.7 ppg against New Jersey in the last 10 contests
New Jersey averages 91.7 ppg against Boston in the last 10 contests.

[TOTTENHAM2]

Bad luck they never got going keep up the good work

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Boston: 100
New Jersey: 75
Total: 175

Bad call on my part. I should have known Boston would beat em easy and slow the clock down, but I couldn't predict the start to the second quarter where about 10 points were scored in 6 minutes. Ultimately, that span killed the chance of a victory. I am looking for a nice bounce back day tomorrow. When a streak ends, start a longer one! BTW, Rondo didn't say he wasn't going to play until AFTER warm-ups, tough break...

2010-2011 Record: 3-1 (+7.6 units)

[pstaff1989]

Tomorrow's play is on:

Miami Heat (-4)(-115). 4.6 units to win 4.

My spreadsheet calculations have this as a close contest, mainly because the past 10 meetings between these two teams have resulted in the Bucks shooting a better percentage than the Heat. But, I just don't see that happening this time around. The Miami Heat are looking to get going on a serious streak, this team does not want to finish anywhere below first in the Eastern Conference, just look at the ego that Lebron and Dwade bring. For the first time this season, Miami has been running on all cylinders. The past 4 contests have resulted in their starters watching most of the 4th quarter's from the sideline. They worked over Washington, Detroit and Cleveland, yawwwnnnn; but the Heat really caught my eye when they went in to Atlanta and worked the Hawks for a 12 point win. The bucks are the worst shooting team in the league, why should I expect a lousy 7-12 team to shoot the lights out against a power house Heat squad? This is the time of the year when we can catch the playable Heat lines, later in the season this will be a 9 or 10 point spread. One thing that scares me is the rebounding advantage that the Bucks have, but my theory is that their poor shooting percentage is going to neutralize their only advantage. Miami is one of the stingiest defenses in the league, allowing just 43.3% from the field & 32.2% from downtown. Were not looking for the Heat to cover 10 points here, we just need them to do their job and they should be walking out of Milwaukee with a 7 or 8 point victory. As always, a few trends:

Milwaukee has the worst field goal percentage in the league with just 40.9%
Milwaukee is the worst offensive team in the league averaging just 91.6 points per game
Miami has shot 48.46% from the field over the last 5 games
Milwaukee has shot 41.48% from the field over the last 5 games

[pstaff1989]

There will be a second play today on:

The Under (221)(-105) of Minnesota vs. New York. 4.2 units to win 4

I have to leave for work and won't be able to get a write up in now, but my calculations have this contest going 14 points under the posted total. In the last 10 games between these teams, the posted total of 221 would have been 8-2 in favor of the Under.

The under is 4-2 in New York's last 6 games.

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Minnesota: 114
New York: 121
Total: 235
Loser (-4.2 units)

Alright guys, I'm gonna be honest... I made this bet because I got scared the Heat weren't going to cover, and I thought this was a sure thing. I apologize for not working on this game enough before making the pick. I guess you could say it was an impulse bet. My apologies, nobody is more frustrated about this call than I am. This was not a great call because both of these teams suck and that usually pushes the score over the posted total. I strayed away from my basic handicapping skills here. let's hope the heat pull through and we can write this off as a neutral day

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Miami: 88
Bucks: 78
Winner (+4 units)

This was a nice winner. I thought this line should have been 7 or 8. I got really scared when I saw/was getting texts that over 90% of the public was on Miami, I was shook. I tried to hedge my bet with the Under of the Nicks game, but I fell short on that one. I will look to trust my instincts more in the future, and that should land me more winners than losers.

2010-2011 Record: 4-2 (+7.4 units)

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Under (205)(-110) of Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors. 4.4 units to win 4.

The Dallas Mav's and Golden State Warrior's will both be gunning for a victory this evening, but I expect to see Dallas in control here. The Mav's have only lost 4 games all season, and have only lost 1 of their last 7 vs Golden State when playing at home. Golden State tries to control the tempo when they play lesser competetion, but against a defensively stifling Dallas squad, I don't see them controlling much of anything. Dallas has stepped up their D especially at home this season, and have played to the under in 8 of 11 home games. Golden State has also failed to control the pace of their road games this season, as the under has covered in 8 of their 11 road games. Over 70% of the public is on the over here, but I see Dallas controlling the tempo and closing down the shooting lanes that Curry and Ellis will be desperately searching for. I have this contest going 5 points under the posted total. As always, a few trends:

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams when playing at Dallas
The under is 15-4 in the last 19 road games for Golden State
The under is 17-8 in the last 25 games for Dallas
The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games at home for Dallas
The under is 8-3 for Dallas at home this season
The under is 8-3 for Golden State on the road this season

[smoth]

so far good start: keep it up

[pstaff1989]

Thanks smoth


I really want to make a second play tonight on the nugs, their coach is going for win 1000 and he went to UNC and their playing in NC, how fitting

let's see where the line goes

[pstaff1989]

There will be a second play today on:

Denver Nuggets (-130) vs. Charlotte Bobcats. 5.2 units to win 4

This play comes after much research. It turns out that Denver's head coach is going for his 1000th victory this evening, and he happens to be doing it in the state where he went to school. A UNC grad probably wants nothing more than to seal this one tonight in NC, and I think he has a great chance. The nuggets are a high flying team that has struggled on the road this season, but find themselves winners in 8 of their last 10 games. The nuggets know just how important 1000 wins is, and they know it won't get any easier tomorrow night in Boston. This team is looking to get that win out of the way now, so they don't have it hanging over their heads for weeks to come. The nuggets have a better bench, better starters, a better coach, and they have motivation to win tonight. All of that adds up to a Nuggets victory this evening. The nugs are never able to close teams out, which is why I opted away from the spread, and went to the moneyline. I know the nuggets need the victory tonight, the question is by how much? I think maybe a point or 2, but I definatly like them to win this game. SweetJones is also on this play tonight, which makes me feel very comfortable knowing he has been about 75% on his nba plays lately. My online sportsbook did not have a moneyline for this game, and knowing bodog, that means their scared

Nuggets won their last seven games (four wins by 5 or less points).

[pstaff1989]

Under (48)(-115) first half points of Washington Wizards. 4.6 units to win 4

No time for a write up, didn't see line 'til after work, looks good

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Denver: 98
Charlotte: 100
Loser (-5.2 units)

We missed on a buzzer beater! It was such a close game, you could see how bad the nuggets wanted the win but the Bobcats played like the team they were last year and won it outright. I really liked the call and have no regrets, get 'em next time!

Season Record: 4-3 (2.2 units)

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Warriors: 100
Mavs: 105
Push

This play looked like a winner all the way. 22 points were scored in the last 2.09, nothing you can do there. Frustrating because we had this one all the way, but it's my fault for picking such a close game. Man, 2 pushes tonight and a loss, rough night for me NBA/NHL so far

[pstaff1989]

Loser (-4.6 units)

Chased a victory here tonight. I knew the game would go over the posted total, yet I made this bet. I was just rattled that I had not won a game today, and it was the first time in over a week that happened. I havn't chased in 2 months which makes it even more upsetting that I chased after starting a basketball thread to try and prove I know what I'm doing. Well I guess I am gonna go back to the drawing board and work on my spreadsheets, hopefully I can start to get back on track. Before I started this thread I was on a 2 game win streak, and then went 3-0 on here to get me at 5-0, but since then I have only one 1 game in basketball and have lost 4 while pushing in 1. Maybe you all should start to fade me but then again, who predicts the Wiz to shoot 54% and 60% from downtown against LA ??

[pstaff1989]

Well, after 1 week I would like to say sorry to anyone who may have possibly tailed me. I got real cocky after starting 3 and 0 and I started making plays that I know nothing about. I was up 12 units and the week was going very very well, and I made some bad calls and ended up loosing 2.4 units this week. My weekly goal is 4 units, lets hope to get there next week

[TOTTENHAM2]

Nobody does it every week but dont chase just do what your good at & the wins & money will come all in time for xmas

[smoth]

Don't worry, next week no compulsive pick

[pstaff1989]

Don't worry, next week no compulsive pick

yeah I need to get back to my picks that I have researched for hours. here are the picks from this thread I spent 2 or more hours capping/doing in depth research on:

Over (197)(-110) of Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets. 4.4 units to win 4 Winner
Over (191)(-110) of Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics. 4.4 units to win 4 Winner
The Over (187)(-115) of Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks. 4.6 units to win 4 Winner
Miami Heat (-4)(-115). 4.6 units to win 4. Winner
Under (205)(-110) of Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors. 4.4 units to win 4. Push
Denver Nuggets (-130) vs. Charlotte Bobcats. 5.2 units to win 4 Lose

That's not by chance, it's just hard work. I had impulse bets because I had been winning a lot in the past few weeks and felt like I couldn't lose. Hard work and a slow steady pace will gain net units over the long run this season. I may start to lower the number of unit's per wager, and possibly have more games on my card (like 2-3). I was more successful when I only released one play a day, though.

[pstaff1989]

Today's plays are on:

Miami Heat First Quarter (-.5)(-115) 4.6 units to win 4

Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter (-.5)(-115) 4.6 units to win 4


I am tailing sweetjones plays tonight, because he has been around .500% recently and I see him going on a nice run here soon. I want to make sure I am on bored before he heats up. The heat are going to be looking to take the lead earlier and not let go, because it back fired last time against the Jazz. They are also 6-0-1 in their last 7 first quarters, and the jazz are a 2nd half team anyways. The bucks are a better first quarter team, and their differential in the first is much better then Indiana's. The bucks were hanging tough with the Heat earlier on last time out, and proved they can score the ball at home.

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Indiana: 27
Bucks: 33
Winner (+4 units)

The bucks did not shoot very well to start the half, but they had more looks than the Pacers and were able to capitalize. Let's hope the Heat brings it tonight

Season Record: 5-4-1 (+1.6 units)