Best Bets 2/16

[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for today?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[Razz]

1* Miami +8
1* UL Lafayette -2
1* Cal -3 (starting to regret this one for some reason)

[mad]

Rockets +6.5

Flip me i wasn't gonna play this game but hey, i've no choice now:
76'ers +6

[Bigjeza]

Sorry to go against you mad....but this team is a machine. Rice dik running up and down the court, is like watching Warren from something about Mary.

Suns -6 3units

Suns circled again at BetJ. Which also seems to be down as of this moment.....again. This nash dude is a machine and the team is home. Ouch.

[juuso]

I really like Houston tonight.

Took an hour ago Houston +5.5 and over 201.5

Houston is really in great form now, trying to take 8th win in 9 games. Phoenix returning from high altitude Denver to play b2b game at home. Houston has been much better at road, Phoenix not significanlty better at home than road. Phoenix's game is really one dimensional run and gun, but there is no other team that does it better. Their defense is not really very good and i think Houston has a slight edge in this game.

[Dark Horse]

PHX 1H -3

10-1 ATS in 1H without rest.
HOU too slow to keep up with PHX, especially Yao.

PHX is my dark horse to win it all. Spurs are more vulneralbe than last year. Pistons are great, but too many questionable decisions. Not impressed with Flip Saunders with the game on the line. With Amare back Suns will be very special. Nash and D'Antoni make this by far the smartest team in the NBA.
PHX defense is better than most people think. Scores just turn out higher with a faster game and more possessions for each team. Most likely, PHX will only have to face DAL or SA in the western conference finals; not DAL and SA like last season. Pretty sweet.

[imgv94]

2*Miami Florida +8

[Illusion]

Yesterday's results:

Razz: 12-4-1 +10.60
juuso: 2-0 +7.12
imgv94: 5-4 +5.85
bama06: 3-0 +3.00
kdmfox: 4-1 +2.90
Dark Horse: 2-0 +2.00
shantystar: 3-2-1 +0.80
mad: 3-2 +0.80
presley177: 5-2 +0.60
JayEdgarWho: 1-2-1 -0.37
Cheese: 0-1 -1.07
onlooker: 1-2 -1.10
Alamorich: 0-1 -1.10
newb411breaker19: 3-4 -1.40
fixxer: 1-1 -2.34
pags11: 1-4 -3.16
Illusion: 1-5 -3.90
kgrock: 0-2 -4.40
hanco21: 0-1 -5.25

[pags11]

Miami +8 (-110)
Marquette -1 (-103)
Cal -3 (-110)

[imgv94]

3* Washington -2 -130
3*Washington -3

[imgv94]

3 1/2* Cal -3

[Alamorich]

I really like Houston tonight.

Took an hour ago Houston +5.5 and over 201.5

Houston is really in great form now, trying to take 8th win in 9 games. Phoenix returning from high altitude Denver to play b2b game at home. Houston has been much better at road, Phoenix not significanlty better at home than road. Phoenix's game is really one dimensional run and gun, but there is no other team that does it better. Their defense is not really very good and i think Houston has a slight edge in this game.

Over is going through the roof...now 204 at Chris

[the boss]

Zona +3

[Dark Horse]

Line is -2.5 for PHX 1H, not -3 (as I wrote before).

* Since December PHX is 14-2 ATS in 1H after not winning previous 2H. They won last night's 2H by 1 point, but are 2-0 in the next 1H in that situation.

* Already mentioned that PHX is 10-1 ATS in 1H when playing without rest.

Plus HOU is coming off a 58% shooting night. Only the third time all season they shot over 50%, so that one's out of the way for a while.

[JayEgdarWho]

OVER 202 @ PHX (-104) (2 units) (got it last night). We might not get an outright track meet, but HOU can score with PHX at least for a while. And if the pace is slower it should be seesaw, which helps pump the total. HOU's high assist counts lately are encouraging. PHX is indeed a machine, as BJ notes -- and one that seems to run better without rest, as DH notes.

They are really hammering the Bulls this morning, too. I have some CHI at a bargain but don't like them at home quite enough to stay committted. Probably will middle around with it for fun, so it isn't really a legit posted play.

One other thing -- does anyone else see great enjoyment and potential profit in those alternative Pinny halftime lines, especially the +350s and +450s? In many games we suspect that one side (especially the road team) will collapse in the 2nd half, or the first half had a surprising result that the public probably is in denial about. It's an interesting perspective to come into a game at halftime, without a position, to evaluate lines set to entice players already invested. Betting that fresh perspective at +350 and +450 is good clean cheap fun.

Last night I found some big 2H lines on MIN, GS, and ATL irresistible in games that were otherwise no-action. Only 2 of 5 plays hit, but that still resulted in an overall uptick, and there was never a big downside risk.

[shantystar]

cal -3 confirm

miami +8

houston over 202 .5 at stanjames
marquette -1 not favouring really but try out

ul layfette -2 strong inside info.

[maritime]

Razz I think it was you who mentioned in the past a solid trend in games where the line shift from favoring the home team (Marquette -1 initially) and then shifting to favor the road team (Georgetown now -1). The solid pick being the home team.
Is this right? Anybody else have thoughts. I really like Marquette tonight.

[bama06]

try this

take ariz.+2.5 and unlv OVER 142.

[BuddyBear]

Razz I think it was you who mentioned in the past a solid trend in games where the line shift from favoring the home team (Marquette -1 initially) and then shifting to favor the road team (Georgetown now -1). The solid pick being the home team.
Is this right? Anybody else have thoughts. I really like Marquette tonight.

I've heard it too....there was some obscure game i bet on in the first month of the NCAAB season between James Madison and some other team...i'll try to look it up...but that's exactly what happened...i think the othe team was Appalachian St.

But the trend is right...

[BuddyBear]

I think maybe this is the thread you are referring too Maritime.

http://sbrforum.com/showthread.php?t=3172

[maritime]

Thanks. That wasn't the exact thread I was thinking of but the thinking is definitely along those lines. Anyway, I really like Marquette tonight, plus the points now, but moneyline I think is solid too. Here's my picks for today Illusion:

Marquette +1.5 -105 (5 units)
Cal -1.5 -130 (1 unit)
Rockets +6.5 -130 (1 unit)

[BuddyBear]

Thanks. That wasn't the exact thread I was thinking of but the thinking is definitely along those lines. Anyway, I really like Marquette tonight, plus the points now, but moneyline I think is solid too. Here's my picks for today Illusion:

Marquette +1.5 -105 (5 units)
Cal -1.5 -130 (1 unit)
Rockets +6.5 -130 (1 unit)

Yeah i like Marquette too...i hope they come through for you and me and several others today.

[Cheese]

UL Laf -2 (-109)
Oregon St. ML (+122)
Cal -3 (-102)

[Dark Horse]

Adding PHX -4.5

PHX is 9-1 ATS since mid-November as a favorite of 5 or less (not counting dogs). The one loss was a triple OT loss in Denver.
It's all about motivation with PHX, because as a favorite of 8 or more they are only 4-7 ATS since December, losing 5 of those 11 games SU!

[imgv94]

How do any of you see value in Oregon? They are 6-7@Home. 7 of those
losses came against teams that were not 18-5.. Maybe I am blind
but Washington on paper wins by 12-15pts. There is nothing that makes
them look good. Wash is in a battle with UCLA so they will not play
lethargic. WASH IS SOLID!! What are you people seeing???

Oregon has lost 6 of 7 games. There win came against
terrible Ariz St. Good luck if your betting Oregon
you will need it.

[Cheese]

How do any of you see value in Oregon?

Oregon St.

[imgv94]

oh your right!! I need 2 check that game out!!

[Alamorich]

Hey JayEdger. What I have done with halftimes is watch the scores and when a half times score seems way out of wack an alarm goes off and look for the right angle. One good one is a half time score that has gone way over the projected total. Say the posted total was 200 and both teams combined scored a total of 65 in the first half. More often then not the total for the second half is going to go under since the public sees all the points scored in the first half and assumes incorrectly that there will be a lot of points in the second half as well.

[bama06]

why not!

go with, chi. UNDER 99 1ST HALF, miami,fl. +7.5, and unlv OVER 65.5 1ST HALF.

[onlooker]

1 unit:

76ers ML +180
Rockets ML +200

[imgv94]

RECAP:
4* Cal -3
3* Washington -2 -130 &
3*Washington -3
---------------------
2*Miami Florida +8
1*N.Ariz ML+150
1*N.Ariz +4 -120
1*Marquette ML +120

[presley177]

4* Washington State/Oregon State OVER 113 1/2

all other plays 1/2 unit.

Marquette ML +120
California -3 +100
Washington State -2 -108
Middle Tenn St. +3 -107
Morehead State +17 -107
Northern Arizona +3 -102
Tennessee State + +4 1/2 -104
UNLV -3 1/2 -104
Georgetown/Marquette OVER 134 +101
Miami/Boston College OVER 134 1/2 +113
Coll Charleston/Citadal UNDER 139 1/2 -105
Jacksonville ST. ML -217

[BigD]

Ark little rock +3.5 2units
Troy +1.5 2units
Mami +8 3units
Tenn. St +4.5
Marquette +1.5 2units

[fixxer]

Phx Ml -200

[onlooker]

1 unit:

76ers ML +180
Rockets ML +200

1 unit:

Western Kentucky -3.5