Houston Rockets +9.5 @ Dallas 11/29

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • lyon804
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-02-09
    • 6526

    #1
    Houston Rockets +9.5 @ Dallas 11/29
    Hope all had a nice holiday with family and friends. Now, it's time to turn the page and get back to the business of gambling. We have a good opportunity in front of us on Monday when the Houston Rockets visit the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks are playing as well as anybody in the NBA currently. The Mavericks completed a successful 2 game road trip that started just prior to Thanksgiving by convincingly beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-103. The Mavericks were idle on Thanksgiving and returned the following day to beat the Spurs on the road 103-94. The Spurs suffered only there second loss of the season to the Mavericks and was playing as well as anybody at the moment. The next nite the Mavericks had a back to back at home against the Miami Heat and easily dismissed the listless Heat 106-95. The Mavericks had Sunday off to get well be rested for the Houston Rockets on Monday. The Houston Rockets will be playing a back to back off the heels of a hard fought 99-98 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder.This will be a short trip for the Rockets from Houston to Dallas.185


    So you may ask as well as the Mavericks are playing currently why would we want to bet against them especially considering that the Rockets played the nite before? Well, there are a couple of answers really. The first one would be we are getting almost 10 pts to a team due a let down after a nice run. The bookmakers are giving us some value here due to perception of the Mavericks being the superior team and the fact that the Rockets are playing a back to back on the road. The Mavericks have won 5 straight games and have already beat three team OKC,SAN,Miami by 8,9,11 pts and OKC and San An were on the road as well in tough environments to win let alone coast to almost a double digit victory. Lets face it the three teams named above are superior to the Houston Rockets and that is exactly what Dallas is thinking. The Rockets have struggled thus far this season with a 5-11 record and are just 7-9 ATS. The Rockets are still without starting PG Aaron Brooks. Last time the Rockets played in Dallas last season they cashed S/U and ATS as a 5 pt road dog.


    I see this is a dangerous game for the Mavericks who will also host the lowly Minnesota Tiberwolves on Wednesday before taking to the road Friday against the Jazz. Many times teams after a successful road trip albeit 2 games come home to relax, but since it was the Miami Heat when they returned home on Saturday the Mavericks got up for that game because of all the Heat hype and easily dispatched them. Now, looking ahead to the struggling Rockets and the lowly T-Wolves the Mavericks will relax at home before catching a plane and heading to Salt Lake for Friday nite to square off against the Jazz. A team like the Rockets have struggled but they play hard and are looking for respect and might just jump up and beat the Mavericks tommorow nite. Rather they win or not I don't see the Mavericks covering the 9.5 tommorow. The Mavericks have shown time and time again that they play up or down to there competetion at home where they are just 2-5-2 ATS this season and you can really throw out the Heat game because they were motivated for that one. Since last season the Mavericks are 1-12 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 or more. Just last week I gave that stat out when I suggested to play the Pistons +10 which easily cashed 88-84. The 1-12 ATS at home when favored by 9.5 or more and just barely beating the lowly Pistons by 4 pts, then going on the road and beating 2 quality playoff teams by almost double digits and to return home to beat the Heat the very next nite by 11 pts tells you the Mavericks play hard when they are playing the NBA elite and just go through the motions when they are playing a sub-par team. One other thing I like is this game will be televised on NBAtv. I don't know what it is about that other than the road teams cover almost every game the last 2 seasons on that network.



    Play the Rockets +9.5
  • sweetjones55
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 04-07-09
    • 5257

    #2
    How many units for yourself are you thinking Lyon? I like this play as well, betting against the Mavs at home is just never a bad idea.
    Scared money don't make money

    182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
    37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
    Comment
    • sweetjones55
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-07-09
      • 5257

      #3
      Another good question is, what do you think the line will do because a move to 10 or 10.5 would be significant. The sharps didn't pound this line in either direction so I think the public will determine it. I think they will see 12-4 Dallas playing 5-11 Houston on b2b and they will take Dallas.
      Scared money don't make money

      182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
      37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
      Comment
      • lyon804
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 11-02-09
        • 6526

        #4
        certainly if you think you can get better than 9.5 then by all means wait for it. I have to continue fading the mavs at home against teams and spreads like this until it becomes unprofitable to do so. I caught this trend early last season and I ride it until it don't work, thus I don't get to caught up on the details. I will be playing the T-Wolves on Wednesday as well at Dallas.
        Comment
        • shari91
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 02-23-10
          • 32661

          #5
          Not sure which team I dislike more between these two this year but I have learned that Dallas at home blow chunks when the world expects them to kick ass so I'll be on Houston as well. May the gambling gods have mercy on our souls for backing the Rockets.
          Comment
          • Zarthus
            SBR Hustler
            • 11-16-10
            • 66

            #6
            what else are u gonna pick for tomorrow's games, lyon? only the hou vs dal odds are posted here...there are 4 games scheduled for tomorrow....
            Comment
            • southpaw74
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-21-09
              • 7104

              #7
              I agree and will be on board the rocket ship Monday! Good luck to us...
              Comment
              • lolbear
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-10-09
                • 756

                #8
                BOL, thinking of this play as well because dallas so bad ATS but they are still a fair home team, unlike ssay, the hawks. will look more into it.
                Comment
                • Anthonyk99
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 11-05-09
                  • 186

                  #9
                  like the pick lyon lets cash this trend
                  Comment
                  • GTS925
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-10
                    • 1158

                    #10
                    Nice writeup. very well thought!
                    Comment
                    • paulnikolo
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 03-30-10
                      • 198

                      #11
                      same sentiments here lyon! Houston Rockets +9.5 is the lock of the week!
                      Comment
                      • ed_lupeet
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 01-23-10
                        • 325

                        #12
                        Lets cash this tomorrow Houston
                        NBA record 121-97-7 (+18 units)
                        Comment
                        • dude_bg
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 09-01-10
                          • 376

                          #13
                          down to 9 and juiced to -108
                          Comment
                          • johnnymapalo
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-14-08
                            • 2999

                            #14
                            Hmm, you know I thought this same thing when I saw the line last night. Dallas usually never covers big spreads, especially at home. But don't forget that Houston absolutely sucks on the road. Houston is atrocious away from home. Also, Miami almost came back on the Mavericks in that game. The Mavericks play like trash at home yes but I don't know if I can trust Houston so much. Maybe a small play here on Houston..
                            Comment
                            • GTS925
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-06-10
                              • 1158

                              #15
                              Is it gonna go under?
                              Comment
                              • impper
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 11-11-10
                                • 490

                                #16
                                Originally posted by johnnymapalo
                                Hmm, you know I thought this same thing when I saw the line last night. Dallas usually never covers big spreads, especially at home. But don't forget that Houston absolutely sucks on the road. Houston is atrocious away from home. Also, Miami almost came back on the Mavericks in that game. The Mavericks play like trash at home yes but I don't know if I can trust Houston so much. Maybe a small play here on Houston..
                                houston sucks on the road and at home. i wouldnt put much stock into it. they play the mavericks tough tonight. i'm on the rockets pretty big, as much as i hate to bet on them. i hated my bet on them yesterday against the thunder too but they won SU
                                Comment
                                • Regul8er
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-06-07
                                  • 10666

                                  #17
                                  Strange Game here. Houston has been extremely disappointing and can hardly be trusted, while Dallas doesn't cover against anyone at home.

                                  Who on Houston will be guarding Diggler?? I don't see who is going to avoid Nowitzki from having a monster game? Scola can't afford to come away from the basket, Miller isn't nearly quick enough, Hayes isn't nearly big enough. It'll be interesting, best of luck to you lyon.
                                  Comment
                                  • CHAZ
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-09-09
                                    • 4978

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Regul8er
                                    Strange Game here. Houston has been extremely disappointing and can hardly be trusted, while Dallas doesn't cover against anyone at home.

                                    Who on Houston will be guarding Diggler?? I don't see who is going to avoid Nowitzki from having a monster game? Scola can't afford to come away from the basket, Miller isn't nearly quick enough, Hayes isn't nearly big enough. It'll be interesting, best of luck to you lyon.
                                    Exactly, why I'm passing. The Mavericks could still beat the Rockets with just the bench playing. Rockets are pretty sad right now and I'd rather not bet on Dallas then trust my money on Houston.
                                    Comment
                                    • Dexter
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 12-24-08
                                      • 25829

                                      #19
                                      this was the one game that stuck out to me today lyon - bad sign for you...
                                      Comment
                                      • lyon804
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-02-09
                                        • 6526

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Dexter
                                        this was the one game that stuck out to me today lyon - bad sign for you...


                                        It is what it is my buddie... More importantly... Who is the chick in the avatar?
                                        Comment
                                        • impper
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-11-10
                                          • 490

                                          #21
                                          it's anne hathaway my friend . . . supposedly there's an endless supply of sex scenes with her in her new movie. she also did a movie where she played a suburban LA girl who falls in with latino thugs, and she has a bunch of nude scenes in there
                                          Comment
                                          • lyon804
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-02-09
                                            • 6526

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by impper
                                            it's anne hathaway my friend . . . supposedly there's an endless supply of sex scenes with her in her new movie. she also did a movie where she played a suburban LA girl who falls in with latino thugs, and she has a bunch of nude scenes in there

                                            I like it
                                            Comment
                                            • GTS925
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-06-10
                                              • 1158

                                              #23
                                              That's what happens to Disney chicks when they grow old.
                                              Comment
                                              • aireent777
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 12-21-09
                                                • 5930

                                                #24
                                                I think if you can get a decent -8 or -8.5 for the Mavs, take it. I got -8.5. Good luck to all
                                                Comment
                                                • BL
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-11-09
                                                  • 4070

                                                  #25
                                                  Tough one. I was leaning Rockets but I couldn't pull the trigger. Mavs are for real this year. This spread seems to be right on spot. BOL !
                                                  Comment
                                                  • thebestthereis
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-01-09
                                                    • 11459

                                                    #26
                                                    line is a total joke, dallas shouldn't be favored by 9 over anyone except the clippers and that doesn't count.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • sweetjones55
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-07-09
                                                      • 5257

                                                      #27
                                                      Good luck on your plays tonight.
                                                      Scared money don't make money

                                                      182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
                                                      37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BelieveTheHype
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-03-09
                                                        • 747

                                                        #28
                                                        Mavs have won last few by big numbers and coming off of a tough week, could be in for a let down game/close game, on Rockets +9. GL.

                                                        Also really like the u199 in this game. Dallas is a good defensive team and inconsistent offensively outside of Dirk. I think they may be a bit tired in this.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by lyon804
                                                          It is what it is my buddie... More importantly... Who is the chick in the avatar?
                                                          anne hatthaway.....she is insanely gorgeous
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ParlayJunkie
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 08-06-10
                                                            • 689

                                                            #30
                                                            My book is offering Houston at +8.5 so i bought the extra point. Looks good.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Deep_Rest
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-29-10
                                                              • 841

                                                              #31
                                                              Hou +9.5

                                                              Seems like a good amount of value here. I think the Rockets will come out fast. If the Mavs can keep pace, I think they'll slowly turn it around by the end of the game and win...just not in dominating fashion. Dirk has been playing well, but someone else needs to step up. Good luck tonight!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • PUDS
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 10-29-09
                                                                • 148

                                                                #32
                                                                nice write up lyon !
                                                                Lets make our bankroll rockets tonight !

                                                                Rocket +9 for me

                                                                Comment
                                                                • rumple
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-19-07
                                                                  • 2499

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Beautiful write up, horrible pick.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BelieveTheHype
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 01-03-09
                                                                    • 747

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Rockets going for back door vs Mavs bench.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • GTS925
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-10
                                                                      • 1158

                                                                      #35
                                                                      9 points in 1 minute! Go Rockets!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      Search
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...