Tom Hamilton's NBA Season Thread (2010/2011)

[Tom Hamiltom]

• Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs
  

I’m not surprised with these odds because there’re reasons to favor Spurs in this match-up and neither side is rather overrated due to the fact that both are liked by the public though I finally expect a letdown scenario for red-hot hosts and I doubt they’ll win again, especially that it’s one of the worst spots for them. This one is going to be an extremely close contest, so +3.5 on the guests does look very good – it’s a coin flip at the end.

The Spurs have been great due to the season, being 11-1 and enjoying a terrific streak of ten consecutive wins but this is an experienced team with wize coach Gregg Popovich, so I doubt they’ll be playing just to extend their streak. It’s a very important game but if the lose it, they’re still in great position in the West. Actually, besides they’ve been efficient and played a good basketball, they’ve been playing either mediocre opponents or had favourable match-ups. I think that after going 5-0 ATS in last five games, bookmakers were aware of the fact that public will be pounding them automatically and gave them an additional 1.5 points in here. I suppose that it won’t be easy for the hosts to defend against very dangerous guests perimeter, especially that they’ve had problems with that already through this season. What’s more they won’t dominate frontcourt against C Dwight Howard and besides a slight advantage on point-guard position, I don’t see significant edges for team from San Antonio.

In fact PG Jameer Nelson ain’t bad playmaker, while PG Tony Parker is due for a letdown as he’s been on fire since his personal (divorse with wife) problems. What’s more Magic can’t be underestimated because they’re working properly through the year as well, being 9-3 with four wins in a row as well. They haven’t been faring good ATS but they’ve been winning and that’s what matter. Magic won three out of last four against Spurs in head to head, so adding the fact they’re deeper team when it comes to the bench and have been better rebounding team so far, I’m giving him an advantage (knowing they should control range shooting). +3.5 on the Stan Van Gundy’s team is a good offer with @1.93 odd.

• Orlando Magic (+3.5) (6 units to win 5.58 units)
  

[Tom Hamiltom]

• New Orleans Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers
  

It’s kind of a gut play, where I expect bookmakers to be off the line after yesterday one of the most lowscoring games of current season. Hornets defeated Kings 75-71 yesterday, being great on defensive end but totally inefficient on offensive one and that’s probably the reason why the line stays at 196 points today and not higher. What’s more Clippers have been underperforming offensively as well, so that’s a great opportunity for bookmakers to fool people that UNDER should be the play and both teams will each score about 85-90 points in here.

I think that it’s misleading and it ought to be an open game with at least 200 points on the scoreboard. First of all PG Chris Paul should be capable of creating lots of scoring opportunities – he should be scoring and assisting easily against average opponents defense. Clippers are an inexperienced team and were starting with U-23 players in the line-up of late, so toughness ain’t expected from them. Still, PG Randy Foye ought to be back today and I expect him to help in scoring, as well as working well with corp of his young and potent offensively fellows – especially PF Blake Griffin. It should be a nice game to watch, both teams are likely to score 100+ points, so OVER is the play.

• OVER 196 POINTS (6 units to win 5.88 units)

[Tom Hamiltom]

YTD: 0-2 -12 units

Not the best start of NBA but I was really sure that the OVER will be cashed in after 112 points in the first half. At the end it still may have gone through if not Hornets horrible display, Ariza two free-throws missed, Paul turnover etc.

[Tom Hamiltom]

• Charlotte Bobcats @ New York Knicks

This game is very important for the Bobcats as they've started season under expectations and they need a win suddenly. 5-8 record is definitely too low considering their schedule and potential, so coach Larry Brown knows he HAS TO win this one. He's experienced and should find X-factor against efficient offensively but inconsistent Knicks. What's interesting Knicks were very poor at Madison Square Garden so far, being 1-4, so I doubt home-court will be an edge. +3 on the guests is enough, being -110.

• Charlotte Bobcats (+3) (6 units to win 5.46 units)

[Tom Hamiltom]

• Atlanta Hawks @ New Jersey Nets

The Hawks are coming off an embarrassing loss against Celtics to New Jersey and I expect them to be fired up and extremely motivated today. They're a lot better team than the Nets, so with a need of a statement win after a terrible streak of bad games lately, they should not only win but also cruise past hosts in here. They're 5-1 away from Atlanta and should improve overall 8-6 record. Nets are very average, Harris - Lopez duo ain't as dangerous as was said to be and that's why they're just 4-9. Better team is gonna win, so -3 is a short spread.

• Atlanta Hawks (-3) (6 units to win 6 units)