'DOGS Ruling the NBA

[fletch49]

Underdogs have ruled the NBA so far this season.
The record?? 74-45 ATS for all 'dogs. That's a 62% winning percentage.

AND...
for the past 3 days (11-10/11-12) the 'dogs are 16-3 ATS
Trends do eventually turn around...but by how much and when??

Any ideas on why this is happening? And of course, will it continue

[dom75]

Personally I think the dogs are covering right now as the oddsmakers, along with everyone else, is still adjusting to the off season trades and new coaches. It is hard to gauge some teams still as you think a team is hot and turns cold and vice versa. Once teams start to get a good grip on the way to play with other teammates, we will see a change. I think around game 20ish things will turn around, but right now those of us who do bet the dogs are not complainin !

[fletch49]

In the past 6 days the 'dogs have covered 29-8 They are 87-50 for the season so far. Someone shared with me recently that the best value in all of sports betting are NBA road 'dogs. Hmmm

[fletch49]

NBA 'dogs still ruling the spread results. Last two days they are 16-4 The squares have got to be pissed. They sooo much looove favorites.

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

I thought I was the only one who noticed this. Another thing thats sticking out to me is that the favorites are covering at an astounding rate in College Ball as well. Of course there are underdog covers in the NBA and favorite covers in the NCAAB, but the percentages per each league are showing to take the underdogs in the NBA and favs in college... I have no idea what the score in the NBA game between Boston/Toronto was but I'm going to guess off the top of my head Toronto probably covered the 5.5................

[fletch49]

NBA dogs are still covering at a 62.8% rate. Going into tonight (11-22) they were 113-67

[fletch49]

Just when i thought the NBA dog rule was over (15-15 the past 5 days), yesterday the dogs rule again by going 9-2 ATS on Friday. NBA dogs are still hitting at an average of 62.2% for the season.

[fletch49]

NBA 'dog of the day....NEW ORLEANS +3.5

New Orleans are 4-1 ATS as a road dog......and Oklahoma City is just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite.

[fletch49]

NBA 'dog of the day....DETROIT +10.5

Detroit is 6-3 ATS on the road and 11-6 ATS overall.
Orlando is 4-9 ATS in last 13 games.

Yesterday = New Orleans +3.5 (Lost by 2.5 pts)
Season 'dog record = 0-1 (-1.10 units)

[oh_lol]

Interesting

[eddie0vedder]

Fav day today to start evening it out

[fletch49]

Fav day today to start evening it out

NBA dogs are 144-88 so far this season. That is just over 62%. Will it turn around? Time will tell. Someone told me several years ago that the sports bet with the most dependable value was NBA dogs. So far, I cannot argue with him.

Good luck with your faves today

[fletch49]

11-30 result Detroit +10.5 L (by 0.5 pts)
Season 'dog record = 0-2 (-2.20 units)

Back at it again tomorrow. With the Memphis win over the Lakers the dogs are 3-2 ATS so far tonight.

I use Pinnacle closing lines to determine ATS dog records.
Detroit closed at +11.5 which gave them the dog win. I had to make my play when the line was +10.5

[fletch49]

Wednesday, December 1
NBA 'dog of the day....DETROIT +11.5

Miami is 5-13 ATs this season including a 3-8 ATS record at home.
Detroit is 12-6 ATS for the season and a solid 7-3 ATS on the road.

Miami just does not have this thing (3-stars) figured out yet. And yet, the betting public just luuuuvs them The public are keeping the Heat lines way above their true value.
Good luck with all your picks.

Season 'dog record = 0-2 (-2.20 units)

[Deep_Rest]

This is a good observation. But you need to remember that this is due to individual teams, not Vegas screwing up. You should never blindly pick the underdog. While us sharps might get the money, I also still think Vegas is making a ton of money this year. Two of the most highly bet teams, the Magic and Heat are doing terribly vs the spread this year. Another surprise was the Knicks' recent West Coast tour. They covered something like 5 games in a row. There is also not enough credit given to the Spurs who have been covering machines lately. They aren't as popular (maybe not as good, either) but they're still an elite team headed by a HOF coach. I think they would be covering something like 8 games in a row if they didn't drop that game to the Mavs. What I'm trying to say is, if you average down these 4 teams, I think you'll see there's only a modest at best edge to the dogs. There might be some value on betting for/against the aforementioned teams, but please PLEASE don't just blindly bet on the dogs! Vegas will eat you alive!

[fletch49]

This is a good observation. But you need to remember that this is due to individual teams, not Vegas screwing up. You should never blindly pick the underdog. While us sharps might get the money, I also still think Vegas is making a ton of money this year. Two of the most highly bet teams, the Magic and Heat are doing terribly vs the spread this year. Another surprise was the Knicks' recent West Coast tour. They covered something like 5 games in a row. There is also not enough credit given to the Spurs who have been covering machines lately. They aren't as popular (maybe not as good, either) but they're still an elite team headed by a HOF coach. I think they would be covering something like 8 games in a row if they didn't drop that game to the Mavs. What I'm trying to say is, if you average down these 4 teams, I think you'll see there's only a modest at best edge to the dogs. There might be some value on betting for/against the aforementioned teams, but please PLEASE don't just blindly bet on the dogs! Vegas will eat you alive!

Thank you my friend for the sound and well thought out advice. You obviously know what you are doing. I am trying to pick out the one dog each day that I believe has the best shot at covering.
I will check out further on the idea that there are just a few teams who are dominating as dogs and the rest may well be just average as dogs.


Thanks again. Please feel free to share again. I need all the advice I can get. Even if someone decides to give it in a critical way I can still learn.

[ttwarrior1]

something else to think about,, lebron might not go all out tonight, you know he wants to be 100 percent for the cleveland game

[fletch49]

12-01 result Detroit +11.5 Lost (by 25 pts)
Season 'dog record = 0-3 (-3.30 units)

Ouch! Heat came to life last night. Detroit scores 30 points in the 2nd half

No dog play for tonight. Not enough games to choose from.

[eddie0vedder]

pho is the dog tonight, good bet

[fletch49]

pho is the dog tonight, good bet

My data shows it too close to call. However, my gut says you are right. I find I do better when I stick to my data.
Good luck with Phoenix tonight.

Any chance there are "objects" thrown onto the court tonight in Cleveland?

[fletch49]

With NBA dogs going 12-14 the past 4 days...got to pick today's dog carefully.

Leaning towards Minnesota, Chicago, New Jersey and the LA Lakers

[fletch49]

pho is the dog tonight, good bet

Nice pick eddie

[fletch49]

Been at the ER with my 30-yr old son who is fighting cancer all morning. Home for 30 minutes and then off to the City of Hope Cancer Center.
No time for plays today. Home probably past midnight if at all.
Be back tomorrow I hope.

[fletch49]

Saturday, December 4
NBA 'dog of the day....ATLANTA +9 (5Dimes) -107

Atlanta is 7-2 ATS on the road while Miami is just 4-8 ATS at home.
I also think that the Heat's big win at Cleveland has set them up for a bit of a let-down today.
Would not be surprised if the Hawks won the game outright.

Good luck to everyone with all your picks today.
Season 'dog record = 0-3 (-3.30 units)

[BigJ]

I'm telling you...Friday, Saturday and Sunday....take ALL dogs.

You will be ahead...

[fletch49]

Last 5 days NBA dogs have been 15-15. Things have cooled off a bit. Last night though the dogs roared by going 8-5. BigJ has something here I think. Sat and Sun just might be big dog days

[kydchi]

better go with the dogs!

[fletch49]

12-04 result....ATLANTA +9 (5Dimes) -107 LOST
Season 'dog record = 0-4 (-4.37 units)

OUCH! dogs were just 1-4 on Saturday. Turnaround day, here we go.

Sunday, December 5
NBA 'dog of the day....WASHINGTON +8 (5Dimes) -105

Off to the ER for the 3rd time on 5 days with our son. Fighting cancer, but losing a lot of ground lately.
See you all tomorrow. GOOD LUCK

[brahmabull117]

that washington pick is no good brah


Phoenix has dominated this team at home in recent years and Washington has gotten blown out on the road a bunch of times htis season

[lolbear]

12-04 result....ATLANTA +9 (5Dimes) -107 LOST
Season 'dog record = 0-4 (-4.37 units)

OUCH! dogs were just 1-4 on Saturday. Turnaround day, here we go.

Sunday, December 5
NBA 'dog of the day....WASHINGTON +8 (5Dimes) -105

Off to the ER for the 3rd time on 5 days with our son. Fighting cancer, but losing a lot of ground lately.
See you all tomorrow. GOOD LUCK

Dude give my prayers to your son, glad you have such a positive attitude still!

[fletch49]

12-05 result....WASHINGTON +8.5 (5Dimes) -105 LOST
Season 'dog record = 0-5 (-5.42 units)

OUCH This streak will end.....right ??

[fletch49]

that washington pick is no good brah


Phoenix has dominated this team at home in recent years and Washington has gotten blown out on the road a bunch of times htis season

You were right on brahmabull Should check with you before my Monday pick

[fletch49]

DOG REPORT......NBA dogs are only 23-28 ATS the past 7 days. Quite a change from the 143-85 record prior to the past 7 days.
The big question for handicappers is; do we see this as a small, temporary correction or a significant major change?
I am seeing it as a necessary small correction (to borrow a stock market term) before it gets back on track.
Last season NBA dogs won ATS 53% of the time. This season they are hitting 59% ATS. The number is due to come back closer to the 53% of last season. Just how close it comes is anyone's guess.

Would love to hear your thoughts on what you think.

[fletch49]

Monday, December 6
NBA 'dog of the day....ATLANTA +6.5 (5Dimes) -107
Season 'dog record = 0-5 (-5.42 units)

Atlanta is 7-3 ATS on the road.
Orlando is 6-5 ATS at home. The Magic are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17.

BTW...I do not expect many people to follow this thread. This is an exercise in guts for me. Comments of course are always appreciated.

[fletch49]

12-06 result....ATLANTA +9.5 (5Dimes) -107 WINNER
Season 'dog record = 1-5 (-4.42 units)

Finally! The streak is broken, and with an outright dog winner at that.
On to tomorrow