2/12 - Pistons @ Heat / early thoughts

[Dark Horse]

Can't wait to see the line on this one.

Pistons were a 6 pt favorite at home against the Spurs, and a 4.5 pt dog last month in San Antonio. Detroit won both games SU and ATS.

Pistons were a 5.5 pt favorite at home against the Heat. Detroit won, but didn't cover. You have to think that Miami will be the favorite on Sunday... :dinner42:

[Alamorich]

Sunday might be one of the best lines we have seen on the Pistons in a long time. Spurs line was reasonable tonight at -2.5 and they won by 10. Miami game might be a PK or maybe -1. If Miami wants to win this one they gotta give Zoe more minutes but they won't.

[presley177]

imo the heat team is in shambles mentally. ...with that said..I hope Miami are favored so I can pound Detroit.

[Dark Horse]

Be careful to read too much into that humiliation by Dallas. The Heat probably were looking ahead. They're not very interested in Dallas, because Mavs are unlikely to reach NBA finals. The Pistons, to Miami, are a different story. They will meet that team in the playoffs, most likely in the Eastern conference final. So this game is huge to Miami. They have to show Detroit that they can't just come into their house and expect to win.

Miami is a very different team at home than on the road. Detroit has been playing poorly on the road lately, losing three of its L5 SU. They're basically bored. The season is long, and the worthy challenges are few and far between.

Is Detroit the better team? Absolutely. Will they match Miami's intensity? Maybe.

[goldengoat]

heat will NOT be favored

i say prolly detroit -4

heat are not a great team and definitely have some consistency problems

shaq is getting old and riley is no longer or ever will be the coach he used to be

detroit laughs all the way to the finals

[bigboydan]

I will not bet on or against detroit the rest of the year !! although, the way the heat are playing lately i'd lean twords the pistons in this game. that is if i somebody was holding a gun to my head that is.

[newb411breaker19]

Dark Horse, Miami isn't that bad on the road.

[JayEgdarWho]

I think you might want to get the Pistons early -- the public, following Chuck and Kenny, will be reading plenty into the loss
===========
Loss to Dallas unleashes wave of criticism.

During the national broadcast, TNT analyst Doug Collins noted, "This is not like a Pat Riley team tonight. Pat Riley teams don't quit."

Then there was Charles Barkley, who was more direct during the network's studio show.

"I blame the general manager, oh wait, he's their coach now," he said of Riley. "Gary Payton is their best point guard, and he's 77 years old. They don't have good outside shooting. They don't play good defense. They can't rebound. ... They've got nothing coming off the bench."
=============

[Dark Horse]

Barkley only has negative things to say on TNT; except about teams that everyone agrees on are great. He's the comic relief on the show, but not very original. When Magic Johnson comments I immediately sit straight up. He gives you insight inside the team and the locker room. He mentioned the importance of the Cleveland game to Miami... (101-73 blowout), and knew exactly how Riley had motivated his team.

Miami L5 on road: 76-112 (DAL); 92-105 (NJN); 101-95 (HOU); 91-85 (CHA); 92-100 (LAL). Just two wins, and against terrible teams.
Miami L5 at home: 114-98 (BOS); 101-73 (CLE); 118-114 (LAC); 98-107 (PHX); 94-82 (MEM). Just one loss; against PHX, which ran them off the court. Shaq is in no shape to keep up with that.

Pistons L5 on road: 84-73 (ORL); 98-99 (ATL!); 85-93 (IND); 87-80 (PHI); 84-91 (NJN). Only two SU wins... Their weakest stretch of the season by far.


Miami bounce-back written all over it? This is their game of the year so far. If they can't establish dominance on their home court now, nobody will take them serious. But if they can get a win over the Pistons, they're serious contenders again. Also, the Heat doesn't have to dig very deep during the season, because they're in such a weak division. They're looking to peak in the playoffs. Shaq is like Horry. He picks his spots. Meanwhile, the Pistons could easily shrugg off a loss in this game. This is a statement game only to the Heat.

Doesn't mean I'm on the Heat...

(Some great coaches -in college- will let a team play below its potential, so their next opponent will underestimate them. Not saying the Heat threw that game in Dallas, but Riley did say he did a terrible job coaching. lol).

[JayEgdarWho]

And I'm not necessarily on DET -- the value might be with MIA, but I'd think you'd want to get MIA late, or DET early, based on the popularity of the TNT guys and the tendency of the public to overract to the last extreme result. But who the hell knows who the "public" is anymore, or how much they can move the line in the midwinter NBA, even on a weekend.

That's good stuff you're giving us in that post, BTW. Thanks.

EDIT - Looks like Heat -1 or -1.5 to start.

[Razz]

I would be mildly surprised if Miami were to lose this game.

[Illusion]

Pinny has Detroit -1.5 -110 right now.

[Dark Horse]

The thing that worries me about the Heat is that Shaq keeps saying that teams play over their heads when they play Miami... As if Miami is some major inspiration.

Wake up Shaq. Good teams don't have to play over their heads to beat you. It's the other way around. You have to play over your head just to have a shot.

Not sure which planet Shaq lives on these days, but you don't want to have the leader of your team with his head all fogged up about the realities in the NBA.

[Alamorich]

If Miami wants to win they need to sit Shaq big fat arse on the pines and let Zoe swat away shots all day. Shaq is a liability for Miami in this game. Both of the Wallaces can make his life miserable. Riley knows that but does he have the balls to limit Shaq's minutes or even better start Zoe? I don't think so.

[Illusion]

I am shocked the way the line has moved. I thought for sure Detroit would end up a 4 point favorite. It's Det -1 +102 now at Pinny.

[Dark Horse]

2/3rds of the money is on Detroit yet the line has come down from -2 to -1.
The sharps are on Miami.

[JayEgdarWho]

I am shocked the way the line has moved. I thought for sure Detroit would end up a 4 point favorite. It's Det -1 +102 now at Pinny.

Boy I'll say!!! MIA was ML +129 when I went to bed. I'll really be interested to see a reliable report in the trade press about what went on here.

I still think DET will go off as a favorite, but I'll confess that I am not nearly 'sharp' enough to know what's going on.

[Dark Horse]

Now a pk at canbet

[Illusion]

Something is going on because the game is circled at Pinnacle right now.

[Dark Horse]

They're probably just afraid to get sided.

[Illusion]

Detroit is now +1 -107 at Pinnacle.

[onlooker]

Detroit is now +1 -107 at Pinnacle.

I may throw a unit on the Pistons just for value alone. I wonder what is making the swing. Sharps must me hitting the Heat hard , is the only thing I can think of.

[JayEgdarWho]

It doesn't seem to be budging, except a little in the MIA direction.

This is fascinating.

I have a hard time believing that the "sharps":
(a) like MIA
(b) had nothing to do with the SAT PM DET surge and everything to do with the Sun AM MIA surge; or that

(c) somebody isn't going to bring the line at least a little more DET's way in the next few minutes.


My only thought --
sharps like DET, bet it early, then when it swung back this AM decided to take profits then and there. A little stampede of proft talking started in the morning. And it is holding there because public actually likes MIA.

Obviosuly, I am guessing. Completely.

[Dark Horse]

Got a free middle.

Pistons PK +100 and Heat +2.5 +104.

[Dark Horse]

Counting on the Sunday ABC refs to keep it close.

[Illusion]

You gotta love that. I ended up taking Miami.

[JayEgdarWho]

Nice. GL.

Related to your middle,

One thing I was thinking about in all this is whether the swings around +1 and -1 just look more dramatic than they really are to the BM. (Of course the ML swing from +129 to -110 is big, undeniably.) Having something +1.5 vs -1.5 just isn't the difference maker most of the time.

What are the odds that an NBA game lands on 1? Or on 1 or 2? With the 3-pt line and last minute fouls it seems to me that the 1 and 2 point margins are rare, but I have no data. (Other than I remember once looking for the median NBA MOV and discovering it was 9.)

[JayEgdarWho]

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