Sonny, Ayo and Bean's Hoops thread

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Rank Team Region Seed Rating Record v 1-25 v 26-50
1......Ohio St. East.... 1 .....122.0.. 32-2.......3-2 ....11-0
2.....Kansas...S.west..1.....120.7...32-2 .... 3-2.....8-0
3..San Diego S.West. 2.....119.3...30-2......4-2.....3-0
4..Duke......West.......1.....118.6...30-4......3-2.....6-2
5.Pittsburgh.S.west...1.....117.9...27-5......7-4.....3-0
6.Notre Dame S.west.2.....117.5...26-6......9-5.....3-1
7......BYU......Swest...3.....117.3...29-4......6-1.....1-3
8..Texas......West......4.....116.4...27-7......2-4.....6-1
9..Purdue....Swest.....3.....116.3...25-7......2-3.....9-2
10 Uconn.....West.......3....116.1...26-9......8-8.....4-1
11 Syracuse.East........3....115.8...26-7......7-4.....3-2
12 Wisconsin.seast......3...115.6...23-8.......2-4....6-4
13 N. Carolina.east......2...115.2...26-7.......2-3....6-2
14 Louisville...s.east....2...115.1...25-9........8-6...3-1
15 Kentucky..east.......4...115.0...25-8........4-3...2-1
16 Cincinnati..west......6...114.4...25-8........4-7...2-1
17 Florida......s.east.....2...114.2...26-7........2-3....5-0
18 Utah State.s.east....12..114.0...29-3.......0-2....0-0
19 Georgetown.s.east..6...113.9...21-10.....5-9....3-1
20 St Johns.......s.east..6...113.3...21-11.....7-6....2-1
21 West Virgina.east....5...113.2...20-11.....6-5....2-3
22 UNLV..........s.east...8...112.8...24-8......2-6....3-0
23 Kansas st....s.east...5...112.3...21-10....2-4....3-5
24 Old Dominion.s.east.9...112.2...27-6......0-1....4-2
25 Arizona........west...5...112.2...27-7.......0-2....2-3
26 Temple........west...7...112.1...25-7.......1-1....1-4
27 George Mason.east.8...111.8...26-6.......1-1....1-0
28 Xavier.........east.....6...111.8...24-7.......0-3....3-1
29 Richmond.....Swest.12.111.7...27-7.......1-1....1-2
30 Texas A&M...Swest.7..111.6...23-8........1-4....5-0
31 Marquette....east....11.111.5...20-14.....5-10...0-3
32 Michigan......west...8...111.2...19-13.......0-8....8-1
33 Villanova......east....9..111.2...21-11.......4-7....3-0
34 Illinois..........Swest.9..111.1...19-13.......2-6....5-4
35 Missouri.......west...11.111.1...22-10......2-5....3-3
36 Washington..east...7...110.9...23-10......2-2....2-2
37 Belmont.......Swest.13.110.8...30-4........0-0....0-1
38 Vanderbilt....Swest.5..110.8...23-10.......2-5....2-1
39 Penn St........west..10.110.7...19-14.......2-6....3-5
40 Michigan St...Swest.10.110.6..18-14.......2-8....4-5
41 Clemson.......east....12.110.1..21-11.......0-5....2-2 1-0 tournament
42 Florida st......Swest.10.109.8..21-10.......1-4....1-4
45 UCLA...........s.east.7.109.5....22-10........3-2....0-3
46 Gonzaga......s.east.11.109.4..23-9...........0-3...2-1
48 Butler..........s.east.8...109.2..22-9...........0-2...1-1
49 Oakland.......west...13.109.0..24-9...........0-3...0-3
53 Princeton.....east....13.108.7..24-6...........0-1...2-1

54 UAB.............east....12.108.7..22-8...........0-1...0-0
eliminated
55 Georgia.......east....10.108.4..21-11..........1-4...1-4
57 Tennessee.. west...9...108.2..19-14..........1-6...5-1
60 Memphis......west...12..108.0..25-9...........0-2...1-0
63 USC.............swest..11..107.9..19-14.........2-3..2-2
64 VCU.............swest..11..107.8..23-11.........1-2..2-2
77 Bucknell.......west...14..106.4..25-8............0-0..1-2
78 LIU Brooklyn.east....15..106.3..27-5...........0-0..0-0
97 Wofford.........s.east....14...104.4....21-12..............0-1....0-1
102 Morehead st.swest.13..104.2..22-9..........0-2...0-2
105 Indiana St....east..14...104.0..19-13.........0-2...0-2
107 St Peters.....swest.14..103.9..20-13.........0-1...0-1
120 Akron..........swest.15..103.0..22-12.........0-0...0-0
122 N Colorado..west....15.102.9..19-10.........0-1...0-1
152NC Asheville.seast..16...100.7..16-13.........0-3...0-3 1-0 tournament
157 Boston U.....swest..16..100.5..21-13.........0-1...0-2
159UCSB...........seast...15..100.5..16-13.........1-1...0-0
170Hampton......west....16..100.1..23-8.........0-0...0-0

204Ark lit rock....swest...16..97.7...17-16........0-0..0-0
eliminated
213TX-San Ant...east.....16..97.2....16-13.......0-0..0-0
300Alabama St...east.....16..91.5....15-17.......0-0..0-1

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

ya what up sonny i don't like much either going to look more in depth

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

And everybody loves the Cinderella story, as was shown by Butler’s run last year.

So who are the sleepers in this year’s Big Dance? Which team has a legitimate chance to make an unexpected run at the title?

“I think you can make a case for a few lower-seeded teams, but not many, as I do think there is a big gap between the elite teams and the teams on the second level,” handicapper Matt Fargo told Covers.com.

Fargo and a few more of our Covers Experts handicappers took a stab at picking a dark horse to claim the NCAA crown, under this one guideline: the team must be no better than a No. 3 seed.

There wasn’t a consensus, but one team did draw some strong support.

“A possible sleeper in my opinion is Louisville,” Fargo said, alluding to the No. 4 seed in the Southwest Region. “The Cardinals match up very well with the three teams they will/could face. (They’ve got) Morehead State, then the winner of Richmond/Vanderbilt.

“After that, they’d have a date with a very beatable Kansas team, and then Notre Dame, whom they have already defeated in the Big East tournament.”

Marc Lawrence also threw some support behind Louisville (25-9 straight up, 19-11-1 against the spread).

“If I had to peg a sleeper for this year’s tourney, it would be Louisville,” said Lawrence, a veritable human encyclopedia who always brings the stats to back his opinion at Covers Experts. “The Cardinals were 11-2 (SU) in games outside the conference, allowing 62.5 points per game in those contests. Louisville was battle-tested in the super-tough Big East, where they fell in the title game to an unprecedented, record-breaking performance by Connecticut.”

Indeed, the Huskies won five games in five days – four against ranked teams – to claim the Big East crown.

And like Fargo, Lawrence sees Kansas as beatable in the Sweet 16, again with stats to support it.

“Should they hook up with Kansas, the Cardinals would enter the game with plenty of confidence, knowing head coach Rick Pitino is 9-0 SU and ATS in his career in Sweet 16 games,” Lawrence said. “Who knows what can happen from that point forward.”

Fargo said the only potential issue is whether the long-range shots are hitting the mark – typical for a Pitino-coached team.

“Louisville is a team that could fall early or make a big run, and the 3-point shooting will go a long way in determining how far the Cardinals make it,” Fargo said. “If they are hot – and they have that potential – they are an extremely tough out. Pitino is a winner, and after getting blown out in the first round last year, they will be ready this time around.”

Louisville is listed at 30-1 to win it all at the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook.

Sean Murphy stayed within the Bluegrass State for his top sleeper, picking East No. 4 seed Kentucky (25-8 SU, 13-14-1 ATS). The Wildcats are the SEC tourney champs and have won six in a row and eight of their last nine. But Murphy was tepid about their title chances, and the line is 35-1.

“I have Kentucky going the farthest; in fact, I won’t be shocked if the Wildcats reach the Final Four,” Murphy told Covers.com. “But can they win it all once they get to Houston? I don’t think so. They’re simply too inexperienced.”

So Murphy doesn’t see a dark horse cutting down the nets the first week of April.

“To be honest, I think we see a No. 1 seed win it this year,” he said. “For all the talk about parity, I still think there’s a fairly large gap between the ones and twos, and the rest of the field.”

Handicapper Ted Sevransky isn’t sold on any sleepers claiming the NCAA crown, though he does give a little love to Texas (No. 4 in the West) and Syracuse (No. 3 in the East). The Longhorns, a 20-1 shot, are 27-7 SU and 20-9 ATS, while the Orange, with odds of 25-1, are 26-7 SU but just 14-17 ATS.

“No team seeded No. 3 or (below) will win the title this year,” Sevransky said. “Eighteen of the last 21 national championship winners have been No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. This year, the four No. 1 seeds are 3-2 favorites in the betting markets to win it all against the other 64 teams in the field, and some of my own money is on the No. 1 seeds in that particular prop bet.

“That being said, don't sleep on Syracuse or Texas, two teams with the talent to cut down the nets in Houston on April 4. Both the Orange and the Longhorns fit into a statistical profile that compares favorably with recent national champs. Both teams play great defense, win the rebounding battle, play good basketball away from home and have NBA-caliber talent at multiple positions.”

Steve Merril likes Texas quite a bit and thinks Rick Barnes’ troops might just have a big run in them.

“My power ratings still rank them as a top-five team, so their No. 4 seed is way too low,” Merril said. “Just two months ago, the Longhorns were considered the best team in the nation, especially after they beat Kansas outright on the road 74-63 as a 7-point underdog. I also rate the Longhorns as the best defensive team in the nation.”

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good info not mine
e read all the trends. I know No. 12 seeds have a tendency to knock off No. 5 seeds. I know that only four times since 1985 have all of the top four seeds in each region made it out of opening round. I know all four No. 1 seeds have only reached the Final Four once. But what does all that really mean this year?

Nothing.

The NCAA Tournament is about matchups, pure and simple. So if you’re looking to base your bracket on what happened to a random No. 13 seed in 1985, I’d suggest moving on now (or challenging me to a bracket contest).

For those of you interested in winning, here are 68 things you should know about the field of 68.

Who the sharps bet early

(From Monday interview with MGM Mirage sportsbook)

1. Georgia: “Everyone was talking Washington, but we got sharp action on UGA,” said MGM Mirage sports book manager Jay Rood.

2. UC-Santa Barbara. Florida opened at 13.5 but was dropped quickly to 12.5 after early sharp action.

3. Princeton: Despite Kentucky’s impressive performance in the SEC tournament, wise guys are more impressed by Princeton’s late surge. Kentucky opened as a 14.5-point favorite, before being reduced to -13.5 Monday.

4. Michigan State: UCLA actually opened up as a small 1-point favorite at some offshore books, but the Spartans were the favorites within minutes of the line being posted.

5. Bucknell: Wise guys must believe Kemba Walker and UConn are spent from their Big East Tournament run. This line has dropped from -11.5 down to -10.

6. Old Dominion: “This was the biggest play of them all,” said Rood. “We opened Butler at -1, but are now dealing ODU -2.)

Best, worst, least and most in the field

7. Best ATS performer: George Mason 22-8 ATS. The Patriots were 15-7-2 ATS entering the 2006 NCAA tournament, where they reached the Final Four.

8. Worst ATS performer: Michigan State 11-20-1 ATS.

9. Lowest Power Rating team: covers.com/sports/power-ranking/ncaab-power-ranking.aspx have Alabama State at 306 and NC Asheville at 239. Pomeroy has Alabama State at 295. Sagarin Predictor has Alabama State at 308.

10. Toughest non-conference strength of Schedule: Oakland - No. 3 (Pomeroy)

11. Easiest non-conference strength of schedule: Cincinnati - No. 335

12. Toughest overall strength of schedule: Michigan State - 1

13. Easiest overall strength of schedule: Alabama State - 340

14. Team that commits fewest fouls: Ohio State - 14.3 per game

15. Most 3-pointers per game: Belmont - 9.4 per game

16. Fewest 3-pointers per game: Old Dominion - 4.9 per game

17. Most overs: Oakland 20-9-1. The Golden Grizzlies played a difficult non-conference schedule that included six games against tournament teams. Five of those six went over the total.

18. Best tournament bet: Xavier is 10-2-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the past five years, the best mark in the nation.

19. Worst tournament bet: Gonzaga is 3-7 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the past five seasons.

20. Most tournament overs: Pittsburgh and Xavier have each produced nine overs compared to only four unders in the last five NCAA Tournaments

21. Most tournament unders: UCLA is 5-10 over/under in the NCAA Tournament over the last five years.

22. Best free-throw shooting team: Wisconsin - 82.4 percent.

23. Worst free-throw shooting team: Alabama State - 59.5 percent.

24. Lowest scoring margin: Penn State plus-0.5

25. Highest scoring team: Oakland - 85.6. Washington is second at 85.6.

26. Lowest scoring team: Alabama State - 60.8

27. Fewest points allowed: Utah State - 58.0. Old Dominion is second at 58.3.

28. Most points allowed: Oakland - 76.6

29. Best rebounding margin: Old Dominion is out-rebounding opponents by 12.2 per game, tops in the nation.

30. Worst rebounding margin: Hampton has been out-rebounded by 4.2 per game.

31. Best turnover margin: Missouri at plus-5.5.

32. Worst turnover margin: UCLA at minus-2.8.

Strength of schedule mismatches

33. Duke No. 22 vs. Hampton No. 342.
34. North Carolina No. 10 vs. Long Island No. 315.
35. Wisconsin No. 14 vs. Belmont No. 290.
36. UConn No. 7 vs. Bucknell No. 251.
37. Penn State No. 2 vs. Temple No. 85.

Teams not at full strength

38. St. John’s – The Red Storm lost guard/forward D.J. Kennedy in the Big East tournament to a torn ACL. Kennedy leads St. John’s in rebounding and is third in scoring.

39. Temple – The Owls are down to seven players after losing center Micheal Eric to a fractured right patella. Forward Scooting Randall missed the last seven games with a foot injury and is questionable to play against Penn State.

40. BYU – Leading rebounder Brandon Davies was booted for the team for violating the school’s honor code on March 2. The Cougars are 2-3 ATS without Davies.

41. Duke – All eyes are on freshman point guard Kyrie Irving. The talented NBA prospect injured a toe on his left foot and only recently got his walking boot off. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has repeatedly said Irving will not play, but signs seem to indicate that he could play at some point during the tournament. The Blue Devils are 13-12 ATS without Irving.

42. Florida State – Best player Chris Singleton broke his right foot on Feb. 12 and was expected to miss the remainder of the season. But Singleton says he can play in the tournament, but an official announcement had not been made by Tuesday morning. The Seminoles are 4-1-1 ATS without Singleton.

43. Georgetown – Senior point guard Chris Wright is expected to return for the Hoyas in Friday’s opener, but he’s only three weeks removed from breaking his hand. How effective will he be? Georgetown can’t be any worse with him at less than 100 percent than it was without him. The Hoyas went 0-3, averaging only 53 points a game.

Odds/Ends

44. Belmont commits the most fouls of any team in the field at 20.8 per game. Wisconsin leads the nation in free-throw percentage at 82.4.

45. I was very impressed with Clemson, even in blowing a lead in the ACC Tournament to North Carolina and costing me money.

46. Clemson went 2-7 against tournament teams this season, 1-5-2 ATS.

47. Old Dominion gets nearly all its scoring from inside the 3-point arc. Butler ranks 325th in blocks with just 1.6 per game.

48. Wofford lost in overtime to Air Force, a team BYU wolloped by 38 points in February.

49. Arkansas-Little Rock is the shortest team to make the field. The Trojans have a handful of regulars that stand 6-foot or shorter.

50. Ohio State is 15-2 against tournament teams this season, but just 9-7 ATS in those wins (No line was archived on win over UNC-Asheville).

51. Marquette is 6-13 against tournament teams, but 10-7 ATS in those wins (No line against Bucknell).

52. Utah State coach Stew Morril hasn’t won a postseason tournament game (NCAA, NIT) since 2001 (0-11). The Aggies are 3-8 ATS during that stretch.

53. There’s been a lot of whining about the winner of Tuesday’s First-Four game between Clemson and UAB having to play late Tuesday night, hop on a plane and fly from Dayton to Tampa to play West Virginia around noon on Thursday. Look for oddsmakers to inflate the Mountaineers as the favorite.

My top second-round bets

54. Villanova +1.5
55. Penn State +2.5
56. Cal-Santa Barbara +13
57. Duke -22.5
58. Over 143.5 Wofford-BYU
59. Vanderbilt -2
60. San Diego State -15.5
61. Marquette +2

My Final Four

62. Louisville
63. Ohio State
64. Duke
65. Florida

My Final 2

66. Ohio State
67. Louisville

My National Champion

68. Buckeyes +350

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

1half fla int +6 1x
witch st -3 1half 1x
1half maimi /fla int o/u 61 over 1x

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

1half celtics o/u 99 under 1x

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

1half wich st cash 40 -20 1half score

[Titan_12]

Going with VCU +5 tonight

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

1half valpo -.5 1x
st bonnies +8 1x

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Going with VCU +5 tonight

ya i like usc in that one so far but not sure yet

[YOUNGBUCK]

VCU +2.5 1h 5x
1h under 59.5 5x
Colorado -11 1h 5x

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

ya i like vcu but usc on the boards will be a problem but vcu in the 1half should be a good bet with them coming out strong looking to prove the belong but 2half i think usc pulls it out

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

like the bets buck good luck

[lux4227]

Any thoughts on taking Colorado -11 1 Half?

[YOUNGBUCK]

Thx bean u too

You like Duquesne

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

1half vcu +2.5 1x
1half o/u vcu /usc under 59.5 1x

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck guys

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

ya i like colo but duquene not sure with montana

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

ya iwas trying to put in cal 1half and montana 1half but the book said it was off to late

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

going to bet both 2half see anything at 10 pm games guys we have to watch out and see who is going to show up for the smaller tourneys

[YOUNGBUCK]

I like san fran bean wat u think

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Not sure buck gonna wait and see at half my computer froze up sorry didn't answer sooner

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

2half montana -3 .5x at home down 14 should get it closer

[YOUNGBUCK]

Damn wanted Duquesne ml couldnt get it....

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

HUGE STEAL BUCK HELL YA AND THREE POINTER TO BOOTAND THE UNDER

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

What you think about the dallas g st game? Or i like phillly at the clippers

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Leaning dallas and over and philly

[YOUNGBUCK]

HUGE STEAL BUCK HELL YA AND THREE POINTER TO BOOTAND THE UNDER

Cash both and Colorado 1h
Wats next bean

[YOUNGBUCK]

GoldenGreek is on fire and really likes warriors

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

What you like in 2half vcu and under ?/? Leaning vcu they are playing hard

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

NOT SURE BRO CASH BOTH GREAT JOB BUCK

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

1half dallas -2 or o/u 1half 107 over ??? In g st

[YOUNGBUCK]

Ya like VCU too look like they want it under scary cuz pace is somewhat fast

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Ya it is a fast pace and they are shaking off the nerves and foul shots in a tight game will add to the total AND THEY ARE FINDING THERE SHOOTS

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

1half dallas -2 .5x