Snowballing profits on NBA daily

[Snowball]

Wut up dogs, rather than post my picks on other guys boards
I'm going to begin posting them on this new thread..
cuz i don't wanna confuse anyone who wants to concentrate on the plays
of others.. so if anyone's curious what ol Snow is on, here's the place.


To make this easy I will only post plays against the spread. Sure I often
arrange ML's and teasers, but the combinations are often too extensive to
post. It is better to just post the lean ATS. All picks at current ATS line.

Only two different types of plays, 1 unit and 2 unit.

DETROIT +1 1 unit
BOSTON +2 1 unit

[Snowball]

2-0 last night.

tonight: PHX @ MEM (UNDER 213.5) 1 unit

Memphis lost to Phoenix at Phoenix just last Friday.
Tonight is at Memphis. people are looking at the 2OT score.
Final was 123-118 (241), yet 43 of those pts occured in overtime.
241-43 is 198. Tonight's o/u is 213.
Both teams shot a little off last Friday
FG Phoenix 42%, Memphis 46%. 3pt PHX 40% MEM 31%.
Phoenix is averaging .479 FG, Memphis .450
3pt Phoenix .395, Memphis .385
what I'll do is call FT's a wash, and consider this theorem:
with the line at 213, 213-198 = 15. 15/198= (-.07575 %) under the line.
if we calculate the shooting differentials from the prior game sample to the average,
[(.479-.42)=.(-059)] [(.395-.4)=(+.005)] PHX
[(.45-.46)=(+.01)] [(.385-.31)=(-.075)] MEM
the mean differential is these added then divided by the 4 subsets.
= (-.02975) which is a far cry from (-.07575 %) needed to justify OVER 213
based on shooting percentages of these teams.

I approached this possible play at first thinking about how Memphis will
try to play better defense at home, to avenge the OT loss last Friday.
Last total at home for MEM was 191, in a 100-91 win over SAC.

p.s. line move to 213.5 from 213 while doing this. Retail betting on the Over.

[ParlayKing]

whats your record so far snowball? from a couple glances your definitely in the green right now. keep it buddy!

[PUDS]

nice write up Snowball !
Tailing you tonight got it a 214 on sportinteraction

[Snowball]

whats your record so far snowball? from a couple glances your definitely in the green right now. keep it buddy!

i'm off to a good start this year in NBA with my posts on other threads. didn't keep track til now with this thread, so however i do will be public here. going only ATS on the plays. although for myself I did buy a half pt 214 (-120) I guess that's unnecessary at some books already 214. I just prefer even numbers on my basketball plays. in college tonight i'm doing a Rhode Island,
Navy/Texas Over 5-pt tease.

[Snowball]

this o/u line is now 215 at my book (vip) and at sbr.
public just blindly hammering the over.
i'll be sprinkling some additional.

PLAY UPGRADE - 2 units PHX @ MEM ( UNDER 215)

[ParlayKing]

Good stuff, I will be checking in daily for analsyst and picks!

For tonight, i like san antonio to cover the -4 spread. Might be a square play, but charlotte has shown us no improvement this season with the fact that they're missing raymond felton . I can understand the factor that they 1-5 right now and they need this game to stay on track but can they hold their own against a tough spurs team?

[dom75]

BOL snowball, will be trackin ya myself too

[Snowball]

Final MEM 109 PHX 99 (208)
+2 u
4-0 thread rec.

[Snowball]

Miami -9 (-110) 1 unit play

[sonnybaby]

wat up snow

[Snowball]

wat up snow

hey Sonny, going with the Heat tonight, they've had a few days to
plan ahead and practice. Bosh is still working into his role. Wade and Bron
will be eager for an impressive victory heading into the Thursday night
stand vs Celtics, and they are coming off a road trip with significant rest.
fyi I'm also 99% likely to fade the Jazz tomorrow night @ Orlando.

[Snowball]

Minnesota +17.5 1 unit.

can't believe the Heat breakdown.
then Wade fouls with 1 second to go in OT. what a stupid.

[No coincidences]

Nice work, Snow.

[Snowball]

5-1.

New York Knicks -3.5 1 unit
Dallas Mavericks +1.5 1 unit

[Snowball]

Knicks are now -3. This game started at -5.
Monta Ellis has a bad back, Stephen Curry's ankle is prob. still not 100%.
Even if Lee and Stoudemire cancel each other out,
Knicks are shooting better lately, and I like their chances to cover.
D'Antoni coaching skills help win this matchup at MSG.

Knicks -3 upped to 2 units.

[No coincidences]

Do you like the under in the GS/NY game, Snow?

That total has risen by an absurd amount -- 8 points from open.

[Snowball]

went 1-1 last night but for record it's 1-2 cuz i upped Knicks to 2u.
overall now 6-3.

all 3 plays tonight are 1u

Boston +7
Chicago -6.5
Lakers -3

[Snowball]

2-1 last night.. ( 8-4 )

tonight two 2-unit plays.

Indiana -4
Detroit +1

Yao, Aaron Brooks out for Rockets.
Gordon, Kaman out for Clippers.

[Snowball]

2-2 last night (10-6)

Indiana +2 @ Cleveland (Varejao, Williams questionable) 1 unit
Celtics -2.5 @ Grizzlies 2 units

[Snowball]

3-0 night (13-6 overall)

[Snowball]

One pretty strong play today.

Lakers -5 1h. 2 units.

Phil Jackson is still upset with his team blowing that lead in Denver.
they return home with some rest.. I see them playing quality defense
and eager to push for an early lead tonight.
Steve Nash's wife had his first son and he also announced
a divorce from his wife all within the last 3 days. I fade that on a Sunday.

[y2kr1000]

Is that the same Steve that shot 13 of 18 from the field with 28 points less than 2 days ago? There are alot of people out there that are able to perform 110% even with an outside distraction. I teased Phoenix to +10.5 for added security but feel they keep this one within the spread. Best of luck with the first half bet. Lakers have been known to blow big leads after half time.

[Snowball]

Is that the same Steve that shot 13 of 18 from the field with 28 points less than 2 days ago? There are alot of people out there that are able to perform 110% even with an outside distraction. I teased Phoenix to +10.5 for added security but feel they keep this one within the spread. Best of luck with the first half bet. Lakers have been known to blow big leads after half time.

that was against Sacramento. apples and oranges. plus it was on a Friday night
the same night he made these announcements. Today is Sunday and I'm sure
there's more distraction. He's the point guard so if he has any hesitation the whole Suns offense will be affected. My play is just as much a stand on the
Lakers on both sides of the ball. Good luck on your play late in the game
there's always room for a back door cover unless it's a blowout, which is
entirely possible also in this game.

[BernardMadoff]

Dont forget the basketball court are these guys sanctuaries. Dang Nash must have found out the kid isnt his or something.

[Snowball]

Dont forget the basketball court are these guys sanctuaries. Dang Nash must have found out the kid isnt his or something.

i think Friday night was his sanctuary but now that it's out
with all day to chew on and the ex-wife on his ass and the reality of it
all he could be affected, Lakers are a defense that can exploit weakness
Sacramento is not.
we shall see. not a bad pick even without this angle
it's a sparse card, i'll tell ya the Steelers are my biggest play of the night
north dakota doing it too.
Only like Lakers -5 1stH not for game, can see Richardson draining a 3 for a late
game cover if the Lakers play to cruise through the 4th

[Snowball]

lost 2 u. (13-8)
Suns sank the 2nd most 3's in a single game in NBA history.
who woulda thunk it.

One pick: Memphis +8.5 @ Orlando. 2 units.

Minnesota has 4 players returning Wedsnesday vs. Clippers, i will not touch them tonight.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/injuries

[rask7rask7]

nice record so far. congrats

[ParlayKing]

Snowball, i realize that ur current record is 13-8, however previous it was 13-6 before the lakers -5 first half lost. So you keep your record based on units? after a unit win or a unit loss you would track it accordingly to the amount of units rather than the play itself? just curious, thanks

[Snowball]

Snowball, i realize that ur current record is 13-8, however previous it was 13-6 before the lakers -5 first half lost. So you keep your record based on units? after a unit win or a unit loss you would track it accordingly to the amount of units rather than the play itself? just curious, thanks

I will stop the 2 unit plays.. it's too confusing. Looking at my posted plays
as all 1-unit, I've got my record at (10-6). you can doublecheck if you want.

Tonight I am going to go with the Grizzlies. I know it's b2b, but they are
a young team, and these last two losses were to Boston, Orlando.
I can see them pulling out a home win against the Trailblazers.
They should find it a welcome change to face Portland's defense after
just playing against two of the best defenses in the NBA.

Grizzlies -2.

p.s. if the Grizz loses this game, I'll be looking at them with a downgraded eye.
how many excuses are they entitled to ?

[Snowball]

edit: Grizz -1.

get that home W boys.. lean on Brandon Roy's knee..
Tony Allen be the hit man.

[gwiz]

I like the grizz a bit too,

GL

[Aussiecapper101]

[Snowball]

(10-7)
Grizz dissapointed. Even without Brandon Roy the Blazers were too much for
them, maintaining a lead all game to finish 100-99. Grizz need a perimeter shooter.
I won't be taking them for a long time. Team has issues in talent and coaching.

[Snowball]

going with these

Miami -7.5
Dallas +4.5

edit: scratched Spurs.
edit: scratched Wizards.