Duncan's NBA Value Plays

[DuncHen22]

I've been having some mild success with my NHL picks (shown here) using AccuScore's predictions so I thought I would try it out with NBA. I did it today (although I didn't track it on here...sorry) and ended up 7-7 +3.64 units (I varied the number of units based on strength of the play).

If you don't believe me on the NBA plays, fine (although why would I lie about a 50% record?). But I will start tracking it now and see how I do.

I'm also trying this system on college football and the NFL this weekend.

Once again, this is just for tracking purposes and this is an unproven test so use caution if you choose to follow this. I would not recommend it right now (I'm not even putting real money on these).

[DuncHen22]

Just for your information and if it's any consolation for not sharing my picks earlier, here were my picks from yesterday:

Pacers -1.5 (1.5 unit) LOSS
Nets +16.5 (2.5u)WIN
76ers under 188 (1u)LOSS
Pistons +1(2u)WIN
Bulls +8(1u)WIN
TWolves +7 (1u)LOSS
TWolves ML +270 (1u) LOSS
TWolves Under 205 (1.5u)LOSS
Hornets +6.5 (1.5u)WIN
Hornets under 187 (1u)LOSS
Suns -5.5 (2.5u)LOSS
Suns over 209(2u)WIN
Nuggets over 205.5 (1u)WIN
Warriors +2.5 (3u)WIN

7-7 (50%) +3.64 units

[mlb]

Good luck on these plays

[DuncHen22]

Saturday's picks:

Cavs +4.5 (1u)
Heat over 188.5 (1u)
Bucks over 187 (1u)
Jazz over 206.5 (1u)
Raptors +12.5 (2u)
Kings over 210.5 (1u)

[DuncHen22]

Saturday's picks:

Cavs +4.5 (1u) WIN
Heat over 188.5 (1u)WIN
Bucks over 187 (1u)LOSS
Jazz over 206.5 (1u)WIN
Raptors +12.5 (2u)LOSS
Kings over 210.5 (1u)LOSS

3-3 -1.4 units.

Raptors missed it by .5 a point! Oh well. The march continues.

[DuncHen22]

Let's try it again:

Hawks under 208 (1.5u)
Warriors ML -118 (1.5u)
Rockets -9 (2u)
Celtics ML +123 (1u)
Thunder under 197.5 (1u)

BOL!

[sweetjones55]

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[BobbyXxX]

good luck

[DuncHen22]

Let's try it again:

Hawks under 208 (1.5u) LOSS
Warriors ML -118 (1.5u) LOSS
Rockets -9 (2u) WIN
Celtics ML +123 (1u) WIN
Thunder under 197.5 (1u) WIN

3-2 +0.58 Units. Meh, could have been a lot worse. Could've been like my NFL picks today.

[DuncHen22]

Spurs ML -170 (1.5u)
Charlotte under 187.5 (1u)
Teaser: Suns +9, over 208 (1u)

If you Can't get the SA/CHA lines, try a 4pt teaser on Spurs ATS and the under.

[DuncHen22]

Adding:
Magic under 194 (1.5u)

[DuncHen22]

Spurs ML -170 (1.5u) WIN
Charlotte under 187.5 (1u) WIN
Teaser: Suns +9, over 208 (1u) LOSS
Magic under 194 (1.5u) WIN

3-1 +2.9 UNITS. Missed Suns teaser by 1 pt on the over and 2 pts on the spread. I'll take it though. See ya tomorrow.

[DuncHen22]

11/9

Heat over 192 (1u)
Pacers under 209 (1u)
Nets ML -125 (1u)
MIL over 195.5 (1u)

[DuncHen22]

Adding:

Pacers +1 (1u)

[DuncHen22]

11/9

Heat over 192 (1u) WIN
Pacers under 209 (1u) LOSS
Nets ML -125 (1u) LOSS
MIL over 195.5 (1u) LOSS
Pacers +1 (1u) WIN

2-3 -1.45 units

I knew from the beginning I shouldn't have played the Pacers under but AccuScore was calling for it so I had to put it down. At least I'm still in the black with NBA.

[DuncHen22]

11/10:

Bucks +6.5 (1u)
Raptors ML +100 (2u)
Cavs ML -185 (2.5u)
Wizards over 210 (1.5u)
Grizzlies over 196.5 (1.5u)
76ers +9 (1u)

I don't know about the wisdom of laying down 4.6 units on the Cavs tonight to win 2.5 units, but like I always say I'm just playing what the system puts out right now. Cavs have great value at the spread of -4.5 also, but this was the more valuable play (ATS play was only a 2 unit play).

Also, the two total plays are both going against the line movement but we'll play them anyway.

[DuncHen22]

3-3 -4.78 units

I knew from the start the Cavs call was terribly stupid.

It's looking bad but really the NFL and CFB is what's breaking my bank. Hopefully I'll have a good weekend there to even things out...

[DuncHen22]

One play tonight:

Nuggets ML +140 (1.5u)

[DuncHen22]

What a great game! There was a point when the Nugs were down 9 that I thought about taking the in-game ML of +545. Oh well, I know that probably would have just been a gamble. This gets me back into the positive side so I'll take that too!

[DuncHen22]

11/12

Pacers -4.5 (1.5u)
Wizards -1 (2u)
Magic under 202 (2u)
Suns over 216 (1.5u)

[DuncHen22]

Jesus. You'd think I'd at least get one.

[DuncHen22]

Let's try this again.

Bobcats +1.5 (2u)
Cavs ML -128 (1.5u)
Bulls -10.5 (1.5u)
Celtics -3 (1u)
Grizzlies under 196.5 (1u)
Hornets under 187.5 (1u)
76ers +9.5 (1u)