Haser's NBA Plays (2010-2011)

[haserfauld]

Hey guys,

Some of you may remember me from last year with RoagBetter. We were the teaser crew. We were moderately successful on that, although I cashed out early because I did a semester abroad. I'm back, and I'm looking to start small. I don't like betting day 1, but it's what we do.

Two plays tonight:

Lakers 1Q ML: 1.6 @ -160 to win 1 (LOSS)

(Houston +14 / Boston +9 / Portland +1): 1.3 @ -130 to win 1 (WIN)

Total: 2.9 to win 2

YTD: 1-0-1 -0.6U

[haserfauld]

I loved the rockets tonight, but not by this much! Killed the 1Q bet.

2nd half, adding: LAL / HOU Over 97.5 1U @ -110 to win .9U (WIN)

Free throw fest in the 4th pushes this over.

YTD: 2-0-1 +0.3U

[haserfauld]

Not a great night, but anything positive is helpful. I had LA Tech +40 in college ball, so positive action there, but I'm not going to count that for the purpose of my NBA thread.

Hope everyone had a decent night in NBA!

[Bones33]

nice work!

[haserfauld]

nice work!

[haserfauld]

Initial leans tonight:

Miami 1Q -2


Still looking at a 3-teamer, but it would probably include Miami -1 and OKC +1. Normally I don't tease through 0, but I love Kevin Durant here to want to show off, looking at his first MVP run.

[haserfauld]

Plays tonight:

Heat -2 1Q: 1U @ -120 to win 0.8U (WIN)

3-team / 7pt teaser (Bucks +10 / OKC pk / Spurs -1.5): 1U @ -120 to win 0.8U (WIN)

Normally I tease the dogs, but OKC looks solid to me. For the Spurs, I could have gone either way, decided to roll with the home team. Good luck!

YTD: 5-0-1 +1.9U

[haserfauld]

One down, one to go. Possibly more later!

[haserfauld]

Looks like Miami 3Q might be the play for a while. They come out in beast mode. took it personally, but not counting it as I didn't post it. Possibly more plays later.

[haserfauld]

Adding:

Atlanta +2 3Q: 1U @ -110 to win .9U (WIN)

YTD: 6-0-1 +2.8U

[haserfauld]

Solid night so far. Depending on the line, I'm looking at POR second half. If it's + anything I'll take it.

[haserfauld]

Small degenerate play on POR pk tonight, but not an official play. Tail at your own risk!

[haserfauld]

Heat -2 1Q: 1U @ -120 to win 0.8U (WIN)

3-team / 7pt teaser (Bucks +10 / OKC pk / Spurs -1.5): 1U @ -120 to win 0.8U (WIN)

Atlanta +2 3Q: 1U @ -110 to win .9U (WIN)

Sweep tonight!

YTD: 6-0-1 +2.8U


Portland 2nd half also cashed, and I tailed LB with GS -2.5, as well as GS TT over 55 2nd half. I did have Indy +9 though, costing me a perfect night. But I can't complain!

[haserfauld]

Only lean for tomorrow: ORL 1Q if I can get it at -3

Otherwise, probably no plays.

[HawkEye]

Solid!!! Keep em coming.

[haserfauld]

Solid!!! Keep em coming.

Line for tonight is -4. It's a little high, but I still like it. Orlando was the 4th best 1Q team, winning on average by +3.1 points. Washington was the 5th worst, losing on average by -2.8. By my math, that's a differential of 6 points. Although, the fact that the 1Q ML is -350 while the spread is just 4 makes me think the books expect orlando to win, but not necessarily by 4. I don't see this line moving at all, so I think this is the number we'll have to decide about.

[haserfauld]

Adding:

ORL -4 1Q: 1U @ -110 to win .9U

Maybe a later play on a total.

[HawkEye]

Take it to the bank. Way too easy. Good stuff bro.

[haserfauld]

Adding:

ORL -4 1Q: 1U @ -110 to win .9U (WIN)

Maybe a later play on a total.

Easy money. I was out for dinner, so I missed the halftime & 2nd game, but maybe a 2nd half play on utah coming up. We'll see.

YTD: 7-0-1 +3.7u

[haserfauld]

Degenerate play: PHO +4 3Q

Don't like it enough to make it a real play, so tail at your own risk!

[HawkEye]

No play for me. Already got pho +7.5

[haserfauld]

No play for me. Already got pho +7.5

Lucky push for me on that degenerate bet.

PHO +7.5 looks like easy money though, well done

[haserfauld]

Initial lean, ORL +ANYTHING 1st Q. Miami was the 2nd worst NBA team 1st Q last year, and that trend is looking to continue, as they have been awful thus far. Orlando was fourth best, winning on average by over 3 points. Tonight, they won by 14. I don't necessarily like them for the game, but I'll take Orlando with points in the 1st quarter every time.

[haserfauld]

Also, for a 3-teamer, looking at: Orlando +10, Suns +12, Dallas -3

I think the Heat may win this one, but I don't see Orlando getting dominated. They're playing with a purpose, and they REALLY want to show that Miami is not a shoe-in. Even if they don't win it, I see them fight to the end and not lose by double-digits.

Suns are back-to-back, but this is their home opener against a team they almost beat in the playoffs last year. They've been solid so far, and my Lakers LOVE to put up the minimal effort required.

Memphis is hurting. Anytime there's a double-digit favorite, I'll take them under the -4 key number 9 times out of ten.


This play isn't official yet, but I like the looks of it.

[haserfauld]

Only official play today, adding:

Orlando +1 1Q: 1U @ -110 to win .9U

I work till 6:30, then hit a holloween party, so no later action. BOL to everyone

Degenerate play:

Celtics -2
Denver + 7.5
Lakers +2

Again, rarely tease through 0, but I'm from LA and we'll be watching the lakers game at the party tonight, so it's mostly just an action play.


And, if the Lakers are within 4 points at half, take them 3rd quarter. If Miami is down at all, or not up by more than 4, take them 3rd quarter as well.

[haserfauld]

Only official play today, adding:

Orlando +1 1Q: 1U @ -110 to win .9U (WIN)

Degenerate play: DAL ML 3Q

YTD: 8-0-1 +4.6U

[haserfauld]

And I guess that's why I call it a degenerate play. :\

[HawkEye]

Yeah Good job still with orlando +1 1q. Fireeee

[haserfauld]

Adding:

OKC 1Q ML: 1U @ -160 to win .6U

-2 is probably safe, but I just feel like taking the ML to be safe.

[haserfauld]

Adding:

OKC 1Q ML: 1U @ -160 to win .6U (LOSS)

-2 is probably safe, but I just feel like taking the ML to be safe.

Ugh, OKC sucking the sausage


YTD: 8-0-2 +3.6U

[diegoelmestre]

nice season start

keep doing great job

[haserfauld]

nice season start

keep doing great job

Thanks man. I hate it when I get gun shy after posting a losing pick, because I had Miami 3Q, Dallas 3Q, Utah 2nd half, and Lakers and all 4 hit, but I didn't post any of them because I lost confidence haha

Probably more because I had a rough day in the NFL. I think I've hit over 80% of my NBA plays so far, but only about 40% of my NFL. Might be time to stop betting football! Oh well, 8-2 is an acceptable start!

[haserfauld]

Adding:

Boston -2 1Q: 1U @ -110 to win .9U

Degenerate play: MIN +5 1Q

[haserfauld]

adding:

boston -2 1q: 1u @ -110 to win .9u (win)

ytd: 9-0-2 +4.5u

[HawkEye]

Thinkin about lakers -3 1q