Laker_crazy's Official ( NBA season Thread 2017)

**svhd** · 11-22-13, 10:32 PM

**Laker_crazy** · 11-23-13, 12:50 AM

curry backed out last moment.hmm !

**NBA Maniac** · 11-23-13, 06:12 AM

Laker the loss of Gasol so early was very bad for us

**Laker_crazy** · 11-23-13, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by NBA Maniac

Laker the loss of Gasol so early was very bad for us

Curry not playing just killed it totally,been on the receiving so far this season,this is when the true test of your character comes out,the days that i have had last few days with those bad beats,most people would have lost their entire bankrolling chasing losses,that's where the belief kicks in,when i know that i am doing it right,sooner or later i am bound to go on a good run,just waiting for that to happen ! Good Luck mate

**Laker_crazy** · 11-23-13, 06:41 PM

LAKER_CRAZY'S NBA PLAY NUMBER 1 FOR TONIGHT ( 23/11/2013)

( 2 UNIT PLAY)

1) Boston Celtics Vs Atlanta Hawks ( Pick Boston Celtics + 9.5 @ -110) : No time for a write up,but i like Boston here to get the cover,the hawks are due a letdown game at home and this is it.Good Luck

Cheers,

Laker_crazy

**Laker_crazy** · 11-23-13, 06:49 PM

LAKER_CRAZY'S NBA PLAYS NUMBER 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 FOR TONIGHT

( 2 UNIT PLAYS)

2) Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers ( Pick Game Totals UNDER 196 @ -110)

3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets ( Pick Game Totals OVER 215 @ -110)

4) Milwaukee Bucks vs Charlotte Bobcats ( Pick Milwaukee Bucks -2 @ -110)

5) Cleveland Cavaliers Vs San Antonio Spurs ( Pick San Antonio Spurs Team Totals OVER 102.5 @ -115) ( 1 UNIT PLAY)

Cheers & Good Luck

LC

**Laker_crazy** · 11-23-13, 06:50 PM

Good Luck to all on their plays tonight !

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 11-23-13, 07:26 PM

is harden playing? heard some rumours he might be out

**davopnz** · 11-23-13, 07:51 PM

harden is out, line is 213.5 now

**WhyWhat55** · 11-23-13, 09:54 PM

Spurs blowing Cleveland out. Need 39 points I think next half, might not happen if they put in scrubs.

**Laker_crazy** · 11-23-13, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by WhyWhat55

Spurs blowing Cleveland out. Need 39 points I think next half, might not happen if they put in scrubs.

Spurs already have 80 midway through the 3rd..they need 22 points in 1 and a half quarters..shouldn't be a problem !

**davopnz** · 11-23-13, 10:43 PM

how sickening was that rockets game, 2 points for a push with 1:06 left and absolutely nothing

**TheDonger** · 11-24-13, 12:13 AM

@Laker_crazy

One question: I always wonder what is the point of playing less unit on a game. Let me explain myself, the reasoning that I understand from people is the following. These picks have a lower % winrate. Therefor, you put in less money because you feel like your edge is lower.

From that point I'm assuming that this is your thought process. If yes, then keep reading, if not please explain the reason behind this.

I get that perspective, but it doesn't make sense in a math perspective. Let me show you why. Let's take the following example. You have 3 kind of picks. The one you have a hudge edge on (3 units), the normal edge (2 units), and the low edge (1 units).

In that example, 1 unit is worth 100$ and all play are made -110 odds. (110$ to win 100$). You have the following result at the end of 1000 games for each type:

System "Different unit size"
Bet type "Gold" = 3 units play : 650/350 Win : 79 500$ (65 000$ x 3) - (38 500$ x 3)
Bet type "Silver" = 2 units play : 600/400 Win : 32 000$ (60 000$ x 2) - (44 000$ x 2)
Bet type "Bronze" = 1 units play : 550/450 Win : 5 500$ (55 000$ - 49 500$)
Total : 117 000$

At a first glance you would be right to do so. Bet less when you have lower % of winning. But imagine on second that you bet 3 units on each play let's see what's the result :

System "Same unit size"
Bet type "Gold" = 3 units play : 650/350 Win : 79 500$ (65 000$ x 3) - (38 500$ x 3)
Bet type "Silver" = 3 units play : 600/400 Win : 48 000$ (60 000$ x 3) - (44 000$ x 3)
Bet type "Bronze" = 3 units play : 550/450 Win : 16 500$ (55 000$ x 3) - (49 500$ x 3)
Total : 144 000$

Result :

System "Different unit size" : 117 000
-
System "Same unit size" 144 000
=
-27 000$

This means that for a 100$/unit bettors, they would lose 27 000$ on a 3000 games sample varying unit size. My conclusion is the following: The only pragmatic/rational reason I see for reducing a bet size is if it's a losing (negative) one. Even if you're bet type has a 0.01% ROI you should still use the same bet unit since you get 2x or 3x your profit!

Am I missing something? After reading my analysis, don't you think that varying your bet units hurt your total profit?

Anyway thanks again for you picks, I really enjoy them. We're back on the winning train.
Cheers,

**Laker_crazy** · 11-24-13, 11:17 AM

The Rockets game was ridiculous..this has what has been happening past week or so..nights that should have been 3-2 end up going 2-3 and so on,however i shall continue in the same vein,updating my record and moving on to tonight.Cheers !

**Laker_crazy** · 11-24-13, 12:21 PM

Hello everyone,

Let us Recap Last night i.e 23/11/2013 :

We Had 5 pays worth 9 Units at stake :

Our Plays went ( 2-3) ( Adding a Loss of - 3.45 Units to Our Bankroll)

Cheers,

Laker_crazy

NBA Season Record ( 2013-2014) as on 22/11/2013 = 28-0-35 ( - 13.70 Units)

Game Totals ( 15-0-16) ( -3.80 Units)
Point Spread ( 5-0-10) ( - 8.80 Units)
Team Totals ( 4-0-4) (-1.95 Units)
Player Props ( 1-0-3) ( -4.25 Units)
Money Line ( 2-0-0) ( + 4.10 Units)
Half Spread ( 1-0-1) ( +.80 Units)

**Laker_crazy** · 11-24-13, 12:22 PM

Might have a play on the early game,will post in a bit!

**Laker_crazy** · 11-24-13, 01:00 PM

LAKER_CRAZY'S NBA TWO SUNDAY EARLY PLAYS ( 23/11/2013)

( 2 UNIT PLAY)

1) Detroit Pistons Vs New Jersey Nets ( Pick Game Totals UNDER 192 @ -110)

2) Chicago Bulls Vs LA Clippers ( Pick Game Totals UNDER 193.5 @ -110)

Cheers,

LC

**Laker_crazy** · 11-24-13, 01:08 PM

LAKER_CRAZY'S ONE PLAYER PROP FOR EARLY GAME TODAY

( 2 UNIT PLAY)

3) Brandon Jennings ( Detroit Pistons) ( Pick Total Points Scored OVER 16.5 @ -115 ) : Love this Prop,Jennings averages 30 PPG against the Nets in their six encounters and i believe he will get above 20 in this game,Good Luck

Cheers,

LC

**Laker_crazy** · 11-24-13, 04:13 PM

37 minutes played by jennings and still just 2 off 9 field goals..annoying !

**Laker_crazy** · 11-24-13, 05:06 PM

Might not have any more plays for the night or might play a few games,really tough few weeks!

**Laker_crazy** · 11-25-13, 01:45 PM

0-3 last night,horrible run continued last night,can't do much about cap the way i have been for all these years and hope for the best. Good Luck !

**Laker_crazy** · 11-25-13, 02:25 PM

Posting the card for tonight !

**Laker_crazy** · 11-25-13, 02:36 PM

LAKER_CRAZY'S NBA MAHA MONDAY PLAYS FOR TONIGHT ( 25/11/2013)

( 2 UNIT PLAYS UNLESS SPECIFIED)

1) Phoenix Suns Vs Miami Heat ( Pick Game Totals OVER 201 @ -110)

2) Minnesota Timberwolves Vs Indiana Pacers ( Pick Indiana Pacers Team Totals OVER 101 @ -115)

3) Boston Celtics Vs Charlotte Bobcats ( Pick Boston Celtics + 3.5 @ -105)

4) Houston Rockets Vs Memphis Grizzlies ( Pick Memphis Grizzlies MoneyLine @ +100)

5) Chicago Bulls Vs Utah Jazz ( Pick Utah Jazz + 4.5 @ -110)

6) Milwaukee Bucks Vs Detroit Pistons ( Pick Game Totals UNDER 191 @ -110) ( 1 UNIT PLAY)

7) Roy Hibbert ( Indiana Pacers) ( Pick Total Points SCORED OVER 12.5 @ -110)

Cheers & Good Luck

LC

**GreenAthens** · 11-25-13, 03:57 PM

Good luck LC!

**ShogunRua** · 11-25-13, 04:06 PM

good luck tonight.

**killersweet** · 11-25-13, 04:10 PM

Good luck tonight LC.

**Laker_crazy** · 11-25-13, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by GreenAthens

Good luck LC!

Need it,thanks mate,Good Luck to you too

**Laker_crazy** · 11-25-13, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by ShogunRua

good luck tonight.

Thanks Shogun,Good Luck to you too

**Laker_crazy** · 11-25-13, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by killersweet

Good luck tonight LC.

Thanks Brother,Good Luck to you too

**Laker_crazy** · 11-26-13, 11:58 AM

Seriously contemplating taking a break,this is ridiculous,Memphis blows a double digit lead giving up 40 in the 4th and I still do not know how the Over in the Suns heat game did not cash given they were on par with 1.20 left,no score thereafter,ridiculous !

**Laker_crazy** · 11-26-13, 11:58 AM

23rd November 0-3

24th November 2-5

**killersweet** · 11-26-13, 03:03 PM

Some tough beats LC. I think you r moving away from your earlier strategy and picking lots of games. May be going back to picking 1 or 2 games a night may help you bounce back quickly.

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 11-27-13, 09:27 AM

I know that totals is your thing. What do you think of denver/minni over 211.5? the more I think about it the more I like

**miss_sbets** · 11-27-13, 11:00 AM

Let me be your good luck charm.
I'm going to tail you tonight, but on one play only. If you had to pick one of your selections, make it a banker... which one would you choose?

Walk on through the rain...

**Laker_crazy** · 11-27-13, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by miss_sbets

Let me be your good luck charm.
I'm going to tail you tonight, but on one play only. If you had to pick one of your selections, make it a banker... which one would you choose?

Walk on through the rain...

How sweet is that

..I really appreciate your gesture,i will tell you the play i really love tonight but in a while as i am in the middle of a poker tournament right now..I am sure your good luck charm will work for me and for everyone else still having faith and tailing