The Man from oz Basketball # Picks Thread

[curious]

Here is a parlay that I really like
Chicago ML
Miami ML
Chicago / Charlotte OVER 184 1/2

Pays +261

[curious]

curios i lost a few unlucky games last week, last few seconds on the buzzer i lost like 2 parlays !! but thatz the nba ....

Your parlays are money line games right? Spreads will kill you.

[himeshforex]

95 % are money line games , just 5 % spreads and the 5 % are also only home dogs on the spread !!

[himeshforex]

curios im leaning on the under on that game but i never parlay totals in my plays , i suck at reading totals , a sure money spinner would be fading my totals plays , u ll become a millionaire fading 'em

[himeshforex]

todays PLAYS

CHICAGO BULLS ML (5 UNITS)
CHICAGO UNDER 185 (1 UNIT)

[curious]

95 % are money line games , just 5 % spreads and the 5 % are also only home dogs on the spread !!

Yes, I always take dogs on the spread. Sometimes I put x on the money line and 2x on the spread. I find that is pretty successful in college games, especially football if you pick your spots carefully.

Do you follow that site from kenpom? He gives the TRUE rating for each team, he calls that the pythag number. I found that if you figure out how to convert that number to a line and look for games where the line is way off and play only those games you will do very very well. A few years ago I got Maryland as a big dog when kenpom had them rated as a big fav. I was all over that game and it wasn't even close. Then the next game Maryland played the books had them as a dog again. I was like WTF? And was all over them again.

[curious]

todays PLAYS

CHICAGO BULLS ML (5 UNITS)
CHICAGO UNDER 185 (1 UNIT)

I'm going to do my little parlay just for fun.

Chicago ML
Miami ML
Chicago / Charlotte OVER 184 1/2

Pays +261

Risking 6 units to win 15.6 units

[kingofmonash]

wonderful day himesh , its business as usual at your counter , looting the books , keep it going !! points for ya !!

[himeshforex]

Yes, I always take dogs on the spread. Sometimes I put x on the money line and 2x on the spread. I find that is pretty successful in college games, especially football if you pick your spots carefully.

Do you follow that site from kenpom? He gives the TRUE rating for each team, he calls that the pythag number. I found that if you figure out how to convert that number to a line and look for games where the line is way off and play only those games you will do very very well. A few years ago I got Maryland as a big dog when kenpom had them rated as a big fav. I was all over that game and it wasn't even close. Then the next game Maryland played the books had them as a dog again. I was like WTF? And was all over them again.

this strategy does interest me , im not a follower of college games, im from australia actually , but would keep an eye for that kenpom guy !! best of luck with ur parlay !!

[kingofmonash]

Yes, I always take dogs on the spread. Sometimes I put x on the money line and 2x on the spread. I find that is pretty successful in college games, especially football if you pick your spots carefully. Do you follow that site from kenpom? He gives the TRUE rating for each team, he calls that the pythag number. I found that if you figure out how to convert that number to a line and look for games where the line is way off and play only those games you will do very very well. A few years ago I got Maryland as a big dog when kenpom had them rated as a big fav. I was all over that game and it wasn't even close. Then the next game Maryland played the books had them as a dog again. I was like WTF? And was all over them again.

hello curious , does he do rating for the nba as well ? thnx

[curious]

this strategy does interest me , im not a follower of college games, im from australia actually , but would keep an eye for that kenpom guy !! best of luck with ur parlay !!

http://kenpom.com/

The number you want is the Pyth number under the Strength of Schedule heading. I look at every game and compare these two numbers and then look at the spread. I am looking for games where the spread is off. If the spread is off that means that the money line is also off. I take dogs + the points for 2x and money line x, and I take favs on the money line only.

The lines makers have tightened up their lines vs the Pyth number from a few years ago. I'm not sure why.

I don't follow the players or the teams, I just look at the raw numbers. You also have to account for home court advantage. Some teams have it and some dont'. You also have to look at where the game is actually being played and if that is a home court or not. College basketball is weird. There are teams that are absolutely killer at home and can't do anything on the road.

[curious]

hello curious , does he do rating for the nba as well ? thnx

No, his rankings do not work on NBA. You have to use a different approach for NBA.

[himeshforex]

added play

FINAL CARD

CHICAGO BULLS ML (5 UNITS)
CHICAGO UNDER 185 (1 UNIT)
MIAMI ATLANTA OVER 189 (2 UNITS)

[himeshforex]

THNX FOR THE info curious , ive got a new toy to tinker with now , looks really impressive , this guy is a whiz kid , really fantastic compilation of pointss.

[kimbollmark]

Good luck, with you on Chicago ML

[kimbollmark]

Damn Chicago, damn Chicago, damn!!

[himeshforex]

really tough luck there ,

todays

orlando + clippers ml (12 units)
pheonix + boston + spurs ml (5 units)
lakers -2.5 (2 units)
new orlean hornets -3 (1 unit)

[kingofmonash]

tonites going to be fireworks for us !! bol

[curious]

Dang man, you are going to lose big time today, I am on all of these plays.

[curious]

Why is it that the crackheads do not give you a hard time about playing money lines? That is all I ever hear.

Thought you might be interested. My record this year, and these are mostly money lines, a few parlays if the lines were too large and I combined a few of them to mitigate risk. A few NCAAB parlays on days when the NBA list of games is pretty thin in order to mitigate risk.

When I do a parlay I count each play separately. If I double up on a play I only count it once. If I play a + spread and a money line on the same team, I count it as one play and I figure it a win if it won money and a loss if it lost money.

My record YTD is 179-76 +159.98 units win/loss ratio is 70.9%.

This does not count halves and quarters or totals. I steal the totals from laker_crazy anyway, I can't cap totals.

[himeshforex]

hahaha well done curios , looks like we are on the same boat in totals

yesterday was just brutal to both of us man , miami on OT ,and un frickin believable Bulls last 8 seconds !!

i like ur style , money lines in parlays is the way to go , a small amt of selective chasing will recover lost units ,

[curious]

hahaha well done curios , looks like we are on the same boat in totals

yesterday was just brutal to both of us man , miami on OT ,and un frickin believable Bulls last 8 seconds !!

i like ur style , money lines in parlays is the way to go , a small amt of selective chasing will recover lost units ,

There is a poster that I really like, he used to run a thread, nothing but parlays of large favs, mostly NCAAB, sometimes NBA too. This dude was awesome. Every day he would hit 2 or 3 of these parlays. Usually you had to lay a little bit, sometimes you were + a little.

This is why I started looking at only playing money lines and learning how to cap big favs.

I'll look his name up and post it when I have time. Awesome dude, complete gentleman and absolutely knew what he was talking about.

[ufcmma36]

I think your talking of Kragen? great dude! loves the parlays

[curious]

I think your talking of Kragen? great dude! loves the parlays

I looked him up, WestsidePete, number 1 guy in both his ability to cap games and his being a gentleman.

I wish I could deal with idiots the way Pete did, he just ignored them, I handle them slightly differently. LOL

[himeshforex]

last 7
CHICAGO BULLS ML (5 UNITS) - loss
CHICAGO UNDER 185 (1 UNIT) - win
MIAMI ATLANTA OVER 189 (2 UNITS) - loss
orlando + clippers ml (12 units) - WIN
pheonix + boston + spurs ml (5 units) - WIN
lakers -2.5 (2 units) - loss
new orlean hornets -3 (1 unit) - loss

3-4
-3 units

ytd
125-86
+86 units

[himeshforex]

todays

DALLAS / BULLS OVER 183 (3 units)
philadelphia / charlotte under 187 (1 unit)

[kingofmonash]

nice to see u play only totals today !! lets cash in

[himeshforex]

thnx king ,, hows ur season turinin out so far , really big thnaks to curious for his knowledgable inputs , there s a lot to learn from him ,,

[kimbollmark]

Sorry, but I don' like Over/Under; good luck

[jolmscheid]

I see himesh is up over $8k...nice

[kimbollmark]

Sorry, but I don' like Over/Under; good luck

Unortunately I was right, sorry

[himeshforex]

well kimboll . dont be sorry my friend , i told ya all earlier , fade my totals ull become millionaires , but dont ever fade my parlays , thats a ticket to the poorhouse !! lol

yesterday
0-2
-4.4 units

[himeshforex]

todays

detriot pistons ml (3 units)
orlando + spurs ml (10 units)
boston + spurs ml (2 units)
sacremento / golden state under 216 (6 units)

[kingofmonash]

yippie

parlays

lets bang it on

[jolmscheid]

Keep addin' to your total Himesh!