Paul's hoops thread

[lakerboy]

Hey paul you were one of the guys making fun of line movement in baseball and then you when you saw i cleaned up on it and the rest of the tools in the baseball section stopped betting cause sep bases was too hard you were in my thread learning alot but now as the public cashes in the nba ( like they do every year at this point) you are laughing at line movement. you do realize that the books always win in the end and you are simply playing with there money before giving it back and many more times by the end of the year.

[Pauulzcappin]

It was a backdoor cover LB. Houston started fouling people like 7 points behind with 13 seconds left or some shit.

I beat the closer by 4 points and that's why I won, if someone bet it before tip off on the over they woulda lost.

I'm not making public bets if you want to track it back im mixing between favs and dogs actually, that's what I learned from you along with the lessons on line move. They are good at some periods but bad at others, like square and public bets.

But if you mix everything and consider it all in your bets (handicapping and line movement), you win long term, that's what I learned.

For example you have a play that you are not really sure about and you see RLM against you, then you lay off.

If you are very sure about a play that you looked at all angles but you have a bit of line movement against you, you stick with your original lean, because your confidence in your plays is better than the perception of sharps all around.

That's all, reply back when you read this.

[BranGor]

Hey paul you were one of the guys making fun of line movement in baseball and then you when you saw i cleaned up on it and the rest of the tools in the baseball section stopped betting cause sep bases was too hard you were in my thread learning alot but now as the public cashes in the nba ( like they do every year at this point) you are laughing at line movement. you do realize that the books always win in the end and you are simply playing with there money before giving it back and many more times by the end of the year.

For someone who lost 10 units in one day you sure talk a lot.

[hawley]

For someone who lost 10 units in one day you sure talk a lot.

you realise how many units this guy makes?

[Pauulzcappin]

For someone who lost 10 units in one day you sure talk a lot.

LB wins on the long run don't let a bad day fool you.

[Pauulzcappin]

Anyways, no idea what to play today, probably something in-game or something closer to gametime, still looking

[Pauulzcappin]

Already booked Lakers/Raptors over 211.5 -114 for 150, gonna post it as an official play late tonight

[ROFLcopter]

Good luck Paul, I like that play. You on anything for tonight?

[Pauulzcappin]

Good luck Paul, I like that play. You on anything for tonight?

Gonna check late money tonight or make a 2nd half play on the first game, I think this line is too sharp

[Pauulzcappin]

38- Knicks +6.5 -115 1.5u

[ROFLcopter]

On the Knicks also, lets get em

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

38- Knicks +6.5 -115 1.5u

Good luck man I'll tail.

[Pauulzcappin]

On the Knicks also, lets get em

Pinny was offering Bulls at + money

I feel good about this play.

[Pauulzcappin]

Let's get it D3, I overslept NFL games next week looks like you made a killing since I didn't tail this time

I tend to mush good cappers bets when I do

[Pauulzcappin]

LIVE

Bulls +3 +105 1u

Trying for a middle here, already got screwed once by a Bulls comeback will be prepared this time.

[ROFLcopter]

Wow I wish I had the balls to put some on Knicks ML. It didn't even cross my mind

[Pauulzcappin]

Wow I wish I had the balls to put some on Knicks ML. It didn't even cross my mind

Bulls ML was just +157 on pinny. woulda been a nice hedge

[ROFLcopter]

Pretty comfortable with where I am right now bro haha

[Pauulzcappin]

Looks like I made my move too soon, they are now +8 +116

[Pauulzcappin]

39- Portland/OKC 1stQ over 49.5 -109 .5u

[Pauulzcappin]

Cashed. Too bad I decided to hedge some of that Knicks bet

[hawley]

39- Portland/OKC 1stQ over 49.5 -109 .5u

nice call

im on the over for the game so hope the score keeps ticking

[Goat Milk]

nice on the 1q. i think with the live bet you just thought that was great value but remember this is the nba where a 20 pt lead is nothing and if you make live bets just remember to have a strategy going into it (always know who exactly is on the floor. always.) and you will do great.

live bets are my speciality but i am limiting those this year and you know why

[Pauulzcappin]

nice call im on the over for the game so hope the score keeps ticking

ty hawley good luck

nice on the 1q. i think with the live bet you just thought that was great value but remember this is the nba where a 20 pt lead is nothing and if you make live bets just remember to have a strategy going into it (always know who exactly is on the floor. always.) and you will do great. live bets are my speciality but i am limiting those this year and you know why

Yeah, that's what Im trying to improve this year. I made that bet because the other day I was screwed by the pistons blowing a 20 pt-lead when I had them for the game. that's my point i try to middle shit when for example a team is shooting 60% but playing poor defense. that was the case today but the knicks just continued to rain 3s the whole game.

this is my first full season capping nba so i still need to adapt.

[Goat Milk]

lol pistons

we were up like 20 i had pistons +10 and I pushed!! And i know you had pistons ml that game was unreal rose completley shit on us in the last quarter

[Pauulzcappin]

lol pistons we were up like 20 i had pistons +10 and I pushed!! And i know you had pistons ml that game was unreal rose completley shit on us in the last quarter

I don't usually get pissed on bad beats with small bets but wow. That day seemed like everything went wrong for me

He tried to do the same against Knicks today but their offense was raining 3s all night, otherwise he might have been able to do it again

[Wilforth]

Hey paul you were one of the guys making fun of line movement in baseball and then you when you saw i cleaned up on it and the rest of the tools in the baseball section stopped betting cause sep bases was too hard you were in my thread learning alot but now as the public cashes in the nba ( like they do every year at this point) you are laughing at line movement. you do realize that the books always win in the end and you are simply playing with there money before giving it back and many more times by the end of the year.

The books are just giving out "loans" for now. Those "loans" will be paid back with huge interests!

[Pauulzcappin]

You are right wil, by all star break i'll be down at least 2 grand.

[Wilforth]

You are right wil, by all star break i'll be down at least 2 grand.

No one is saying you in particular will be down. But the truth is that the public won't go on winning. Take the Lakers/Kings game for instance. The Lakers covered the spread but playing the Lakers to cover the spread as road favorites will put one in the hole in the long run.

[mlb]

38- Knicks +6.5 -115 1.5u

good stuff.. ended up playing it

[Pauulzcappin]

good stuff.. ended up playing it

[Pauulzcappin]

40- Lakers/Raptors over 211.5 -114 1.5u

I grabbed it earlier it's already down to -108 juice at 212.5. Get it now if you like this.

[Pauulzcappin]

I like Hornets and a few others tomorrow. Gonna start looking up after Portland's game

[hawley]

40- Lakers/Raptors over 211.5 -114 1.5u

I grabbed it earlier it's already down to -108 juice at 212.5. Get it now if you like this.

nice, locked it in at 211 as soon as i saw the line

[Pauulzcappin]

nice, locked it in at 211 as soon as i saw the line

nice, they had it moved to 211.5... just took what they offered, dont like to buy points