take it...or leave it

[TakeIt]

12/26/10

min -110 o208.5 tot (1x)
det -110 1.5 1stq (1x)
den -110 -1.5 1stq (1x)

[TakeIt]

12/26/10

ind -110 -2.5 1st1/2 (1x)
den -110 -2 1st1/2 (1x)
den -110 -3.5 side (1x)

[TakeIt]

12/26/10

min -110 o208.5 tot (1x) l
det -110 1.5 1stq (1x) l
den -110 -1.5 1stq (1x) w
ind -110 -2.5 1st1/2 (1x) l
den -110 -2 1st1/2 (1x) w
den -110 -3.5 side (1x) l

2-4, -2.4u

[TakeIt]

12/27/10

min -110 1 1stq (1x)
hou -110 -3 1stq (1x)

[TakeIt]

12/27/10

det -110 u193.5 tot (1x)

[TakeIt]

12/27/10

min -110 1 1stq (1x) l
hou -110 -3 1stq (1x) l
det -110 u193.5 tot (1x) l

0-3, -3.3u

[JR007]

not to good.... should have put your record in quotations..just like your gettesburg address

[TakeIt]

not to good.... should have put your record in quotations..just like your gettesburg address

at least i keep a record. where's your record, by the way? i can also spell Gettysburg.

and i see you're a nazi sympathizer. you're probably an anti-Semite and a bigot as well.

does white pride ring a bell?

enough said, back on ignore.

[JR007]

No need to be angry......thanks for the spelling lesson....look me up if you need to know anything else....keep posting

[JR007]

Mis....sis......sippi......

[TakeIt]

1/1/11

cf wis -110 3 side (15x)

[TakeIt]

1/1/11

cf wis -110 3 side (15x) w

1-0, +15u

cf 6 - 5 - 2 , 56% + 9.49 u

[curious]

at least i keep a record. where's your record, by the way? i can also spell Gettysburg.

and i see you're a nazi sympathizer. you're probably an anti-Semite and a bigot as well.

does white pride ring a bell?

enough said, back on ignore.

Is there something wrong with being a Nazi, anti-Semite, and bigot?

[TakeIt]

1/2/11

nfl kc -105 -3.5 side (1.57x)

[TakeIt]

1/2/11

nfl chi -110 u43.5 tot (1x)

[TakeIt]

1/2/11

nba lake -525 0 ml (2x)

[TakeIt]

1/2/11

nfl kc -105 -3.5 side (1.57x) l
nfl chi -110 u43.5 tot (1x) w
nba lake -525 0 ml (2x) l

1-2, -11.15u

[TakeIt]

nba lake -525 0 ml (2x) l

obviously, this laker play was a bad bet, but unfortunately i didn't realize it until after i hit the send button. nevermind that the lakers didn't even give a shit about playing basketball tonight.

i really liked the knicks money line when i saw it (-260), because i gave the knicks about a 75%~ chance of winning that game. -260 equates to about 72.2%. a small edge but at least an edge, but i woke up too late to bet it, and my current book (bet-jamica) never does overnight money lines.

with the lakers, on the other hand, i didn't even bother to do the math until i made the bet. at -525 they needed an 84% chance of success, and I didn't give them that. I gave them 70-80 at best, but 84 i knew was horrible. are the lakers really going to win this game 84 times out of 100? even if they are playing their best it seems doubtful.

conversely, this means the grizzlies only need an 18.8% chance to win (taking 4.31), so if you think they have a 20-25% chance of success you gain long term by taking the price. and if you waited closer to game time you could have got 5.09. granted, you have to be somewhat astute at assigning percentages, but with practice you can get reasonably close.

at this point i can't really buy out, unless i want to take +430, so i rode it out. at the half i knew i was toast.

I went to the south point casino, and they had the lakers -660 +425, so i knew i at least got the best of the line i did bet. (sometimes these vegas books are just shit.)

moral: i thought the lakers might actually try tonight, which is all that was required to win outright. nevertheless, laying these huge money line prices is fraught with danger. do the math first and don't lay those huge prices unless all the stars are aligned. i haven't laid a price that big in 20 years--i just don't do it--until tonight.

[JR007]

no value in taking a moneyline that high...ever

[curious]

no value in taking a moneyline that high...ever

Yeah Mr. line vs spread expert. I love these idiots who say stupid things like this but don't know what they are talking about.

Money lines have value, if you know what you are doing you can calculate the actual value.

[JR007]

-660 to win 100...out of your mind...100 to make 425..............theres the value...idiot....41 years experience...long before the internet tool

[TakeIt]

closer
w l p tot % units days
18 16 0 34 53% 0.4 3

opener
w l p tot % units days
20 14 0 34 59% 4.6 3

explanation of data:

using pinnacle lines, i'm tracking the opener vs the closer for every game for nba spreads and totals. reading across--the first group is the closing lines vs the opening lines. 18 wins, 16 losses, 0 pushes, 34 total plays, 53%, +0.4 units over 3 days. the second group reads the same way.

example: for the first group, if the total opened at 190 and closed at 195, then the play would be the under. since you're betting into the closing line you'd take under 195. comparing 195 with 190 you take the best line; in this case under 195.

same reasoning for the next group--opening lines. in this case you would take over 190, since you're betting into the opening line. comparing 190 with 195 you'd take the best line, which is over 190.

in the case of betting the openers it is assumed you have perfect knowledge and that you know the line will move and which way the line will move. in the case of the closers you don't need perfect knowledge. you just compare the lines as close to game time as possible and make the play. (but for this data, i'm using the closing lines.)

any move of 1/2 point or more is recorded. only opening and closing lines are compared. any moves up or down inbetweeen are ignored. if there is no move from opening to close, then no play.

[TakeIt]

[corrected for errors]

closer
w l p tot % units days
17 18 0 35 49% -2.8 3

opener
w l p tot % units days
19 15 1 35 56% 2.5 3

[TakeIt]

[two more days added]

closer
w l p tot % units days
27 31 1 59 47% -7.1 5

opener
w l p tot % units days
33 24 2 59 58% 6.6 5

[TakeIt]

[4 more days added]

closer
w l p tot % units days
53 52 1 106 50% -4.2 9

opener
w l p tot % units days
54 48 4 106 53% 1.2 9

[TakeIt]

[5 more days added--dec 23 through jan 6, inclusive]

closer
w l p tot % units days
74 87 3 164 46% -21.7 14

opener
w l p tot % units days
90 68 6 164 57% 15.2 14

[TakeIt]

[3 more days added: dec 20th--jan 6]

closer
w l p tot % units days
93 112 3 208 45% -30.2 17

opener
w l p tot % units days
115 87 6 208 57% 19.3 17

[TakeIt]

[dec 10--jan 7]

closer
w l p tot % units days
13 6 0 19 68% 6.4 today

opener
w l p tot % units days
6 13 0 19 32% -8.3 today


closer
w l p tot % units days
161 183 5 349 47% -40.3 28

opener
w l p tot % units days
190 150 9 349 56% 25 28

[TakeIt]

[dec 3--jan 8]

closer
w l p tot % units days
7 5 0 12 58% 1.5 today

opener
w l p tot % units days
5 7 0 12 42% -2.7 today


closer
w l p tot % units days
210 241 5 456 47% -55.1 36

opener
w l p tot % units days
252 195 9 456 56% +37.5 36

[TakeIt]

1/7/11

closer
w l p tot % units days
13 6 0 19 68% 6.4 today

opener
w l p tot % units days
6 13 0 19 32% -8.3 today

[correction for 1/7/11]

closer
w l p tot % units days
14 5 0 19 74% 8.5 today

opener
w l p tot % units days
5 14 0 19 26% -10.4 today

[TakeIt]

1/9/11

closer
w l p tot % units days
10 3 0 13 77% 6.7 today

opener
w l p tot % units days
4 9 0 13 31% -5.9 today


closer
w l p tot % units days
220 244 5 469 47% -48.4 37

opener
w l p tot % units days
256 204 9 469 56% +31.6 37

[JR007]

great thread...you are the only one in it

[TakeIt]

closer
w l p tot % units Date
2 3 0 5 40% -1.3 1/10/11

opener
w l p tot % units Day
3 2 0 5 60% 0.8 Monday


[nov 26 to date]

closer
w l p tot % units days
262 291 6 559 47% -58.1 45

opener
w l p tot % units days
303 244 12 559 55% +34.6 45

[TakeIt]

closer
w l p tot % units Date
6 3 0 9 67% 2.7 1/11/11

opener
w l p tot % units Day
3 6 0 9 33% -3.6 Tuesday


last 5 days
closer 22-7 76% + 14.3u
opener 8-21 28% -15.1u


[nov 17 to date]

closer
w l p tot % units days
316 351 6 673 47% -70.1 55

opener
w l p tot % units days
363 295 15 673 55% +38.5 55

[TakeIt]

closer
w l p tot % units Date
10 7 0 17 59% 2.3 1/12/11

opener
w l p tot % units Day
9 8 0 17 53% 0.2 Wednesday


closer
w l p tot % units days
326 358 6 690 48% -67.8 56

opener
w l p tot % units days
372 303 15 690 55% +38.7 56