100

[Data]

Phi -2 -120 $5

The line just moved on me, I had to buy a half point.


parlay +1183 $5
Phi ml 1Q -120
Atl +.5 2Q -110
Phi -.5 3Q -110
Atl +.5 4Q -110

[Data]

parlay +260 $5
Cha +1.5 2Q -110
Tor -1.5 3Q -110

parlay +260 $7
Mem -2.5 2Q -110
Por +1.5 4Q -110

[Data]

parlay +162 $5
Mem ml 1H -270
Por +1.5 4Q -110

parlay +260 $8
Chi +1 1Q -110
Dal -1 3Q -110

[Data]

Dal ml -155 $10

[Data]

parlay +260 5$
Cha pk 3Q -110
Cha -2 4Q -110

parlay +260 5$
ATl +1 3Q -110
Phi -.5 4Q -110

[Data]

What do you guys think about these parlay galore? I do think these are correlated but recent beatings put me in discussion mood.

[Data]

66.39
-9.2
-15
18.2
8.1
-8
6.45
-10
_____
56.94

[Data]

NJ ml +145 $20
Min ml +270 $5.69

I assume LeBron is going to be out today. Since the public is on NJ I am taking NJ now.

However, public is also all over LAL and I was thinking should not I wait to take Min? What I noticed is that if I wait for a good line to get better due to public betting it frequently gets only worse. So, I am taking Min now, while I like the line so much.

[Ganchrow]

What do you guys think about these parlay galore? I do think these are correlated but recent beatings put me in discussion mood.

I think the pertinent question would be what evidence do you have that would lead you to believe these quarter bets are sufficiently correlated so as to be profitable? If you don't have direct evidence (or even if you do) what's your rationale for why you believe they should be correlated to the point of profitability?

[Data]

what's your rationale for why you believe they should be correlated to the point of profitability?

I think that if the correlation was too small to be unprofitable then it would be hardly noticeable. When I look at the past results and consistently see splits where the results are more than 3 standard deviations from the mean, I am a believer.

[Data]

NJ ml +145 $20

The line moved and I can now take Cle at -110.

Ganchrow, do you have a calculator to determine how much to buy back Kelly-wise?

[Data]

The line moved and I can now take Cle at -110.

Ganchrow, do you have a calculator to determine how much to buy back Kelly-wise?

Found it:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/26617-overbets-line-changes-kelly-spreadsheet.html

Cle ml +120 $14

[bigboydan]

I hope that tool is as useful for you as it is for me.

BTW, I too took my chances with the [iSBRFORUM]Cavs[/iSBRFORUM] tonight sir.

BOL with your slate tonight

[Data]

I hope that tool is as useful for you as it is for me.

BTW, I too took my chances with the [iSBRFORUM]Cavs[/iSBRFORUM] tonight sir.

BOL with your slate tonight

Thank you, sir. Best of luck to you too.

[Data]

Atl pk 4Q -110 $5
Ind +2 2H -105 $5

[Data]

LAL -.5 3q -110 $8.80

[Data]

Sac +3 -120 $12

parlay +250 $5
Sac +1 2Q -120
Uta -.5 4Q -110

[Data]

parlay +1209 $5

LAC ml 1Q -115
Mil +.5 2Q -110
LAC -.5 3Q -110
Mil pk 4Q -110

[Data]

Sac pk 4Q -110 $5.50

[Data]

parlay +260 $5
Mil -.5 3Q -110
LAC +1.5 4Q -110

[Data]

56.94
29
-5.69
-14
4.55
4.76
8
10
-10
5
-5
_____
83.56

[Data]

parlay +573 $5
Bos -3 1Q -115
Phi +3 3Q -110
Phi +2 4Q -110

Tor ml +250 $5

parlay +260 $5
Pho -2 1Q -110
Tor +1.5 4Q -110

[Data]

Phi +2 4Q -110 $5

[Data]

parlay +260 $5
Cle +3 2Q -110
Was -3 3Q -110

parlay +410 $5
NY ml 1H +167
NJ -1 4Q -110

[Data]

parlay +600 $5
Was -3.5 1Q -110
Cle +3 2Q -110
Was -3 3Q -110

[Data]

parlay +273 $5
Was -6 1H -110
Was -2 4Q -110

[Data]

Det ml +100 $5

[Data]

Tor +2 -105 2H $5

[Data]

parlay +260 $5
Mem +6 1H -110
Hou -2 4Q -110

[Data]

parlay +260 $5
NJ -3 3Q -110
NY +2 4Q -110

[Data]

Dal +1 -110 4Q 5$

parlay +273 $5
Hou -2.5 3Q -105
Mem +0.5 4Q -110

[Data]

Den -7 -110 2H $5

[Data]

Mil +1.5 3Q -110 $10

[Data]

LAC pk 3Q -110 $10

[Data]

83.56
-10
13
-10
8.35
-5
4.54
5
-15
4.54
-10
9.09
-10
_____
68.08