Celtics ML down from +340 to +305

[Wilforth]

The spread has held constant at 7.5 points but Celtics ML is down from +340 to +305. Could that be a clue on the game's final outcome?

[Mikail]

Or could it be a trap?

[cruyff]

It could be +305 or +9905, it's still not gonna hit. I'm considering hitting Cavs ML hard

[lyon804]

Value bettors are taking it down..

I am going to say something that don't register with many here....... The Cavs will most likely win tonite but at -400 they have to win 80% of the time to break even on your money.. Boston at +305 only have to win 24% of the time to break even on your money.. In this same exact scenario do you think the Cavs will win it 80% of the time and Boston lose it 76% of the time?? I see enough to note that it is statistically improbable for Cleveland to win this same exact matchup this often... In the gambling world we know of this Cleveland bet -400 to be called an overlay.

[No coincidences]

Celts are the No. 1 public bet at Sportsbook.

I think the real question is why isn't the line dropping?

As for the ML, I wouldn't take the Cavs there. It has no value. IMHO, the play is either Cavs -7.5 or Boston ML, if you're gutsy enough.

[Grosshhit]

yup your write lyon, both teams have split the first 4 games, yet they have Cavs as big faves on the ML tonight. Im pretty sure Cavs take this game, but getting that price for the Boston ML has great value.

[SargeantHooker]

Very wise & informative post sir. I hope people pay attention & learn something.

[suicidekings]

Celts are the No. 1 public bet at Sportsbook.

I think the real question is why isn't the line dropping?

As for the ML, I wouldn't take the Cavs there. It has no value. IMHO, the play is either Cavs -7.5 or Boston ML, if you're gutsy enough.

Those numbers are returning the total number of bets on a particular side, but tell you nothing about the disparity between bets on the Cavs and bets on the Celts. With only one NBA game today, there's naturally going to be a ton of volume on that game (currently ~18,500 on the game), so seeing BOS & CLE spreads sitting at #1 and #3 isn't surprising at all.

It's not dropping because the betting is fairly balanced at 54%/46%. It's a sharp spread.

[DOPEMAN]

Boston ML is headed down because:
-Cavs dont cover...vegas collects
-Cavs dont win SU...vegas collects
-Celtics cover...vegas cuts loses at -110
-Celtics win SU...so theyre taking value out of the most profitable bet

[Flight]

Wilforth,

+340 to +305 is only about a 2% swing in probability.

Line seems accurate. Maybe -7 -115 at tip off.

[Sunde91]

As low as 280 now and keeps going down, wow.

What were the MLs for the first two games in Clev?