The Limper is a number-based projection model utilizing past-performance team and player data as well as current match-up variables. The algorithm used is based on an old marketing model I hawked around decades ago, and it took some doing, but I got it fit for basketball projections almost 20 years ago. The only subjective aspect of the model are the selection of variables used and how they’re weighted, but I don’t think any of those selections would be controversial. Although I update the injury module of the program every day before posting, very often decisions to play or sit are made right at tip-off, which can easily alter outcomes. Also, remember the Limper is a projection model, not a prediction machine, and is only best utilized as a guide - so bettor beware.
The “GB” column reflects the number of games behind teams 2-8 are from the next higher seed (in white), while for teams 9-13 the column shows the number of games they are behind the number 8 seed (in yellow). There a couple of ways to do that, and I probably picked wrong, but – hell – I don’t get paid enough to be perfect. That said, if I did screw up something or you have suggestions, my door is always open. I’ll update the standings next week. Finally, as these last “regular season” or “seeding” games only last a couple weeks, I’ll simply be including them in the model’s “Season Record”; and remember that the “Projected ATS winner” is based on the line that is current at the time of posting; and, although the projected straight-up winner and margin of victory (MOV) will NOT change, if the line changes, up or down, it MAY alter the “Final ATS Pick”, and the model’s ATS win/loss record. It’s the best way I know for grading the model’s reliability.
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The Limper - NBA 2019-20 – 7/30/20 thru 8/5/20
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