Notice to NBA noobs who tail

**shoebox** · 04-08-10, 03:11 AM

Good stuff lb

**kobefanatic** · 04-08-10, 03:12 AM

wow you're still awake

**shari91** · 04-08-10, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

First off learn how to make your own picks. Tail folks only in the beginning and while you are doing that look at there picks and see what they are doing. Also dont tail guys who have 50 -200 picks, thats an irrelevant size sample. Anyone can hit 55-65% over that size sample. I know some might come here and argue with me but its important for me to point this out cause i know many here are young and think just because a guys hot he will hit 60% long term- it wont happen. Lots of young folks here on this forum and they have no mm skills and no experience on NBA betting and think they can hit 60% on over 500 plays. It all evens out. The key in this game is long term success. Im telling you kids right now that NO ONE will hit 60 % over 500 plays. If you dont believe me thats fine cause im not here to argue with every Tom , Dick and Harry, Good Luck and remember learn the game and manage your money.

Hell YEAH LB!!

Can I just add that there's no need to bet on EVERYTHING that day to try to make your money back should you have a rough one? There's always tomorrow and some of the worst plays we make are when we're chasing.

Also, you don't know the size of the bankroll of those you tail... REMEMBER: a 10x play for them is most likely not an all-in play. The best cappers don't always hit so find your safe unit amount (usually where you can have 20x worth of bets and still eat) and bet accordingly.

BOL everyone (from one who doesn't know much but knows a little) and let's go rob those books!!

**anjaru** · 04-08-10, 04:14 AM

Well said. My two cents on betting for newbies is this: instead of analyzing which team is better or trying to visualize the outcome of the game, think about which team the books want you to bet on, and then bet the OPPOSITE.

Example: Spurs +6.5 vs. Suns

How can this be? Spurs are an excellent team and will at least cover in a tight game, yes? NO. If it looks too good to be true, it's too good to be true.

**ed_lupeet** · 04-08-10, 04:29 AM

Good point LB. It's hard to maintain a 60% ratio on playing long term. Money management is also an important thing in betting.

**SaffaCappa** · 04-08-10, 05:03 AM

Good stuff LB!
Best way to play is to have your own leans and if someone here is also on, then make the play! (Esp. if its LB, Paco, Houlli etc.)
Thats what I have been doing and my books are loving me less every day for it

**doctor_on_call** · 04-08-10, 05:20 AM

thanks for the reminder LB.

**excel** · 04-08-10, 05:40 AM

Thanks for this, myself being a complete noob to sports betting(around 3 bets ever) just watching you guys talk about betting has drawn me in. I've tailed a couple people(you being one of them) and it all seems pretty much random.
Thankfully all the money I've wagered has been given to me by this sportsbook. I just received a 200 freeplay 4x rollover any suggestions on the most effective way to turn it around? Please keep in mind three weeks ago I didn't know what a spread was and never ever watched sports.

**Goat Milk** · 04-08-10, 05:53 AM

bro i've said somethin about this before. i don't care, but it's kinda weird when I see people who seem to know nothing about ball just following your picks. They're like mice waiting for cheese when they wait for you to post your picks, and right away, they hop on. I swear even if you posted the most absurd picks, they would follow.

fck man i can't sleep

**cdhfootball** · 04-08-10, 06:38 AM

only tail LB thats what ive learned

**sweetjones55** · 04-08-10, 08:18 AM

I guess everybody should stay away from my picks then lol

. I am that guy that has hit 60% in a bit over 200 plays (240).

**fly fisher** · 04-08-10, 09:46 AM

I have been doing this for about 3 months and consider myself very much a noob. (Bet there are no arguments there) I have picked up some from all of you expereinced guys. Understand one thing from a noob point of view. I try to look at what info is out there both on this site and looking at games, then I make my leans and somtimes my picks. Then I come back on the site and see that maybe you experienced guys have picked different or you top cappers have both sides (Paco and LB), then it makes a new guy like me say, "what are they seeing that I don't see", so I ask the dumb question, "Do either of you guys see something that would make you reverse your bet?" Then I get a vague answer sometimes, cuz I know I am a pain in the ass for asking, but I don't know. Then some wise ass gets on LB's thread and says, "Make your own picks!" I did, I had liked phoenix all day, I don't have much capping skills, but just looking at everything, phoenix looked like the right pick and I was on it. I had called in my wager early in the day. Then I see Paco and LB on opposite sides, and both have been hot, so I wondered, "What do those guys see with all their experience that I won't see?"

So I bet against my initial pick to just lose juice, ridicule me if you want to, but that is what noobs do, cuz they don't have the confidence to know what to do.

Just like shoebox yesterday, I looked at his thread, and he had the 4th quarter Washington +2.5 against Orlando. I went back and did my own research looking back at games, and I thought yea, that looks like a great pick, well we both lost. But it looked like a great pick, so I tailed, but it wasn't blindly. I also know that Shoe knows a lot of shit just like the rest of you, so ya that influences my final pick. Then win or lose it is between me and the guy that pays me or I pay him.

Cheers to all of you.

**tealish** · 04-08-10, 11:19 AM

you're wrong LB. Donaughy can hit at over 60% just fine.

**kboiler** · 04-08-10, 11:33 AM

So do you only post your picks because you want to be proven right? Why post them if you don't want to be tailed.

**DaAce** · 04-08-10, 11:47 AM

He's doing the people a favor by posting his plays. Its like a teacher who posts the answers to your questions. Yea the play is easy to tail but down the road youre not going to learn any essential guide or lesson from copying. I personally try to understand line movements, logical instincts and trends. I've tailed LB and Paco but have also compared and contrasted their plays with mine to notice subtle reasonings as to the differences I havent seen due to my lack of experience.

**Aurelius** · 04-08-10, 11:53 AM

well said LB... should add "don't bite the hand that feeds you"

**rochestertitans** · 04-08-10, 11:54 AM

I hitt 66 percent over my first 500 plays... All posted.. Now though I am down to 61 percent

**lakerboy** · 04-08-10, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by rochestertitans

I hitt 66 percent over my first 500 plays... All posted.. Now though I am down to 61 percent

but you dont bet for real money- you wouldnt have played all those for real money

**Tommy_de1st** · 04-08-10, 11:56 AM

Well said and noticed LB and Shari91.
Records should be kept and shown as a yield. Yield says about the income return of the investment

**MexicanStallion** · 04-08-10, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by rochestertitans

I hitt 66 percent over my first 500 plays... All posted.. Now though I am down to 61 percent

All you do is pick games though. You post lines from anywhere and post some well after they are moving. It is a different scenario when you have your own money down on all these games. You do a nice job picking overall though.

**rochestertitans** · 04-08-10, 11:58 AM

LB it doesnt matter If I bet or not I still picked winners at that rate..

**rochestertitans** · 04-08-10, 11:59 AM

it shouldnt matter IF i would play them for real money the fact of the matter is I picked them, the lines I post to, are available at the time I post them.

**HoulihansTX** · 04-08-10, 12:00 PM

Amen

**shoebox** · 04-08-10, 12:02 PM

If you keep picking at that rate you will start to recieve offers from the books.

**kingsr** · 04-08-10, 12:03 PM

I hit 70% over 499 plays does that count?

**shari91** · 04-08-10, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by rochestertitans

it shouldnt matter IF i would play them for real money the fact of the matter is I picked them, the lines I post to, are available at the time I post them.

In my little opinion, there's a HUGE difference. I can 'pick' games across 7 sports a day. Pick enough games and unless I'm an absolute fukkknuckle, then I'll hit. All for free.

Bring my money into it? Doesn't matter if my units ar $5 or $500. If you believe in something, get it.

**tealish** · 04-08-10, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by rochestertitans

I hitt 66 percent over my first 500 plays... All posted.. Now though I am down to 61 percent

Originally posted by lakerboy

but you dont bet for real money- you wouldnt have played all those for real money

It's definitely less impressive if the picks aren't real plays with money on the line because a lot of plays you know you should make, you're leaning that way, but then you go "damn, i can't put a bill on the clippers b2b" and it turns out legit. It's a different dynamic for real or just picks.
Still, 66% through 500 --money or not-- is pretty damn impressive.

**lakerboy** · 04-08-10, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by rochestertitans

it shouldnt matter IF i would play them for real money the fact of the matter is I picked them, the lines I post to, are available at the time I post them.

of course it matters if you play for real money- the fact that you arent playing for real money is important to note. how many times has one looked at a game and said to themselves i think that team is going to win but didnt play it and after said i should have played it. the mind thinks differently when they are playing for real money- i can go and put in the kings ml tonight on SBR points for 2000 points but no fukkin no way am i betting that for real money. yes i picked them but its different with real money.

good job picking and keep it up. im not gonna argue much cause i havent seen anyone here who has posted plays that bets "real money" go 60% on 500 or more plays. 500 is the common sample size used.

**Tommy_de1st** · 04-08-10, 01:00 PM

Guys who hit 60-70% just tell us your yield
Mine is about 7%

**rochestertitans** · 04-08-10, 04:49 PM

but yea, i do only bet with points and I do lack management skills on them lol, which is why i am at 0 right now lol!! and itchin to get in on some action tonight!. If I could manage a little better id be golden

**rochestertitans** · 04-08-10, 04:50 PM

for xample i just lost all 550 on the cards over today

**alub15** · 04-08-10, 06:00 PM

woot woot

**thechaoz** · 04-08-10, 06:22 PM

LB you or someone should do a newbs guide to betting/capping on your own. The lack of stickies/articles like that on this site is the only thing I don't like. I have already begin to done this but with a little guidance in the right direction it's much easier for new bettors to get going on their own. I say this because do you look at stats, matchups, history, your own personal database, ATS of both teams (road vs home), motivation, etc? It can be daunting at first.

I respect you, Lyons, Houlihans, SJ etc on this site. Obv some have been around longer then others but I have never really seen a thread or post on "how" you broke down the game but "why". I also know every sport has different angles to cover. For example I wouldn't even begin to know how to cap NHL or soccer. I do have a decent starting point with baseball, football and basketball.

If there is such a thread on here or elsewhere that is actually informative I would appreciate a link or feedback as I am still in the very early stages of making my own plays.

BOL

**Shortstop** · 04-08-10, 07:25 PM

Anyone that blindly tails anyone is an idiot, I thought this was simply common sense...