Portland +5

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  • lyon804
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-02-09
    • 6526

    #1
    Portland +5
    Well, there is plenty of interest in this game already and the early action is a little more on Denver than Portland and the line has steamed up to Denver -5.. This is an interesting game that I am leaning Portland at the moment on. The last time these two teams played one another was 03/07/2010 and Portland was a 7 point pup on the road to Denver. I lost that nite taking Portland.as Portland lost by 12 points and actually looked sluggish that game. Portland went into that game on 4 days rest and i thought it would be an advantage for them but it turned out it wasn't. If anybody watched the game remembers that they lost by 12 pts but the game was actually much closer than the final score indicated. Portland made some runs in that game and got within single digits late, but Denver pulled away with some late 3's by Afflalo and Smith.

    I think the line that bookmakers set is real telling considering that Portland has lost to Denver@ Denver by totals of 8,16,12 respectively there last 3 meeting at the Pepsi Center and the line is only set at Denver -4-4.5 with Portland playing back to back on the road now That tells me something about Denver especially the way they have been playing with the absence of K.Martin and head coach George Karl and add to it that Portland is the best team in the NBA playing 0 days rest.


    Me, personally I reccomend waiting on this game if you are leaning Portland. I think the line is solid at Denver -5 and will hold until game time. Watch to see what the late money does on this game. If the the Big shops lean Portland late I know I will be jumping on.
    Last edited by lyon804; 04-01-10, 11:44 AM.
  • DaAce
    SBR MVP
    • 03-28-10
    • 1415

    #2
    Portland +5 is looking like a very solid number for me... I agree with your gametime decision to see where the money comes in on... and it seems like everyone lost that 3/7 game in denver
    Comment
    • NOREGRETS
      SBR MVP
      • 02-12-10
      • 1326

      #3
      Good luck gentlemen
      Comment
      • big0mar
        SBR MVP
        • 01-09-09
        • 3374

        #4
        Books are trying to give people some money right now. I'll be laying off the NBA until the playoffs.
        [B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.

        [/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]
        Comment
        • QUEST001
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 04-01-09
          • 779

          #5
          GL Lyon..Im with you on this one..On Magic as well...are you leaning Magic?
          Comment
          • 70kgman
            SBR MVP
            • 01-31-10
            • 4354

            #6
            Like Portland here. Portland currently playing great and Dallas playing below average with a line that doesn't appear to be adjusted at all to the recent play.
            Comment
            • Unicorn7
              Restricted User
              • 08-29-09
              • 1445

              #7
              GL Lyon. Thks for the nice write up. Stuff like this make SBR fun to read
              Comment
              • fury
                Restricted User
                • 02-20-10
                • 1651

                #8
                I like Portland here too. GL
                Comment
                • Skyline
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-30-09
                  • 493

                  #9
                  Thanks for great write-up.
                  Comment
                  • Wilforth
                    Restricted User
                    • 05-10-08
                    • 16309

                    #10
                    Portland are now in the playoffs. I doubt they'll play at the same level they've played their last few games. Methinks Denver will get out of their funk tonight. BTW, Denver play very well at home against good teams.
                    Comment
                    • morocca
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-23-09
                      • 283

                      #11
                      portland was my pick before this post and will be a double down after reading this. hope i won't regret it but its a gut feeling. may play the over also.
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #12
                        i hate when im opposite of lyons. hopefully denver wins 193-188 - i win, you push...
                        Comment
                        • gesiii
                          Restricted User
                          • 02-06-10
                          • 88

                          #13
                          good logic

                          i'll take denver at home
                          Comment
                          • lyon804
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 11-02-09
                            • 6526

                            #14
                            Guys,

                            Thanks for the comments, points etc.. I wrote this because I had some time and thought it was interesting to point out what I consider a key factor in tonites game.. Line origination and line movement.. I respect the game and respect bookmakers. I also respect sharps. It is very interesting the line opening of Denver -4. Denver, has handled Portland over there last 3 games at home and all 3 games would have covered this number. Just as recent as last month Denver was -7 at home to Portland and covered the number and Portland was in seemingly a better spot at the moment in they are now. Since then Portland has played better and Denver has played worse. Portland comes into this game with no rest playing in Death Valley and bookmakers only opened it at -4?? Well, maybe I am reading too much into that I don't know. I am interested to see what the late movements in the line suggest.

                            I don't buy the notion that Portland is satisfied because they clinched a playoff spot. I don't think them playing in the playoffs was ever a question with them this season. Denver is 2-1 S/U against Portland this year and if they win tonite they will be 3-1 S/U, but also keep in mind this is the NBA and Denver can win tonite and still not cover by 6 pts. If you play Portland, Denver must win by 6 for you to lose the game.


                            I also wouldn't suggest doubling down on Portland or any other team for that manner. This is the NBA were shit happens. Denver could win tonite by 20+pts or straight up lose the game and to be honest neither outcome will surprise me or get my blood pressure up.

                            All, in all with Denver's prolonged struggles on the road that carried over from home and Portlands recent play I expect a good game tonite that could go either way in the end so at this time I am leaning on Portland + the points, but that could all change between now and then as I want to see were the books are leaning as this game is about to tip.
                            Comment
                            • toober89
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 02-22-10
                              • 110

                              #15
                              not a chance...
                              Comment
                              • lyon804
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-02-09
                                • 6526

                                #16
                                Originally posted by toober89
                                not a chance...

                                Not a chance Portland covers?? Or Denver? Which one?
                                Comment
                                • mkasad23
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-14-09
                                  • 2594

                                  #17
                                  i like portland
                                  Comment
                                  • shoebox
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-26-08
                                    • 5710

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by mkasad23
                                    i like portland

                                    sweet
                                    Comment
                                    • suicidekings
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-09
                                      • 9962

                                      #19
                                      Honestly, I was of the same opinion about Portland last night, but the more I weigh this game in my mind, the more I think Denver is going to win this game. To me, the -4 was a very fair line for this matchup, and shows no significant lean from the books one way or another. One thing I can say about this game is that all the pressure is on Denver to perform, whereas Portland has the luxury of coming into Denver and playing their game tonight without a great deal of pressure on them.

                                      Because of this, I'm leaning towards playing Denver 1Q -1.5, and then re-evaluating the game before playing a side on live betting. Not sure yet though.
                                      Comment
                                      • johnson
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-24-10
                                        • 184

                                        #20
                                        I think Nuggets win big tonight after all these losses on road.
                                        Comment
                                        • DaAce
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-28-10
                                          • 1415

                                          #21
                                          Remember LA lost 3 straight on the road and everyone assumed they'd come back home and blow out Toronto but only won by a game winner from Kobe. Not saying this is going to happen, but I believe Denvers in for a dogfight cause they just finished a road trip and come home to that altitude.
                                          Comment
                                          • aca
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-20-06
                                            • 2111

                                            #22
                                            Best of Luck!
                                            Comment
                                            • anjaru
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 02-27-10
                                              • 558

                                              #23
                                              I think we call all agree that it is equally split at this point. But I don't agree that either team will lay and egg tonight and play without motivation. After all, the Lakers aren't involved in this game.
                                              Comment
                                              • No coincidences
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 76300

                                                #24
                                                I'm with you, lyon. I know Denver is supposedly in this "perfect" spot to bounce back, but how long have we been saying that for? I still like the fact that they're playing really bad right now and this is the first game back from a long road trip against one of the hottest teams in the NBA.
                                                Comment
                                                • lakerboy
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 04-02-09
                                                  • 94379

                                                  #25
                                                  I will be enjoying this game from the sidelines. Good Luck Lyon. Lots of good arguments today back and forth on this game. Hope it lives up to the hype.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • STAY STRONG
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-07-10
                                                    • 2498

                                                    #26
                                                    denver pretty tough at home
                                                    Comment
                                                    • moneymaker09
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-25-09
                                                      • 471

                                                      #27
                                                      PORTLAND MONEYLINE ALL IN!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • landers781
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-27-09
                                                        • 4774

                                                        #28
                                                        I am leaning portland as well. Been thinking about it all day and it just seems portland is the play tonight. The only thing that has me backing off a bit is a road b2b at denver on a national tv game. How would the line be like on a normal night? How many bettors dont know too much about NBA and see a team who is supposed to be kicking ass only a 5 point fave at home? I dont know, I know TNT games tend to be close and I feel as though Portland still has the edge here. I see the people that are on Denver are on them simply because they are "due" for a strong outing.

                                                        I like the argument "not a chance", very good input
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Baller85
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 03-21-10
                                                          • 305

                                                          #29
                                                          At this point in the season, it makes most sense to go with the home team for a variety of reasons. Denver will win and Dallas will win.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ikamoku
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 03-24-10
                                                            • 263

                                                            #30
                                                            maybe ur right but they wont cover!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • tmorton
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 11-15-09
                                                              • 560

                                                              #31
                                                              Dever rolls tonight! They need the win a lot more than Portland! Denver by 14
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ikamoku
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 03-24-10
                                                                • 263

                                                                #32
                                                                not without martin
                                                                Comment
                                                                • beanbag
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-21-10
                                                                  • 2364

                                                                  #33
                                                                  portland ats has been amazing this month
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • constrictor
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 06-08-09
                                                                    • 668

                                                                    #34
                                                                    denver easy
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dexter
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                                      • 25829

                                                                      #35
                                                                      no coin? whats the size of your play?

                                                                      i only ask because you are so adamant about portland and have been on them for days now. are we talking 50x your normal play or 2x?

                                                                      i just hate it when people claim things (not accusing you) after the fact. but if it lost ("oh, i only lost 1x")......that irks me. goes on waaaay too much here.
                                                                      Comment
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