Key's NBA Line Wednesday 3.31.10

**coachkap** · 03-31-10, 10:00 AM

Help us understand how to effectively use your system so we can profit.... If a team is a positive rating what does it mean in relation to the game spread.... The Knicks are +10 vs. the trailblazers, you have Portland -4, how do we compare the game spread to your rating?

second, the point totals...? The golden state/utah total at my book is 230 presently. Your total I think, is 224.5? Does that mean to bet the UNDER...? Please elaborate. Maybe we can benefit from your post. thanks.

**Wolf40** · 03-31-10, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by coachkap

Help us understand how to effectively use your system so we can profit.... If a team is a positive rating what does it mean in relation to the game spread.... The Knicks are +10 vs. the trailblazers, you have Portland -4, how do we compare the game spread to your rating?

second, the point totals...? The golden state/utah total at my book is 230 presently. Your total I think, is 224.5? Does that mean to bet the UNDER...? Please elaborate. Maybe we can benefit from your post. thanks.

Yes I would actually love to hear your elaboration as well

**KeyElement** · 03-31-10, 12:41 PM

Knicks +11

I suppose a guy (and one probably will) could make a case for the Big Bad Wolf over Little Red Riding Hood or Goliath over David, but I have managed to ignore that and will continue to do so. Unfortunately what we do is neither a fairy tale nor a biblical story and laying 11 points in the NBA is seldom a wise thing to do. Double digit favorites do not have great records and the Trailblazers are not exempt, being just 2-4 ATS in that category. The bettor should also be aware both covers were versus Minnesota very early in the season when the Timberwolves were 1-5 with their only win at home over New Jersey and 13 days later when the Timberwolves were 1-12 on their way to a 1-15 start with the only win being over New Jersey, on their way to a 1-18 start. Neither of those teams is that bad anymore but the evidence is clear that the Trailblazers caught extremely weak competition the two and only times they covered double digits. They failed to cover double digits, at home, versus Detroit New Jersey, Memphis and Washington. Those are teams the Knicks can play with any day of the week. At this time I rate the Knicks with a better probability of covering a spread, any spread, than I do the Trailblazers and anything over my stated personal line of 4 is a gift. We would look good at +10 but some guy with too much disposable income has again given us a bonus point at +11.

**KeyElement** · 03-31-10, 12:58 PM

The line I make is always stated for the home team, i.e., what the home team should be. As you can see by my POD, I stated Portland should be -4, but they have gone to -11 and I have jumped the Knicks.

The line should be used as another tool in your own handicapping. My lines run a pretty consistent 53-54% versus the books lines, and that is on all games. Obviously the greater the difference, the stronger the play. Today you may be saying to yourself "gee, I sure like Miami-Detroit over, let's see what Key's line is." So you look and see I have posted 195 and that gives you some confirmation on your thinking.

When Quest shows up, he will tell you going against my lines is not usually a good idea. The POD I post is normally one of my greater differences coupled with a line that has moved in what I consider the wrong way, added value. Hope that helps.

**streakyrocket22** · 03-31-10, 01:14 PM

So do you think playing Dallas -2.5 and OVER BOS/OKC 191.5 are good plays?

**Hulk32ster** · 03-31-10, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by KeyElement

Knicks +11

I suppose a guy (and one probably will) could make a case for the Big Bad Wolf over Little Red Riding Hood or Goliath over David, but I have managed to ignore that and will continue to do so. Unfortunately what we do is neither a fairy tale nor a biblical story and laying 11 points in the NBA is seldom a wise thing to do. Double digit favorites do not have Sterling records and the Trailblazers are not exempt, being just 2-4 ATS in that category. The bettor should also be aware both covers were versus Minnesota very early in the season when the Timberwolves were 1-5 with their only win at home over New Jersey and 13 days later when the Timberwolves were 1-12 on their way to a 1-15 start with the only win being over New Jersey, on their way to a 1-18 start. Neither of those teams is that bad anymore but the evidence is clear that the Trailblazers caught extremely weak competition the two and only times they covered double digits. They failed to cover double digits, at home, versus Detroit New Jersey, Memphis and Washington. Those are teams the Knicks can play with any day of the week. At this time I rate the Knicks with a better probability of covering a spread, any spread, than I do the Trailblazers and anything over my stated personal line of 4 is a gift. We would look good at +10 but some guy with too much disposable income has again given us a bonus point at +11.

Is today the first day you try this or post it? If not, have you been pretty successful in the past?
I have seen similar computer generated lines that have not worked out in the long-run!
Hopefully you are on the right track!

**KeyElement** · 03-31-10, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by streakyrocket22

So do you think playing Dallas -2.5 and OVER BOS/OKC 191.5 are good plays?

You are reading the over correctly, but I am saying Memphis should be -4. If Dallas is -2.5, Memphis is the play. 6.5 point variance from my line.

**streakyrocket22** · 03-31-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by KeyElement

You are reading the over correctly, but I am saying Memphis should be -4. If Dallas is -2.5, Memphis is the play. 6.5 point variance from my line.

I see thanks for the clarification! GL tonight im also on Knicks +11

**KeyElement** · 03-31-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by Hulk32ster

Is today the first day you try this or post it? If not, have you been pretty successful in the past?
I have seen similar computer generated lines that have not worked out in the long-run!
Hopefully you are on the right track!

This is no experiment. I have been making my own lines for the NBA for 4 years, just not at this site. Elsewhere people follow my lines religiously as confirmation of their own handicapping. My lines will beat the spread about 53-54% of the time on their own. Well worth using as a tool.

**giants06** · 03-31-10, 02:18 PM

Like your Atlanta line very much.