Interesting NBA moneyline info.....

[Nimo]

In one method as part of my capping, I try to make my own line based on home/away wins. I base it on Euro odds for ease. For example the Tor/Char game:

Toronto Away w/l = 12-24, 12 out of 36 = 33.33% win rate reverted to Euro odds = 1 divided by 0.3333(the percentage) = 3.00 Euro odds converted to US odds = +200

I do that for all teams, all games then I check the current moneyline odds at the book I usually use ( The Greek) and then run the lines through the moneyline/spread converter here on SBR. Here are my results for tonight's games.

Toronto my odds +200, thegreek odds +375, converter odds +456
Charlotte my odds -345, thegreek odds -475, converter odds -667

SA, my odds -106, greek odds -380, converter odds -455
NJ, my odds +619. greek odds +310, converter odds +341

Lakers, my odds -159, greek odds -240, converter odds -250
NWO, my odds -159, greek odds +200, converter odds +198

Denver my odds +110, greek odds +180, converter odds +179
Dallas, my odds -227, greek odds -220, converter odds -222

NY, my odds +240, greek odds +700, converter odds +1313
Utah, my odds -370, greek odds -1000, converter odds -5000

Based on this IMHO NWO +5.5 looks like a good starting point to cap further.

[Nimo]

Looking good so far, my odds are lower on the fav, play the dog

Toronto won +9 and ML +375
NJ won +7 and ML +310
NWO won +6 and ML +200


Dallas my odds higher than book odds and they are handling Denver no problem
NY my odds much lower and they are staying within the spread and are currently within 1 point. Is a +700ML possible? I hope so http://forum.sbrforum.com/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

[manidyon]

wow.. good.. any play 2molo?

[Nimo]

I am still waiting for all the lines to come up but my odds based on this formula are:

OKC -4.5, ml -133
Phil +4.5 ml +200

Sac +7.5, ml +443
Ind -7.5, ml -119

Clip +7.5, ml +362
Mil -7.5, ml -227

Phx +1.5, ml -106
Chi -1.5, ml -141

Was +5.5, ml +300
Hou -5.5, ml -119

Based on opening and current lines for the games that are on the board, Chicago +3.5 with a possible ML looking good.

[Nimo]

Final numbers

Chicago is the best play at +3 with my odds showing -141 which is a cross over from a dog to a fav.

Clippers at +10.5 look good as well since I have Mil at -227 and the book line is -700, according to the converter it should be -1111

Was/Hou is close to where it should be.

OKC/Phil is close to where it should be

Indiana is confusing since my odds have Ind at -119, where greek has it -300, but SAC my odds are +443 where greek has them +250, maybe a middle with Ind moneyline and SAC +7