Heavy! Mavs @ blazers

[Aurelius]

The whole Dallas team hasn't been too hot right now. Blazers on the other hand are
8-2 last 10

nice edit, your post makes sense now

[alamo]

This one will probably be decided by a bucket or two... Close games = PLUS POINTS

[mundane]

fwiw, 3rd game in 4 nights for mavs!

[sweetjones55]

OK here we go boys! We got some RLM now all the way from -2.5 to -3.5 on every website on the internet. I am going to go ahead and lock it in heavy right now with my local who still has it at -3.

[sweetjones55]

Blazers -3 LOCKED HEAVY

[sweetjones55]

fwiw, 3rd game in 4 nights for mavs!

Didn't realize that, Nice mundane.

[beerman2619]

Mavs suck balls Blazers here easy. Rudy Fernandez also will be playing tonight.

[QUEST001]

Portland line should have been higher to begin with..Books are begging U to take Portland..I feel the rust already. Portland hasn't played since Sunday. Dallas will take this game add in the redemption factor..Dallas lost the previous 2 in Dallas to Portland..

[sweetjones55]

Portland line should have been higher to begin with..Books are begging U to take Portland..I feel the rust already. Portland hasn't played since Sunday. Dallas will take this game add in the redemption factor..Dallas lost the previous 2 in Dallas to Portland..

Wrong. If the books were begging for Portland money then why would the line go up from Portland -2.5 to -3.5? Vegas is absolutely not begging for more portland money. Vegas is begging for more money on Dallas actually as the betting public is on Dallas right now and they moved the line a whole point in favor of Dallas bettors from Mavs +2.5 to Mavs +3.5.

As for the redemption factor, I don't think there is much. Dallas isn't a team that plays with a chip on it's shoulder as evidenced in this matchup already when they lost @ home to Portland and then lost AGAIN to portland @ home without Roy.

[Gopi-1]

The Mavs are one of those exceptions to the rule, they seem to play better and cover more on the road than at home, but if I have to bet this game, I would rather play the totals and will take the UNDER (192.5) in a heartbeat, it's so enticing to me for some reason...

[sweetjones55]

The Mavs are one of those exceptions to the rule, they seem to play better and cover more on the road than at home, but if I have to bet this game, I would rather play the totals and will take the UNDER (192.5) in a heartbeat, it's so enticing to me for some reason...

The total on this game is interesting but I think I would lean over for the simple fact that these teams have had SO much rest for this game. I think both teams will shoot a high % tonight. Both teams have also hit more over's than under's thus far this year. The line moved up from 192 to 192.5 and 193 which isn't a bad sign for the under but definitely more of a good sign for the over. Lol and if you are taking it in a "heartbeat" there has to be some good reason for it.

[quick$]

Thanks for analysis SJ. You're always pretty thorough.
This does makes it tougher for me to take Dal. Will have to reevaluate.
May still stick to my guns on Dal though...
Maybe small play....will wait b4 tip off.
BOL to you.

[sweetjones55]

Mavs suck balls Blazers here easy. Rudy Fernandez also will be playing tonight.

I see Rudy Fernandez listed as doubtful, where do you see differently? He doesn't change my thinking on taking the blazers either way but it'd be nice if he got in there.

"Rudy Fernandez participated in part of Wednesday's practice, but then pulled himself out because of discomfort in his left thigh. Fernandez missed Sunday's game at Phoenix because of a strained left quadricep. Fernandez estimated he is 70 percent healthy and that he would only play if he is at 100 percent. Fernandez said he would make a decision on his status for tonight's game at the Thursday shootaround."

[sweetjones55]

Thanks for analysis SJ. You're always pretty thorough.
This does makes it tougher for me to take Dal. Will have to reevaluate.
May still stick to my guns on Dal though...
Maybe small play....will wait b4 tip off.
BOL to you.

No problem, if you are really this unsure you are better off staying off the game and putting more down on that game you find another night that you absolutely love. I have been laying off light plays and just putting more on games I really like. I think it's much more effective than just putting good money on games you don't really feel great about just to gamble because you're bored and want to put a play in on a day when there is a short board like today with three games.

[mundane]

under is a good play imo. blazers already plays slowww then add the fact that this is the 3rd game in 4 nights for the mavs. plus the possibility of these 2 matching up in the first round so this one shld definitely have a playoff feel to it. and who knows, blazers might come out rusty having last played 3/21. so barring a foul-fest at the end of 4th qt or an OT, imo UNDER is the correct play on the totals on this one. but then again, im not a big over/under guy.

[QUEST001]

Wrong. If the books were begging for Portland money then why would the line go up from Portland -2.5 to -3.5? Vegas is absolutely not begging for more portland money. Vegas is begging for more money on Dallas actually as the betting public is on Dallas right now and they moved the line a whole point in favor of Dallas bettors from Mavs +2.5 to Mavs +3.5.

As for the redemption factor, I don't think there is much. Dallas isn't a team that plays with a chip on it's shoulder as evidenced in this matchup already when they lost @ home to Portland and then lost AGAIN to portland @ home without Roy.

Rule 1 You will loose more often if you bet with the public. Hmm..2.5 to 3.5 money on portland..I already liked Dallas when I capped this game last night..Now even more. Good Luck though it's a game any f**kn thing can happend. I just see some positive trends for Dallas backers..

[sweetjones55]

Rule 1 You will loose more often if you bet with the public. Hmm..2.5 to 3.5 money on portland..I already liked Dallas when I capped this game last night..Now even more. Good Luck though it's a game any f**kn thing can happend. I just see some positive trends for Dallas backers..

I really don't understand this at at all. You are saying you will lose more often with the public but then you like Dallas even more now that the public is taking Dallas? I think you are confused my man. Vegas is trying to get more of the public on Dallas by giving them an extra point from Mavs +2.5 to +3.5.

I think you should listen to yourself and Rule #1 and take the non-public play Portland and rake in the money with Vegas.

[QUEST001]

I really don't understand this at at all. You are saying you will lose more often with the public but then you like Dallas even more now that the public is taking Dallas? I think you are confused my man. Vegas is trying to get more of the public on Dallas by giving them an extra point from Mavs +2.5 to +3.5.

I think you should listen to yourself and Rule #1 and take the non-public play Portland and rake in the money with Vegas.

Public is on Portland.. money has moved the line. Get it? I'm on Dallas, against the public..are you new at this?

[napalmrain]

Quest001, how can public be on Portland when every tracker shows that the public is on Dallas?

[Aurelius]

Public is on Portland..

[acomia05]

Taking the Blazers @ -3.5 (-110) 5Dimes

[Sawyer]

No bet for me but if I have to pick a side, definetely I would go with Blazers -3!

[sweetjones55]

Public is on Portland.. money has moved the line. Get it? I'm on Dallas, against the public..are you new at this?

No my freind you are obviously new at this. The public is definitely on Dallas at over 55% on every site. I also pay for services that are more accurate and track the public numbers and all say public majority on Dallas. God knows you don't pay for these services so you can go checkout covers.com and sportsinsights for free and see for yourself, new guy. I'll bet you all of my SBR points and any amount of side money you want to take on it that I'm right. Hedge out of Dallas and take Portland.

[jojo85]

liking the confidence dude

[quick$]

diffeference of opinion doesnt require attcking the other person credentials.
Your thoughts and view is appreciated by novices. But just leave it at that
Slamming someone won't chang their mind. As for SJ55, I tracked backk his
early post and he's solid as a capper. I see Dal win/cover but he doesn't
so BOL to each.

[krazey47409]

money deff on dallas

[tavinator13]

Rule 1 You will loose more often if you bet with the public. Hmm..2.5 to 3.5 money on portland..I already liked Dallas when I capped this game last night..Now even more. Good Luck though it's a game any f**kn thing can happend. I just see some positive trends for Dallas backers..

Public is on Portland.. money has moved the line. Get it? I'm on Dallas, against the public..are you new at this?

In most cases you would be right but this is a case of Reverse Line Movement (RLM), where the books move the line to the side the public is on. Can be interpreted different ways, but the public is on Dallas regardless. BOL to you both, I'm on Portland ML as I see this being a tight one.

[sweetjones55]

In most cases you would be right but this is a case of Reverse Line Movement (RLM), where the books move the line to the side the public is on. Can be interpreted different ways, but the public is on Dallas regardless. BOL to you both, I'm on Portland ML as I see this being a tight one.

[sweetjones55]

Over in the LAC/HOU game is another strong play, it's the highest total between them two in a while and the total has gone up 2 points already. Something up.

[sweetjones55]

Is anyone taking anything on my Heat? I live in Miami and know this team as well as anyone and I still don't find ways to make money off them other than fading them on B2B with travel. Bulls are just as unpredictable also.

[Gopi-1]

The total on this game is interesting but I think I would lean over for the simple fact that these teams have had SO much rest for this game. I think both teams will shoot a high % tonight. Both teams have also hit more over's than under's thus far this year. The line moved up from 192 to 192.5 and 193 which isn't a bad sign for the under but definitely more of a good sign for the over. Lol and if you are taking it in a "heartbeat" there has to be some good reason for it.

That's the key right there, and you missed it, it was just right under your nose. Rest means they will be more active on defense. Little rest means more points and less defense...

[KiDBaZkiT]

Over in the LAC/HOU game is another strong play, it's the highest total between them two in a while and the total has gone up 2 points already. Something up.

I'll tell you whats up, Houston dont play any D, OKC was shooting almost 79% through the first 17 min of last nights game. The only thing that would worry me about taking the over is Houston can shoot low percentages some nights that murder overs. I wont touch this game If I had to play it I would take the Clipps.

[sweetjones55]

Mavericks +3 @ Blazers -3

I am looking at the Blazers and Mavericks game tommrow and I think I may have found the game I might want to hit up HEAVY. Dallas has not been playing good lately. They are 2-3 their last 5 games with all 3 losses by double digits. They are also 0-5-1 their last 6 games against the spread. One of their wins was to the Clippers last game, a game where they trailed going into the fourth. They really played horribly that day but just went on a crazy 22-3 run to start the 4th. It's the Clips lol.

They face the Blazers who are 8-2 their last 10 games SU. They lost their last game @ PHX by 6 and pushed. I think Portland gets it together coming off the loss and stirs up some home cookin! They have had 2 extra days rest for this game also than Dallas. Dallas played Tuesday and Portland played Sunday.

Matchup wise Portland is also looking good. They are 2-0 this year SU and ATS vs Dallas and both games were in Dallas. Portland even took down the Mavs without Brandon Roy in one of the games. To Dallas credit though, they have been playing well on the road this year with a 22-13 record. Portland is a nice 25-13 @ home and a lot of those losses were without their main man Roy.

Regarding the line movement and public betting, Public is to my surprise leaning Dallas on this game early on to the tune of 56% Mavs. I would love to see some slight RLM on this game to Blazers -3.5 and I will go ahead and pound it HEAVY. Let's wait and see to get some info from the line movement before we make a decision.

Blazers -3 LOCKED HEAVY WINNER!!!

Easyyy double digit win for the Blazersss. CASHHH

[Intangible]

Solid pick

[Aurelius]

nowitzki bricks 10% of teams fga instead