SK: Wednesday, March 24

[suicidekings]

Tuesday's card is crap. Wednesday's however, has some great matchups...

Booked Plays

BOS -4 (-105) x3
UTA -3 (-105) x3
MEM pk (-105) x3

Leans

IND -6
SAS -1
SAC -1.5

[petermans23]

Hi suicidekings! I took your 3 Booked plays and your 3 Leans for Wednesday March 24 and booked all six of them. I think you are the best here now when Lakerboy has retired. Good luck to both of us!

[suicidekings]

Hi suicidekings! I took your 3 Booked plays and your 3 Leans for Wednesday March 24 and booked all six of them. I think you are the best here now when Lakerboy has retired. Good luck to both of us!

I appreciate the sentiment, but I'm far from the best. Keep an eye on Lyon, Dexter, and Shoebox.

Also, with respect to the leans, I could play all of them, or I might decide to go against all of them, depending on line movement overnight. Not sure yet. Careful tailing me or anyone..

Good luck to both of us tomorrow.

[mkasad23]

kings are-1.5 against the nets what do you think of this one

[strickerson]

i like memphis and utah. two consistent matchups. utah has won 9 straight vs. raptors and memphis has won 5 of the last 6 vs. warriors(espn). gl on boston. i hope carmelo's 30 points wont matter like the past 2 games! he makes denver hard to bet against so ima have to spectate that one.

[suicidekings]

Tuesday's card is crap. Wednesday's however, has some great matchups...

Booked Plays

BOS -4 (-105) x3
UTA -3 (-105) x3
MEM pk (-105) x3

Leans

IND -6
SAS -1
SAC -1.5

Booked Plays Added

ORL/ATL O195.5 (-105) x3

[petermans23]

Hi again suicidekings. Why did you mark over SAC -1,5? To me that is the strongest of all six bets for tomorrow night? New Jersey has been soooo bad and are even worse when they play at home. And Sacramento has been playing rather well lately and covered against better team and even won several good games. Could you please explain your thoughts on this game and what I´ve might have missed regardin this game? Highly appriciate your comments and your Tips. Best regards.

[3PtShooter]

good luck

[suicidekings]

Hi again suicidekings. Why did you mark over SAC -1,5? To me that is the strongest of all six bets for tomorrow night? New Jersey has been soooo bad and are even worse when they play at home. And Sacramento has been playing rather well lately and covered against better team and even won several good games. Could you please explain your thoughts on this game and what I´ve might have missed regardin this game? Highly appriciate your comments and your Tips. Best regards.

SAC is looking at tonight as a chance to take a win from a weak team, but so are the Nets... Tyreke is still out with a concussion, this is the first game in a cross country road trip for the Kings. They might still win it, but there are better games on the board featuring more consistent teams tonight.

[lyon804]

I appreciate the sentiment, but I'm far from the best. Keep an eye on Lyon, Dexter, and Shoebox.

Also, with respect to the leans, I could play all of them, or I might decide to go against all of them, depending on line movement overnight. Not sure yet. Careful tailing me or anyone..

Good luck to both of us tomorrow.

nah, dude from what i have seen from you i am impressed.. i haven't seen you post many losers.. can't really think of any lately. dont know about tonites card myself.. little mixed about it. not really liking the jazz play as everybody here thinks it a free lunch.. raptors getting no respect for a team that has proved they can beat anybody at home.. i feel the value in taking raptors +140 ML.. That being said i haven't rushed out and did it. i have no plays today and really dont like this card all that much. also keep in mind the jazz lost to the clippers on the road not long ago laying 6 so they surely can lose to Toronto.

[suicidekings]

nah, dude from what i have seen from you i am impressed.. i haven't seen you post many losers.. can't really think of any lately. dont know about tonites card myself.. little mixed about it. not really liking the jazz play as everybody here thinks it a free lunch.. raptors getting no respect for a team that has proved they can beat anybody at home.. i feel the value in taking raptors +140 ML.. That being said i haven't rushed out and did it. i have no plays today and really dont like this card all that much. also keep in mind the jazz lost to the clippers on the road not long ago laying 6 so they surely can lose to Toronto.

I booked my play on the Jazz minutes after the line came out, and I'm definitely less than impressed to see that I'm on the 80% side of the play. However, the Jazz are 18-7 since Feb 1, and only one game behind Denver. The Raptors have been the exact opposite (9-12), with only one win against a playoff bound team since Feb 1 (a 106-105 win over ATL). I know there have been other issues for TOR with Bosh out, etc, but that really doesn't excuse their play. Despite their injuries, the Jazz have played like a contender, and I expect them to win tonight.

That being said, I'm considering playing TOR ML in the 1Q/1H as well. They have the edge in the 1H, but the Jazz 2H are the better team. Still thinking about it.

[shoebox]

SK thanks for the props

wolves look like the best play on the board tonight, not sure if I will drop the hammer

[lyon804]

I booked my play on the Jazz minutes after the line came out, and I'm definitely less than impressed to see that I'm on the 80% side of the play. However, the Jazz are 18-7 since Feb 1, and only one game behind Denver. The Raptors have been the exact opposite (9-12), with only one win against a playoff bound team since Feb 1 (a 106-105 win over ATL). I know there have been other issues for TOR with Bosh out, etc, but that really doesn't excuse their play. Despite their injuries, the Jazz have played like a contender, and I expect them to win tonight.

That being said, I'm considering playing TOR ML in the 1Q/1H as well. They have the edge in the 1H, but the Jazz 2H are the better team. Still thinking about it.

your right.. jazz certainly a 2H team and the raptors usually play there best in the 1H.

[lakerboy]

SK thanks for the props

wolves look like the best play on the board tonight, not sure if I will drop the hammer

at +10.5 last night they made me smile before i made that phone call

[shoebox]

at +10.5 last night they made me smile before i made that phone call

Got em at +10 might up the anty and even some ML pie

[suicidekings]

Added Live with 2:50 left in the 3Q

Magic +5 (-108) x3
Magic ML (+247) x1

[suicidekings]

Lakers ML (+113) x10

[suicidekings]

Lakers ML (+113) x10

Adding LAL +4 (-108) x5

[HoulihansTX]

I'm starting to play live lines at 5Dimes. It offers lots of value for those who keep a watchful eye.

But I am really interested how you choose when to hit over/Unders, and do you use anything to indicate what side to choose? I've been using covers O/U predictor with success, but I find their O/ U predictions to be more accurate in the 2ndH than the 1st. Any tips?

[strickerson]

good call on utah. i took lakers +4 and the 1h has me worried... still confident in memphis tho

[suicidekings]

I'm starting to play live lines at 5Dimes. It offers lots of value for those who keep a watchful eye.

But I am really interested how you choose when to hit over/Unders, and do you use anything to indicate what side to choose? I've been using covers O/U predictor with success, but I find their O/ U predictions to be more accurate in the 2ndH than the 1st. Any tips?

I use my game database to produce two sets of spreads/totals for each game to compare to the available lines. Both systems are works in progress and have different approaches.

One is based on full season stats using FG%, 3PT%, and FT% to provide a baseline, and then I add HCA to the results. From there, the assumption is that teams will trend towards their season average, and the span which the available line deviates from the season average would make me lean over/under.

The second one uses recent games (last 30 days = ~15 games) for each team subdivided by home and away to set the total. Once I have what I think is a fair total, I compare it to the available line. My assumption in this one is that the books are generating what they believe to be fair lines as well, and that typically they have an opinion on the over/under, so therefore will cheat it in the direction they are leaning. Depending on how far my total deviates from the available total, I'll call it an over/under.

So far the second approach has been far more accurate, and I'd recommend you lean in that direction for totals. I actually just looked at my records for this system's success for the first time in a while, and over 370 plays, it's been doing remarkably well since I left it to do it's thing (however none of it has been tracked publicly). I'm going to start posting them and see what happens.

[suicidekings]

MEM 2H -5.5 (-105) x3

[suicidekings]

5-2 (+21.15u) with Memphis pending. Thank you Lakers...