A few days ago I was sitting pretty with over 700 SBR points. Since then, my account has plummeted to 400. I sort of stopped doing blogs at about the same time I started my losing streak.
This will be a blog where I analyze each NBA game and then post a range of spreads that I think is appropriate.
76ers @ Hawks- The Hawks started off the season strong, and now they have to prove whether or not they are truly an upper tier team. They are in a similar position Orlando was in last year. I don’t think they are as good as the Magic were last year, but they should be able to do their job against Philadelphia. After two overtime losses, they blew out Chicago and had a day off to collect themselves. They will be motivated at home against Philadelphia. Philadelphia is in the middle of an agonizing schedule where they lost to Phoenix, lost to LA, and lost to Orlando. Now they play Atlanta, and then Boston. What does this kind of schedule do to a team like Philadelphia? I would guess it motivates them at first, but when they go 0-3, they might start to be like screw this.
Estimated spread: Atlanta -6 to -11
Warriors @ Magic- The Warriors is an interesting basketball team. They rarely show up unmotivated, with the youthful and nervous Stephen Curry at point guard. I was watching them against the heat, and the only thing that seemed to give the Heat the edge over the Warriors was Dwayne Wade. The Warriors will be tired after their loss to Miami, but they will be motivated because it was a close loss, and a win in Orlando would essentially erase the loss in Miami from everyone’s minds.
Orlando won by 8 in their last meeting, but the Warriors behind Curry are only improving. I expect a fast start for the Warriors. They might win the first half. But, the Magic at home will figure it out in the 2nd half and probably pull ahead within the 3rd quarter against a team that’s not strong/energized enough to compete against the real Orlando Magic.
Estimated spread: Orlando -7 to -13. (But I like Golden State in the first half).
Bobcats @ Celtics- The Bobcats are young and vulnerable, and they only show up when they want to. Michael Jordan is trying to knock some sense into them, and it hasn’t seemed to work yet. The Bobcats have gotten crushed by the Celtics twice this year. I don’t get the impression that the Bobcats are the “revenge” type of team. They are the team that lost to the Nets, and then wasn’t angry enough to beat them in their rematch.
The Celtics are slowly starting to be doubted by the public. I think they will come through in a game where it’s young vs. old and where the Celtics need the world to gain their faith in them again after they lost to the Nets.
Estimated spread: Boston -7 to -13.
Cavaliers @ Nets- I get the feelings that this will be the Cavs’ biggest win against the Nets. By the way they handled the Knicks, they are obviously enjoying the idea of blowing out teams. The Nets are just not good enough to beat an athletic, talented team like the Cavs. They can beat the Bobcats on a bad day because the Bobcats aren’t talented, and they can beat the Celtics on a bad day when the Celtics are old. The Cavs, after their losing streak, are picking on the smaller teams in the league.
Estimated spread: Cavs -11 to -17.
The Pistons are playing New York. The Pistons are rarely motivated to play bad teams, even when they lose the first meeting. Detroit also never feels like they need to prove anything, even after a close loss to a team like Boston. They are also tired from no rest. The Knicks are a humble team with a lot of new players, and they will feel excited to bounce back after a bad loss to Cleveland. Losing like that doesn’t insult them. They are used to it.
Estimated spread: Knicks –2 to -4.5.
Grizzlies @ Hornets
The Grizzlies will drop below .500 if they lose this game, while the Hornets will drop to .500 if they lose. I think that fact emotionally favors Memphis. Let’s remember, the Hornets are without their best player Chris Paul. I think it makes a difference in this game, because the Hornets have won enough games without Chris Paul that the Grizzlies who have a lot to prove will show up. I would expect that the Hornets would be starting to lose some of their injury motivation, especially since beating the Grizzlies isn’t a big deal anyway. The Grizzlies lost 2 close games to New Orleans already 111-113 and 102-109 OT. Since they have similar records, and New Orleans is at home, I expect the Hornets to be favored by 3, but I think the Grizzlies should be the ones who are favored.
Estimated spread: Grizzlies -2 to -5.
Wizards @ Bucks
The Bucks seem to have a problem with the Wizards this year. They are 0-2. However, they are coming off an overtime loss, and the revenge factor will come into play. The Wizards are coming off close a win over New Jersey. Close wins over New Jersey are dangerous for a team because it might give them the false impression that they are on the right track. I like Milwaukee, who is coming off an overtime loss, to take its anger out on the Wizards at home.
Estimated spread: Milwaukee -9 to -12.
Timberwolves @ Mavericks
I have been wrong so many times in a row on the Mavs because I keep picking against them. I think the Mavs will keep beating teams at the end of the game until they become overconfident.
Estimate spread: Mavs -5 to -8.
Kings @ Rockets
Both teams are coming off close losses, but the Kings have an opportunity to prove something by beating Houston. I really think the Kings can beat the Rockets by being bigger and stronger than they are. I also think they are more mentally tough.
Estimated spread: Kings -2 to -4.
Thunder @ Nuggets
Wow! This one snuck up on me. Great game, I hope I can catch the end (I have a rehearsal tonight). I think the Thunder, much like the Cavs, have the potential to be overrated because of their consistency. Against the Raptors, the coach of the Thunder screamed at their players for cutting the lead to 9. A lot of coaches would consider this a safe lead and blow it. The Thunder are much more consistent in beating teams that they should beat, which gives them a good regular season record. Denver is much more likely to just not show up to random meaningless games, but this isn’t the type of game where that would happen. Here’s my bold prediction: Vegas will set the line at -6, and the sharps will POUND the Thunder. I actually like Denver to win by a few points.
Estimated line: Denver -5 to -7.5.
Pacers @ Trailblazers
The Pacers, who are out of the playoff race, just got pounded by the Lakers. Now they have to play the Blazers, who are playing like it matters. I don’t think the Pacers will have everything figured out in one day.
Estimated line: Blazers -7 to -12
Suns @ Clippers
Phoenix just beat Denver, and now they travel to play LAC. LAC just beat Utah, and that win will given them hope to beat a team they just lost badly to. They are at home and rejuvenated. I think the Suns are a better team than the Clippers and they will win, but the Clippers will show up.
Estimated line: Suns -3 to -8.5
This will be a blog where I analyze each NBA game and then post a range of spreads that I think is appropriate.
76ers @ Hawks- The Hawks started off the season strong, and now they have to prove whether or not they are truly an upper tier team. They are in a similar position Orlando was in last year. I don’t think they are as good as the Magic were last year, but they should be able to do their job against Philadelphia. After two overtime losses, they blew out Chicago and had a day off to collect themselves. They will be motivated at home against Philadelphia. Philadelphia is in the middle of an agonizing schedule where they lost to Phoenix, lost to LA, and lost to Orlando. Now they play Atlanta, and then Boston. What does this kind of schedule do to a team like Philadelphia? I would guess it motivates them at first, but when they go 0-3, they might start to be like screw this.
Estimated spread: Atlanta -6 to -11
Warriors @ Magic- The Warriors is an interesting basketball team. They rarely show up unmotivated, with the youthful and nervous Stephen Curry at point guard. I was watching them against the heat, and the only thing that seemed to give the Heat the edge over the Warriors was Dwayne Wade. The Warriors will be tired after their loss to Miami, but they will be motivated because it was a close loss, and a win in Orlando would essentially erase the loss in Miami from everyone’s minds.
Orlando won by 8 in their last meeting, but the Warriors behind Curry are only improving. I expect a fast start for the Warriors. They might win the first half. But, the Magic at home will figure it out in the 2nd half and probably pull ahead within the 3rd quarter against a team that’s not strong/energized enough to compete against the real Orlando Magic.
Estimated spread: Orlando -7 to -13. (But I like Golden State in the first half).
Bobcats @ Celtics- The Bobcats are young and vulnerable, and they only show up when they want to. Michael Jordan is trying to knock some sense into them, and it hasn’t seemed to work yet. The Bobcats have gotten crushed by the Celtics twice this year. I don’t get the impression that the Bobcats are the “revenge” type of team. They are the team that lost to the Nets, and then wasn’t angry enough to beat them in their rematch.
The Celtics are slowly starting to be doubted by the public. I think they will come through in a game where it’s young vs. old and where the Celtics need the world to gain their faith in them again after they lost to the Nets.
Estimated spread: Boston -7 to -13.
Cavaliers @ Nets- I get the feelings that this will be the Cavs’ biggest win against the Nets. By the way they handled the Knicks, they are obviously enjoying the idea of blowing out teams. The Nets are just not good enough to beat an athletic, talented team like the Cavs. They can beat the Bobcats on a bad day because the Bobcats aren’t talented, and they can beat the Celtics on a bad day when the Celtics are old. The Cavs, after their losing streak, are picking on the smaller teams in the league.
Estimated spread: Cavs -11 to -17.
The Pistons are playing New York. The Pistons are rarely motivated to play bad teams, even when they lose the first meeting. Detroit also never feels like they need to prove anything, even after a close loss to a team like Boston. They are also tired from no rest. The Knicks are a humble team with a lot of new players, and they will feel excited to bounce back after a bad loss to Cleveland. Losing like that doesn’t insult them. They are used to it.
Estimated spread: Knicks –2 to -4.5.
Grizzlies @ Hornets
The Grizzlies will drop below .500 if they lose this game, while the Hornets will drop to .500 if they lose. I think that fact emotionally favors Memphis. Let’s remember, the Hornets are without their best player Chris Paul. I think it makes a difference in this game, because the Hornets have won enough games without Chris Paul that the Grizzlies who have a lot to prove will show up. I would expect that the Hornets would be starting to lose some of their injury motivation, especially since beating the Grizzlies isn’t a big deal anyway. The Grizzlies lost 2 close games to New Orleans already 111-113 and 102-109 OT. Since they have similar records, and New Orleans is at home, I expect the Hornets to be favored by 3, but I think the Grizzlies should be the ones who are favored.
Estimated spread: Grizzlies -2 to -5.
Wizards @ Bucks
The Bucks seem to have a problem with the Wizards this year. They are 0-2. However, they are coming off an overtime loss, and the revenge factor will come into play. The Wizards are coming off close a win over New Jersey. Close wins over New Jersey are dangerous for a team because it might give them the false impression that they are on the right track. I like Milwaukee, who is coming off an overtime loss, to take its anger out on the Wizards at home.
Estimated spread: Milwaukee -9 to -12.
Timberwolves @ Mavericks
I have been wrong so many times in a row on the Mavs because I keep picking against them. I think the Mavs will keep beating teams at the end of the game until they become overconfident.
Estimate spread: Mavs -5 to -8.
Kings @ Rockets
Both teams are coming off close losses, but the Kings have an opportunity to prove something by beating Houston. I really think the Kings can beat the Rockets by being bigger and stronger than they are. I also think they are more mentally tough.
Estimated spread: Kings -2 to -4.
Thunder @ Nuggets
Wow! This one snuck up on me. Great game, I hope I can catch the end (I have a rehearsal tonight). I think the Thunder, much like the Cavs, have the potential to be overrated because of their consistency. Against the Raptors, the coach of the Thunder screamed at their players for cutting the lead to 9. A lot of coaches would consider this a safe lead and blow it. The Thunder are much more consistent in beating teams that they should beat, which gives them a good regular season record. Denver is much more likely to just not show up to random meaningless games, but this isn’t the type of game where that would happen. Here’s my bold prediction: Vegas will set the line at -6, and the sharps will POUND the Thunder. I actually like Denver to win by a few points.
Estimated line: Denver -5 to -7.5.
Pacers @ Trailblazers
The Pacers, who are out of the playoff race, just got pounded by the Lakers. Now they have to play the Blazers, who are playing like it matters. I don’t think the Pacers will have everything figured out in one day.
Estimated line: Blazers -7 to -12
Suns @ Clippers
Phoenix just beat Denver, and now they travel to play LAC. LAC just beat Utah, and that win will given them hope to beat a team they just lost badly to. They are at home and rejuvenated. I think the Suns are a better team than the Clippers and they will win, but the Clippers will show up.
Estimated line: Suns -3 to -8.5
