I just wanted to share this trend I spotted...

Wilforth · 03-02-10, 01:04 AM

Wow! Here comes money. Thanks for the info.

lunchbawks · 03-02-10, 01:04 AM

prove it.

this is a meaningless statement

nolaswede · 03-02-10, 01:05 AM

interesting..

Cheese1976 · 03-02-10, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

prove it. this is a meaningless statement

Can't figure out how to paste excel in here

tealish · 03-02-10, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

prove it.

this is a meaningless statement

Whoa, don't need to be so overly nice and decent with that request. I mean, f*ck, it's not like you're NOT entitled to his excel spreasheet!

No coincidences · 03-02-10, 01:37 AM

I, for one, won't test that theory on Tuesday. I think the Lakers and Thunder can easily cover.

Cheese1976 · 03-02-10, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

prove it. this is a meaningless statement

Can only attach spreadsheet in new thread...just posted it

kingsr · 03-02-10, 01:45 AM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

prove it. this is a meaningless statement

Idiot with a capital I

Gopi-1 · 03-02-10, 02:31 AM

Here's an article 6 days ago that will backed up your trend:

Lesson 1: Stay away from double-digit home favorites.

While the NBA has become more of a league of the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ in recent years, particularly with the upcoming collective bargaining situation and the economic turmoil of the past three years, these are still teams of highly skilled professionals and any team can beat any other team. If you are a fan in New Jersey, Oakland, or Minnesota you may not feel that way but the ugly underdogs have still proven to be very profitable this year as it has been in most NBA seasons.
NBA home favorites of ten or more sit at 44-71-2, which would be nearly 62 percent winners if you blindly played double-digit road underdogs this season. The most profitable numbers are those dogs priced between +11.5 and +13, going 35-12-1, or just shy of 75%. Oddly home favorites closing at -13.5 are 4-0 this season, so as you can see that this sample size really is not large enough to produce conclusive data but the numbers are compelling enough that you should make sure that a lot of factors are in your favor before considering laying double-digits in the NBA.
This trend is pretty typical in the NBA, although a bit stronger this season, as many bettors blindly will play against some of the worst teams in the league and play on some of the best teams in the league, so heavy favorites are often shaded with even higher numbers. It certainly takes some courage to bet some of the worst teams in the league on the road but playing games with value on your side is generally a good strategy.

Foals · 03-02-10, 02:39 AM

I've also been seeing this trend too. Might check it out tomorrow as there are two dd dogs.

Wilforth · 03-02-10, 02:51 AM

Good article. That trend will be even more profitable down the stretch as playoff-bound teams want to stay healthy for the playoffs.

SaffaCappa · 03-02-10, 05:49 AM

Good read, will see if it has any merit tonight. I think GSW covers with ease ...

Gopi-1 · 03-02-10, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Good article. That trend will be even more profitable down the stretch as playoff-bound teams want to stay healthy for the playoffs.

This trend will be put to the test tonight. We only have 4 games for today, and
there's 3 dd road dogs. Will the dogs bark tonight? Or will they tuck their tails?

Sawsi · 03-02-10, 12:24 PM

I will have to give this a go tonight.

HenPrivilege · 03-02-10, 12:24 PM

Interesting trend. If you play the 3 DD dogs right now, you're going to get a bad number. I can see a possible 2-1, but you're going to need all the help you can get and losing a half point or point isn't helping.

SpreadSniper · 03-02-10, 12:31 PM

how have dd dogs done in the last 10?

TGoat · 03-02-10, 04:25 PM

I've posted this before, but I couldn't find the thread. I've attached a screenshot of how 10+ point road dogs have done for the last 15 years.

Attached Files

freeVICK · 03-02-10, 04:36 PM

not good i guess. this year is crazy. maybe we should start fading it

frankbettor · 03-02-10, 04:49 PM

Sample size is too small to be relevant. Playing this system alone will lose you money 2 out of every three years.

knightof7 · 03-02-10, 05:14 PM

I guess the number in the first post is ATS and not SU?

lakerboy · 03-02-10, 05:20 PM

Thanks for the info- i bet 1 out of 3 big faves cover tonight . The only one we cant trust is LA for sure.

regretz · 03-02-10, 05:23 PM

Lakers at home giving DD, you know what to do...

jayc88 · 03-02-10, 05:24 PM

what kind of numbers are you using for your excel spreadsheet?
Opening or closing numbers ?

THEGREAT30 · 03-02-10, 05:30 PM

Not bad trend to look at, GSW tonite, good day

Gopi-1 · 03-03-10, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by Gopi-1

This trend will be put to the test tonight. We only have 4 games for today, and
there's 3 dd road dogs. Will the dogs bark tonight? Or will they tuck their tails?

The dogs barked hard last night, going 2-1 for an impressive 66.6% clip, just like what the trend said. We shall see how they'll do for tonight. We could possibly see 5 or 6 dd road dogs tonight.

It's still too early and lines will definitely move all day, but we already got 3 dd dogs for tonight, and probably 2 more to come by game time. They are the Warriors (+14.5) against the Magic, the Wizards (+10) against the Bucks, and the Wolves (+13.5) against the Mavs. The 2 possible road dogs that could end up being dd road dogs as well are the 76ers (+9) against the Hawks, and the Pacers (+9.5) against the Blazers. The Kings/Rockets lines are not yet out, but there's also a possibility of the Kings playing as a dd road dogs as well...