I know my 50% ATS record doesn't reflect that I swept last night, but I guess it does make up for some early week shenanigans. None the less today is a day to be careful and invest properly. Yesterday Vegas took quite the hit. 92% of all major public bets won, that is a lot of payout guys. Cle, Milwaukee, Denver, Den/GS Over....Anyway here are the premiums for Friday.
Dallas @ Atlanta - Dallas Moneyline +130
When I started looking at today's cards I, like the most of the bettors who glanced at the card thought two things initially: I thought "holy ball sack, Portland @ Chicago!" and then I saw this game, the Dallas Atlanta game. It is honestly my opinion that one of these plays are moneyline plays, but I think the team that really understands the importance of the next game is Dallas. Not only are they seasoned veterans (unlike your young Portland team) they've also made some adjustments. Dallas really had some problems towards the end of the first half of this season, but it really looks like they've turned things around, especially after winning in LA. They also lost their last time in Atlanta, and I think the Mavs recognize how important it is to take this game. Dallas is 24-34, far less impressive than Atlanta is Against the spread, but I feel that with Dallas's new improvements they added a good defensive dimension to their game, this seems like it would cancel out Atlanta's offensive problems. I see Dallas winning this one.
Also, as a side note I'd say that Portland is on their third road game of a five game trip. Both first games played were against weak teams, teams Chicago is better than, including a back to back game on Tues/Wed. Portland is young, but also inconsistent at times. I'd be careful.
Orlando @ New Orleans - Orlando -4.5
New Orleans is a team that does well against smaller teams, I remember taking them over Houston this last weekend, which undoubtedly was a good pick, none the less I don't see them getting over their issues with bigger defensive teams. New Orleans has had some problems getting into the paint. With no defense, no Chris Paul, and only relying on Collison and Marcus Thornton to outscore a Orlando team that is infamous for the three pointer this looks like a massacre waiting to happen. In Addition Orlando is on their high horse, playing well and rested up, so if this game is a set up I'm sold because this one looks money all day. Okafor won't be able to guard Howard, and Vince Carter (Who has done historically well against New Orleans) will run circles on Peterson. In order for New Orleans to win they'll have to play full pressure defense... all game with no veteran point guard? get out of here....
Utah @ Sacramento - Utah -7
Utah on the road is a little scary, their home record is amazing, but for some reason when they get out on the road they are just up and down. Good thing they were relaxing yesterday, because I'm sure they were watching that Denver game in their hotel suits. I really don't think they'll pass this chance up to beat a weak team in which they already owned, not to mention has no solid center, even though I think Spencer is questionable and may play I think the moral of Sacramento has been way down as well... I just really don't see this one happening for the Kings. I think it'll be up and down, and yeah they'll stay close by, but in the late third Utah will shut Sacramento down. I usually don't bet anything other than four point responsibility, but I see Utah by ten plus in this one...
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Okay those are my premiums. Here's the rest of the day In order of confidence.
Dallas @ Atlanta - Dallas Moneyline +130
When I started looking at today's cards I, like the most of the bettors who glanced at the card thought two things initially: I thought "holy ball sack, Portland @ Chicago!" and then I saw this game, the Dallas Atlanta game. It is honestly my opinion that one of these plays are moneyline plays, but I think the team that really understands the importance of the next game is Dallas. Not only are they seasoned veterans (unlike your young Portland team) they've also made some adjustments. Dallas really had some problems towards the end of the first half of this season, but it really looks like they've turned things around, especially after winning in LA. They also lost their last time in Atlanta, and I think the Mavs recognize how important it is to take this game. Dallas is 24-34, far less impressive than Atlanta is Against the spread, but I feel that with Dallas's new improvements they added a good defensive dimension to their game, this seems like it would cancel out Atlanta's offensive problems. I see Dallas winning this one.
Also, as a side note I'd say that Portland is on their third road game of a five game trip. Both first games played were against weak teams, teams Chicago is better than, including a back to back game on Tues/Wed. Portland is young, but also inconsistent at times. I'd be careful.
Orlando @ New Orleans - Orlando -4.5
New Orleans is a team that does well against smaller teams, I remember taking them over Houston this last weekend, which undoubtedly was a good pick, none the less I don't see them getting over their issues with bigger defensive teams. New Orleans has had some problems getting into the paint. With no defense, no Chris Paul, and only relying on Collison and Marcus Thornton to outscore a Orlando team that is infamous for the three pointer this looks like a massacre waiting to happen. In Addition Orlando is on their high horse, playing well and rested up, so if this game is a set up I'm sold because this one looks money all day. Okafor won't be able to guard Howard, and Vince Carter (Who has done historically well against New Orleans) will run circles on Peterson. In order for New Orleans to win they'll have to play full pressure defense... all game with no veteran point guard? get out of here....
Utah @ Sacramento - Utah -7
Utah on the road is a little scary, their home record is amazing, but for some reason when they get out on the road they are just up and down. Good thing they were relaxing yesterday, because I'm sure they were watching that Denver game in their hotel suits. I really don't think they'll pass this chance up to beat a weak team in which they already owned, not to mention has no solid center, even though I think Spencer is questionable and may play I think the moral of Sacramento has been way down as well... I just really don't see this one happening for the Kings. I think it'll be up and down, and yeah they'll stay close by, but in the late third Utah will shut Sacramento down. I usually don't bet anything other than four point responsibility, but I see Utah by ten plus in this one...
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Okay those are my premiums. Here's the rest of the day In order of confidence.
- Dallas @ Atlanta - Dallas +130
- Orlando @ New Orleans - Orlando -4.5
- Utah @ Sacramento - Utah -7
- Minnesota @ Oklahoma City - OKC -9.5
- Philadelphia @ LA Lakers - Philadelphia +11
- Detroit @ Denver - Detroit +10
- Charlotte @ Memphis - Memphis -3.5
- NY @ Washington - Washington -2
- Cleveland @ Toronto - Cleveland -5
- San Antonio @ Houston - San Antonio -3.5
- Portland @ Chicago - Chicago -3
- LA Clippers @ Phoenix - Phoenix -9.5
