N.O. Hornets +6.5 @ Milwaukee tonight *2 units*
The NBA, just like sports betting, is a streaky thing. However, it's just like a stock. You can have $10,000 in a stock, the stock can plunge, but you haven't lost your money until you decide to sell the stock. This is because, the stock can rebound, as long as the company didn't go under. Just as the saying in poker goes, "a chip and a chair". The good thing is, these things go in streaks. You can win 8 straight picks, but be ready for a small slide. However, I'll just say this, there is no better time to jump on a bandwagon, than when the stock is low. So, let's get to my pick tonight. I have watched a lot of Bucks games this season, and I love this pick for tonight.
New Orleans invades Milwaukee tonight to take on the Bucks. As usual, let's see what Sagarin has to say. This is a unique situation tonight, as we have the chance to GET points, on a team that is actually ranked higher in the Sagarin rankings. This has proved quite profitable for me this year, so that is already a bonus. On top of that, we aren't just getting "some" points...we are getting 6 points. Okay okay, so the difference is only 1 spot in the rankings, but again, we aren't getting 2 or 3 points, we are getting 6. Yes, Chris Paul is gone, but that doesn't expain the gritty performances of late from the Hornets even without their fearless leader. I'll get to that in a minute though. Regarding the Sagarin ratings, we first look at records against the top 10 in the NBA for each team. There is a huge advantage for the Hornets here, as they are 7-12...while the Bucks currently check in at 2-13. Not surprisingly then, the Hornets also have a considerably better record against the top 16 in the league. The Hornets are 12-19, while the Bucks are 9-20. So, how is it that the Bucks are then 27-28 on the season? You guessed it, they feed on teams in the lower half of the league. If they are 9-20 against teams in the top 16, that means they are 18-8 against teams in the lower half of the league. I don't consider the Hornets part of the "lower half" of the league, I'd say they are middle of the road. They are certainly top 20, so we have that going for us tonight. As you can see, the Hornets are clearly a better team against better opposition. This is also obvious when you consider the teams strength of schedule ratings. The Hornets are 18th in that category, while the Bucks are 28th. This helps them in that, even without Chris Paul, they still are a team that has played better competition than the Bucks.
So, what's left? Well, injuries and recent performances. Injuries are interesting, while Chris Paul is also gone, the addition of John Salmons for the Bucks will prove to be quite important. The Bucks have played good basketball since his addition, and this should continue. However, we aren't asking the Hornets to go into Milwaukee tonight and win a "pick em" game...we just need them to stay within 6 points. If their recent performances are any indicator, this shouldn't be a problem. The Hornets did lose last night at Cleveland by 10 points, but it was a close game for 3 quarters. I don't think they will be burnt out, especially because they lost the game. They should be mentally motivated to put a good performance out there, and after playing the Cavs, this Bucks team won't look too tough. The Hornets have recently won 2 of 3, while the Bucks have won 4 of 5. However, when you take a closer look, there are indicators this isn't what it seems. 2 of the last 3 victories for New Orleans have come against Houston and Boston, while the Bucks victories have been against the likes of the Knicks, Nets, Pistons, and Charlotte....while they just got beat down by the Rockets in Milwaukee a week ago. It must also not be overlooked that the Hornets own the Bucks, as they've beaten them 8 straight times...they have the formula, and they'll get after it tonight.
Overall, the Bucks are a team on the rise, Jennings, Salmons, Bogut...and they finally have a decent chance to put together a playoff worthy team. I don't question at all that they'll make the playoffs...but I expect this game tonight to go a lot like the game last night. Except that, while the Bucks may come back in the 4th quarter, they won't be winning this game by more than 4 points. I'm going 2 units on this one, and I think the Hornets will challenge the Bucks on the ML for this game. Best of luck tonight.
My Pick: Hornets +6.5 (buy the hook!!) @ Milwaukee tonight! *2 units*
New Orleans invades Milwaukee tonight to take on the Bucks. As usual, let's see what Sagarin has to say. This is a unique situation tonight, as we have the chance to GET points, on a team that is actually ranked higher in the Sagarin rankings. This has proved quite profitable for me this year, so that is already a bonus. On top of that, we aren't just getting "some" points...we are getting 6 points. Okay okay, so the difference is only 1 spot in the rankings, but again, we aren't getting 2 or 3 points, we are getting 6. Yes, Chris Paul is gone, but that doesn't expain the gritty performances of late from the Hornets even without their fearless leader. I'll get to that in a minute though. Regarding the Sagarin ratings, we first look at records against the top 10 in the NBA for each team. There is a huge advantage for the Hornets here, as they are 7-12...while the Bucks currently check in at 2-13. Not surprisingly then, the Hornets also have a considerably better record against the top 16 in the league. The Hornets are 12-19, while the Bucks are 9-20. So, how is it that the Bucks are then 27-28 on the season? You guessed it, they feed on teams in the lower half of the league. If they are 9-20 against teams in the top 16, that means they are 18-8 against teams in the lower half of the league. I don't consider the Hornets part of the "lower half" of the league, I'd say they are middle of the road. They are certainly top 20, so we have that going for us tonight. As you can see, the Hornets are clearly a better team against better opposition. This is also obvious when you consider the teams strength of schedule ratings. The Hornets are 18th in that category, while the Bucks are 28th. This helps them in that, even without Chris Paul, they still are a team that has played better competition than the Bucks.
So, what's left? Well, injuries and recent performances. Injuries are interesting, while Chris Paul is also gone, the addition of John Salmons for the Bucks will prove to be quite important. The Bucks have played good basketball since his addition, and this should continue. However, we aren't asking the Hornets to go into Milwaukee tonight and win a "pick em" game...we just need them to stay within 6 points. If their recent performances are any indicator, this shouldn't be a problem. The Hornets did lose last night at Cleveland by 10 points, but it was a close game for 3 quarters. I don't think they will be burnt out, especially because they lost the game. They should be mentally motivated to put a good performance out there, and after playing the Cavs, this Bucks team won't look too tough. The Hornets have recently won 2 of 3, while the Bucks have won 4 of 5. However, when you take a closer look, there are indicators this isn't what it seems. 2 of the last 3 victories for New Orleans have come against Houston and Boston, while the Bucks victories have been against the likes of the Knicks, Nets, Pistons, and Charlotte....while they just got beat down by the Rockets in Milwaukee a week ago. It must also not be overlooked that the Hornets own the Bucks, as they've beaten them 8 straight times...they have the formula, and they'll get after it tonight.
Overall, the Bucks are a team on the rise, Jennings, Salmons, Bogut...and they finally have a decent chance to put together a playoff worthy team. I don't question at all that they'll make the playoffs...but I expect this game tonight to go a lot like the game last night. Except that, while the Bucks may come back in the 4th quarter, they won't be winning this game by more than 4 points. I'm going 2 units on this one, and I think the Hornets will challenge the Bucks on the ML for this game. Best of luck tonight.
My Pick: Hornets +6.5 (buy the hook!!) @ Milwaukee tonight! *2 units*
Good Luck with your wagers tonite sir.
