Trying a system I've been working on that comes up with the totals. I wouldnt recommend anyone tailing. Unproven just an experiment FOR NOW. I'll post the number total I come up with then see what Vegas has and go from there. I was hoping some of you could help notice trends I may not catch and things such as that.
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Good luck ... Hope you land a rare winning systemComment -
i've got a better idea, bet against the Nets..Comment -
February 16th
Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat OVER
Mine:195
Vegas: 190
Charlotte Bobcat/New Jersey Nets OVER
Mine: 194
Vegas:187Detroit Pistons/Minnesota TimberwolvesNO PLAY
Mine:198
Vegas:198.5Chicago Bulls/New York KnicksNO PLAY
Mine:198
Vegas:198Oklahoma City Thunder/Dallas MavericksOVER
Mine:199
Vegas:195Memphis Grizzlies/Phoenix SunsUNDER
Mine:210
Vegas:221
Houston Rockets/Utah JazzUNDER
Mine:199
Vegas:203Portland Trail Blazers/Los Angeles ClippersOVER
Mine:196
Vegas:193Sacramento Kings/Boston CelticsOVER
Mine:202
Vegas:199Los Angeles Lakers/GoldenState WarriorsUNDER
Mine:208
Vegas:218
*First number is mine second is Vegas*Comment -
5-3, very nice if you limit your picks too the games that have a 5 pt difference between your score and the vegas score you'd be 3-0Comment -
For now though Im playing all possible plays to see the trends and help figure stronger better plays. Hopefully be able to adjust the weak points in it.Comment -
February 17th
Indiana Pacers/San Antonio Spurs UNDER
Mine:200
Vegas:204
Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons OVER
Mine:194
Vegas:190
Washington Wizards/Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER
Mine:204
Vegas: 207
Toronto Raptors/Memphis Grizzlies UNDER
Mine: 207
Vegas:219
New Jersey Nets/Miami Heat OVER
Mine: 192
Vegas: 187
New York Knicks/Chicago Bulls NO PLAY
Mine: 200
Vegas: 200.5
New Orleans Hornets/Utah Jazz UNDER
Mine: 198
Vegas: 202
Milwaukee Bucks/Houston Rockets OVER
Mine: 197
Vegas: 194.5
Dallas Mavericks/Phoenix Suns UNDER
Mine: 208
Vegas: 216
GoldenState Warriors/Sacramento Kings UNDER
Mine: 213
Vegas:223.5
Los Angeles Clippers/Atlanta Hawks UNDER
Mine: 194
Vegas: 196.5Comment -
Very good chaz !!!Comment -
Interesting System as I was using this system (I kind of figured it out once I looked at your numbers coinciding w/ data collerated from SBR) however lines have been co-related accordingly. Ive used a modified model that can add variables to the model with higher sample rates. Bustabook's model is probably a better example. But good job on doing what your doing.Comment -
What variables are you using in your system? Things like B2B? Injuries? Rating system?
Do you have a thread with your plays posted?
Also, do you think the plays that are greater then 5 do well because they are lines inflated by Vegas or lucky hits?Comment -
February 18th
Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets UNDER
Mine:201
Vegas: 206
Los Angeles Lakers/Boston Celtics OVER
Mine:197
Vegas:189Comment -
Looks very interesting...just subscribed to your thread. Any description of your system?Comment -
My variables are B2B games, Injuries, Power Ranking Ratings, Rookie Ranking Ratings, Away ATS, Home ATS, current form, Line Movement, Correction Adjustments. At the moment im starting out and learning so I dont want to just start my own thread till i show others im a proven capper. That takes time and I want to earn my respect rather then be some guy who just comes out here talking trash. I alsoComment -
Nice first two days. GL tonightComment -
Was on the under of the Cavs already, but decided to tail you for a small amount on the over of the Celts. BOL!Comment -
Bad night. Overtime slaughtered my under for the Denver/Cleveland game. Then the Lakers made ONLY ONE shot in the last 7 minutes. They both combined for 28 points total in the 4 quarter. Tough day O well on to the next.
Sorry whatsgood5...
LAST NIGHTS RECORD 0-2
OVERALL: 11-8-1Comment -
Cavs/Nugs hit 212 before OT, but you right OT helped out to really slaughter it!Comment -
FEBRUARY 19th
Philadelphia 76ers/San Antonio Spurs OVER
Mine: 195
Vegas: 192.5
Washington Wizards/Denver Nuggets UNDER
Mine: 206
Vegas: 208.5
Charlotte Bobcats/Cleveland Cavaliers OVER
Mine: 194
Vegas: 191.5
New Orleans Hornets/Indiana Pacers UNDER
Mine: 202
Vegas: 206
Detroit Pistons/Milwaukee Bucks OVER
Mine: 191
Vegas: 189.5
Minnesota Timberwolves/Chicago Bulls UNDER
Mine: 200
Vegas: 205.5
New Jersey Nets/Toronto Raptors OVER
Mine: 200
Vegas: 198
Orlando Magic/Dallas Mavericks UNDER
Mine: 199
Vegas: 204
Memphis Grizzlies/Miami Heat OVER
Mine: 198
Vegas: 189
Phoenix Suns/Atlanta Hawks UNDER
Mine: 206
Vegas: 213
GoldenState Warriors/Utah Jazz UNDER
Mine: 208
Vegas: 220.5
Portland Trail Blazers/Boston Celtics OVER
Mine: 192
Vegas: 186.5Comment -
Again guys everything is still in the testing stages so tread lightly if you decide to play these plays.
My lines compared to Vegas' lines on certain teams seem to be off. Miami, Memphis, Golden State, Phoenix, maybe Bostons. Its still very early stages in everything but just something I noticed.Comment -
NiceComment -
nothing for today yetComment -
system plays today?Comment -
Went 7-5 last night. Alright. I'm thinking because of the AllStar break some of my stats are alittle skewed since some teams are healthier now. Also, take in mind some teams are adjusting with the trades. So hopefully as time goes on the lines start to come about better/closer.Comment -
I'm leaving to go out of town so tomorrow plays won't get posted. Here are tonights though. Goodluck to us!!
February 20th
Toronto Raptors/Washington Wizards UNDER
Mine:204
Vegas: 207 to 206
New York Knicks/Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER
Mine: 200
Vegas:202 jumped to 206
Chicago/Philadelphia UNDER
Mine: 196
Vegas:193 jumped to 197
Dallas Mavericks/Miami Heat OVER
Mine: 196
Vegas: 184.5
Houston Rockets/Indiana Pacers UNDER
Mine: 201
Vegas: 205 jumped to 208.5
Milwaukee Bucks/Charlotte Bobcats OVER
Mine: 195
Vegas: 188.5
Los Angeles Clippers/Sacramento Kings UNDER
Mine: 200
Vegas: 202Comment -
I have yet to win with Miami and Boston.Comment -
GL Chaz!Comment -
2-5 last night what a disappointment. I'm gonna take fews days off and try make a few tweaks.Comment -
Back at it again! Good luck to me
February 23th
Cleveland Cavaliers/New Orleans Hornets OVER
Mine: 203
Vegas: 199
Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
Mine: 195
Vegas: 192
Boston Celtics/New York Knicks NO PLAY
Mine: 196
Vegas: 197
New Jersey Nets/Portland Trail blazers NO PLAY
Mine: 187
Vegas: 184
Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
Mine: 195
Vegas: 198
Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns NO PLAY
Mine: 202
Vegas: 204
Sacramento Kings/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
Mine: 197
Vegas: 196
Golden State Warriors/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
Mine: 210
Vegas: 216Comment -
Well Done...Back at it again! Good luck to me
February 23th
Cleveland Cavaliers/New Orleans Hornets OVER
Mine: 203
Vegas: 199
Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
Mine: 195
Vegas: 192
Boston Celtics/New York Knicks NO PLAY
Mine: 196
Vegas: 197
New Jersey Nets/Portland Trail blazers NO PLAY
Mine: 187
Vegas: 184
Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
Mine: 195
Vegas: 198
Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns NO PLAY
Mine: 202
Vegas: 204
Sacramento Kings/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
Mine: 197
Vegas: 196
Golden State Warriors/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
Mine: 210
Vegas: 216Comment -
Back at it again! Good luck to me
February 23th
Cleveland Cavaliers/New Orleans Hornets OVER
Mine: 203
Vegas: 199
Actual: 200
Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
Mine: 195
Vegas: 192
Actual: 179
Boston Celtics/New York Knicks NO PLAY
Mine: 196
Vegas: 197
Actual: 216
New Jersey Nets/Portland Trail blazers NO PLAY
Mine: 187
Vegas: 184
Actual: 195
Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
Mine: 195
Vegas: 198
Actual: 197
Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns NO PLAY
Mine: 202
Vegas: 204
Actual: 206
Sacramento Kings/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
Mine: 197
Vegas: 196
Actual: 190
Golden State Warriors/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
Mine: 210
Vegas: 216
Actual: 212
2-0 last night
I'll post tonights picks alittle later.Comment -
February 24th
Atlanta Hawks/Minnesota Timberwolves NO PLAY
Mine: 202
Vegas: 203
Washington Wizards/Memphis Grizzlies NO PLAY
Mine: 200
Vegas: 199
Toronto Raptors/Portland Trail Blazers OVER
Mine: 201
Vegas: 198
Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers UNDER
Mine: 202
Vegas: 205
Milwaukee Bucks/New Orleans Hornets NO PLAY
Mine: 195
Vegas: 194
Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic UNDER
Mine: 200
Vegas: 205
San Antonio Spurs/Oklahoma City Thunder OVER
Mine: 197
Vegas: 194
Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Lakers NO PLAY
Mine: 194
Vegas: 195
Phoenix Suns/Philadelphia 76ers UNDER
Mine: 205
Vegas: 210
Utah Jazz/Charlotte Bobcats NO PLAY
Mine: 194
Vegas: 193
Los Angeles Clippers/Detroit Pistons NO PLAY
Mine: 192
Vegas: 190Comment -
Totals are too hard to win at in the long runComment
