Rooks vs. Sophs ** Let's cap this crapshoot!!

[hels]

Obviously there is no easy way to cap games like these but that's why I hope everyone can say their piece and we might come to some sort of consensus.

Here's the rosters:
For the Rooks
DeJuan Blair: San Antonio F-C 6-7 265 Pittsburgh
Omri Casspi: Sacramento F 6-9 225 Yavne, Israel
Stephen Curry: Golden State G 6-3 185 Davidson
Tyreke Evans: Sacramento G 6-6 220 Memphis
Jonny Flynn: Minnesota G 6-0 185 Syracuse
Taj Gibson: Chicago F 6-9 225 USC
James Harden: Oklahoma City G 6-5 220 Arizona State
Brandon Jennings: Milwaukee G 6-1 169 Italy
Jonas Jerebko: Detroit F 6-10 231 Kinna, Sweden

and the Sophs:
Michael Beasley: Miami F 6-9 245 Kansas St.
Marc Gasol: Memphis C 7-1 265 Barcelona, Spain
Danilo Gallinari: New York G-F 6-10 225 Italy
Eric Gordon: L.A. Clippers G 6-3 222 Indiana
Brook Lopez: New Jersey C 7-0 260 Stanford
Kevin Love: Minnesota F-C 6-10 260 UCLA
O.J. Mayo: Memphis G 6-4 210 USC
Derrick Rose: Chicago G 6-3 190 Memphis
Russell Westbrook: Oklahoma City G 6-3 187 UCLA

Obviously the Sophmores have the superior roster and should completely dominate the first years. Looking at the matchups the Sophs have a definite advantage in size and will control the boards wtih Lopez and Gasol inside. Of course the game will be played with more run n gun but I don't think the game will be as high flying as some might expect.

PREVIOUS NBA ROOKIE CHALLENGE WINNERS

1994 - Phenoms 74, Sensations 68
1995 - White 83, Green 79 (OT)
1996 - East 94, West 92
1997 - East 96, West 91
1998 - East 85, West 80
2000 - Rookies 92, Sophomores 81 (OT)
2001 - Sophomores 121, Rookies 113
2002 - Rookies 103, Sophomores 97
2003 - Sophomores 132, Rookies 112
2004 - Sophomores 142, Rookies 118
2005 - Sophomores 133, Rookies 106
2006 - Sophomores 106, Rookies 96
2007 - Sophomores 155, Rookies 114
2008 - Sophomores 136, Rookies 109
2009 - Sophomores 122, Rookies 116

The OU at 245.5 is definitely right where it should be I reckon. However, I expect the majority of public to be on the Over. Remembering that this game is 2 20 minute halves makes a huge impact on the final point total. I want to play the over, as it makes sense 250 points will be scored, but I know that's how everyone is thinking and the bookmakers know this as well. I have no doubt that this game will be Under and will cap that large.

What does everyone think?

[hels]

and thinking of the -12.5 line I do believe the Sophmores will easily cover. In 2009 the Rookies were in it until the final minute where Kevin Durant took control of the game and it finished 122-116. Since the Rooks were that competitive last year the returning players for the now Sophmores is extremely important. 7 Rookies from the 2009 game are now playing for Sophmores in 2010:

Beasley
Gasol
Gordon
Lopez
Mayo
Rose
Westbrook

So, having these 7 players already having played last year and being extremely competitive against the then Sophmores is a huge factor to this game. Only Gallinari and Love didn't play last year. I think this team will take control early and hold onto the game easily. My predictions for
first half: Rooks 52 68 Sophs
final: Rooks 101 128 Sophs

[Durrrr]

The SOPHOMORES completely out class the Rookies imo. I for one shall be betting -12.5 big.

[Quagmire27]

Remembering that this game is 2 20 minute halves makes a huge impact on the final point total.

Nice to see not everybody slept on that, alot will need to go right to get 245 points in 40 minutes. Tough to reach even with very little defense.

[hels]

Nice to see not everybody slept on that, alot will need to go right to get 245 points in 40 minutes. Tough to reach even with very little defense.

definitely agree with you. The game will need to average over 6 points per minute to reach this total. Yes there will be some minutes where 10 points are scored but of course there will be others when only 2 are scored. If either team decides to play any defence at all, there is no way the game will go over.

[Durrrr]

Yes, betting on under here too.

[HoulihansTX]

Nice to see not everybody slept on that, alot will need to go right to get 245 points in 40 minutes. Tough to reach even with very little defense.

The problem wont be scoring, but who will be doing the scoring. will it be 2pts at a time, or 3PTs at a time. I see many shooters on both rosters, add the fact Anthony Morrow is playing for Rose. I placed a 245 OV bet when I equated all those factors.

Also I think Anthony Morrow will be the MVP.

[tealish]

I think it's a little silly to bet anymore than a small play on anything "All-star". But hey, if you can afford it and what to guess whether defense will be played or not, be my guest!

[wookieehumper]

definitely agree with you. The game will need to average over 6 points per minute to reach this total. Yes there will be some minutes where 10 points are scored but of course there will be others when only 2 are scored. If either team decides to play any defence at all, there is no way the game will go over.

I like your guys' logic... I'm going with the under as well after reading this

[bradleysnyder]

guaranteed sophs -12.5

[flyingillini]

I am on the Rookies and the Under, May Jesus Christ Bless this play.

[ROYAJA8]

The Sophmores will kill by at least 20 points I say

[revisisland]

Yup Sophmores (-12)

[chrislau86]

Line is dropping hard. Rookies moneyline went from +650 to +500, spread now 12, under now 244

[Glitch]

sophs is only a good pick if you think its fixed. anybody see or remember who got to 15 points first? i zoned out then looked up at the tv and it was 17-17

[chrislau86]

Put .5X on Rookies ML (+500) and 1X parlay Rookies +12.5 and Under 245.5

[Jonah]

Forgot how much of a ball hog Oj Mayo is... Beasley terrible 1st ten minutes.

[hedgejob]

What was the u/o set at?

[camel]

What was the u/o set at?

last i saw it, it was 245.

[camel]

rookies doing well....

[Glitch]

yeah 2-fortysomething....like 243ish. i wasnt messing with that at all. man i hope +700 is good tonight- that always helps.

[Glitch]

this is a really really talented rookie class but imagine if hansborough panned out and blake griffin was healthy. it would probably be rookies +125

[chrislau86]

lol the under will be close. 122 points in the 1st half

[Jonah]

Shout out to Beasely, Mayo an Morrow for finding ways to absolutely destroy easy scoring opps and shout out to the Durant and The Euros( Caspi and Jennings included) taking this game a little too seriously

[Boscoe]

holy sh*t.... nba.com mixes up the pictures on the voting for the dunk play-in. i believe this is known on the world wide web as a "fail"

[Powderguy]

HAHA i saw that too Boscoe. At least Derozan won.

[Boscoe]

derozan was my pick to win it all.... i was expecting that lesbo to announce gordon even after his debacle.

[WileOut]

Rose is more like 6-4 and a half. Gordon is 6-3. Rose definitely taller than Gordon.

[Boscoe]

rooks and over.... f*ck

[PickSix]

*puke* That was ugly...

[HoulihansTX]

[Glitch]