Bucks vs Pacers Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 10:08 AM

Bucks vs Pacers Game 1 prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Bucks +5.5 (-108 DraftKings)

"This spread opened at 4.5 points, and despite 61% of bettors backing the Bucks to cover, it has increased to 5.5 points. Usually, this would indicate that oddsmakers like what they’re seeing from the team that the public is fading, and it would be a good idea to go against the public. But I don’t see it on Saturday.

All three of the Bucks' wins over the Pacers were by at least seven points, and the only time the Pacers beat the Bucks was by one in Indianapolis. The Bucks are the hotter team entering the postseason, and they’re better defensively. Maybe my mind will change before Game 2, but for now, the Bucks should be favored in this series."

Under 225.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"At the time of writing, 68% of bettors are backing the Over, which is exactly what oddsmakers want. These two teams are averaging over 115 points per game, and all three of their previous meetings finished with more points than this current total. And yet, the number isn't increasing despite overwhelming support for the Over.

Even though I see the trap, I’m still not incredibly confident in the Under. These are two teams that play very little defense, and both squads have numerous players who can make shots. This fourth quarter could easily feature big shot after big shot, which would send this total easily Over.

Still, the Under is the right play."

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:47 AM

The Pacers dominate Game 1, final score 117-98.

Updated series odds at DraftKings: Pacers -240 / Bucks +195

**SBR Andy** · 04-22-25, 12:26 PM

Bucks vs Pacers Game 2 predictions from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Over 227.5 (-110 DraftKings)

"The ebbs and flows of a typical playoff series would suggest a return to normalcy for the scoring pace after a tighter defensive game in the opener. Prior to Saturday’s game, which totaled only 215 points, the Bucks and Pacers had exceeded this scoring total in all four of their regular-season matchups, with those matchups averaging 238.0 total points per game.

Indiana averages the sixth-most points per home game in the NBA this season (118.3 PPG), and the Pacers also rank 17th in scoring defense. After holding the Bucks below 100 points in Game 1, Indiana figures to see Milwaukee’s best shot as the pace picks up in a more desperate spot for the Bucks in Game 2.

Dating back to the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals, Pacers star Pascal Siakam has logged five straight playoff wins against the Bucks, and kept that streak rolling by matching up effectively against Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 1.

Over bettors should target this wager at DraftKings for the line at 227.5 rather than the 228.5 mark from BetMGM."

Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 points (-105 BetMGM)

"Siakam, who averaged 20.2 points per game on the season, has cleared this scoring line in about half of his contests. He opened the playoffs with a 25-point output against the Bucks in Game 1.

Siakam has had the Bucks’ number in his last five playoff matchups against Milwaukee. He has also posted strong numbers this season when facing the Bucks, reaching 25 or more points in four of the five matchups. Siakam hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points against Milwaukee all year.

The consistency of his scoring against Milwaukee, despite the Bucks’ generally solid defense against opposing power forwards and centers, suggests a particular advantage for Siakam’s ability to regularly defy a strength of Milwaukee’s defense."

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 08:12 AM

The Pacers roll again 123-115 in Game 2, taking a 2-0 lead in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Pacers -450 / Bucks +350

**SBR Andy** · 04-28-25, 09:37 AM

The Pacers dominate Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Pacers -2500 / Bucks +1200

**SBR Andy** · 04-29-25, 09:22 AM

Bucks vs Pacers Game 5 prediction from SBR's Andrew Brennan:

Pacers -7.5 (-112 DraftKings)

"We saw how the Bucks responded to Dame's injury in Game 4, and that was in Milwaukee. Now, back in Indianapolis, why would we expect the result to be any different?

It's not as though Lillard was providing the Bucks with a ton of scoring - he shot the ball poorly in both full games he played - but he did give the team a big boost with his leadership and, as silly as it sounds, his aura. His ability to score for fun forced the Pacers to pay extra defensive attention to at least one other person on the court besides Giannis.

Lillard's absence now puts more pressure not only on the Bucks superstar but also the likes of Gary Trent Jr. and Kyle Kuzma. In Game 4, those two combined for nine points on 3-for-12 shooting.

We can make this much simpler, though, by just acknowledging that the Bucks are cooked. We saw the Miami Heat completely give up on their home court last night after being blown out in Game 3, and I expect a similarly sad performance by Milwaukee tonight.

As far as this game's total, it should be said that the pace slowed down in Game 4 compared to the two contests that Lillard played, more so resembling Game 1. So you could make an argument for the Under being the play. However, after opening around 225, I think this total has dropped too far for a game featuring a hungry Pacers team that will keep its foot on the gas to close things out at home."

**SBR Andy** · 04-29-25, 09:38 AM

Bucks vs Pacers Game 5 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 assists (-110 DraftKings)

"Haliburton is one of the most disrespected players in the modern game, as revealed by a recent NBA player poll, which voted him the most overrated player in the Association. How has Indiana's frontman responded? He's averaged 15.5 points, 12.25 assists, and 6.75 rebounds per game in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

The 25-year-old has been a dominant distributor with his shot creation skills on full display against Milwaukee. Haliburton has cleared the 10.5 assist mark in three of four against the Bucks, only failing to do so in Game 3, when he registered 10 assists.

Our best sports betting apps continue to list the total at 10.5, so we'll keep betting on Haliburton to over-perform in the assists department. The Pacers are averaging a league-leading 31.5 assists per game in the playoffs, almost six more than the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder in second."

Kyle Kuzma Under 9.5 points (-120 BetMGM)

"Has there been a more disappointing acquisition this season than Kuzma? His numbers have fallen off a cliff, specifically in the scoring department, as he dropped from a 20-plus point per game scorer over the last two seasons to just 14.8 PPG this year.

He looked like a solid tertiary scorer for much of his time in Milwaukee, but for one reason or another, he looks like a shell of his former self under the bright lights of the postseason. Kuzma has tallied 24 total points on 33.3% from the field across the four games in the series, highlighted by a zero-point outing in Game 1.

The 29-year-old has eclipsed the 9.5-point mark once in this series. We're not expecting the forward to suddenly find his rhythm as the Bucks stare elimination square in the face. Kuzma's odds imply a 54.55% probability he goes Under, a play we recommend at four-star confidence."

Andrew Nembhard Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+135 DraftKings)

"Nembhard has been one of the standout performers in what's been a commanding series for Indiana thus far. He's averaging 15 points per game while shooting over 53% from the field (64.2% true shooting) and 47% from beyond the arc. All of those averages are far superior to his regular season stats.

The 25-year-old has knocked down eight of 17 shots he's taken from 3-point range. Further, Nembhard has cleared this total at a 50% clip in the series, missing out by one 3-pointer in Game 1. He's worth taking a flyer on in Game 5, especially at the plus-money price offered by our best sportsbooks."

**SBR Andy** · 04-30-25, 08:33 AM

The Pacers close out the series with a 119-118 OT win in Game 5. They will now play the Cavs in the 2nd round.

Updated odds for Indiana to win the NBA Finals via DraftKings: +6500