Value Plays

[million2one]

I'm back with another experiment, I've been unsuccessful thus far with my other threads but I am persistent and will not give up until I find a winning formula.

I think I have a good understanding of where to find value in a line based on the stats. I am just not sure where to go from there.

I come up with my own line each day and them compare to the actual line to find value. 9 out of 10 times I will be playing on the underdog. Where I need help is identifying a good or bad situation for a team and learning to rate my plays.

Every once in a while I see value in a favorite and will make a small play on them.

Best of luck and I appreciate any input.

[million2one]

Value Plays

Pacers (+11.5)
Wizards (+4.5)
Nets (+12.5)
Jazz (+5.5)
Bulls (+3.5)


Undervalued Favorites

Bobcats (-3.5)

[Intangible]

I like those plays. Might want to hold off on bobcats for now as Wallace may be out. Anyone have an update on his status?

[million2one]

Thanks for the info,

I am wondering why Charlotte is not getting any respect at home, they've been killing it.

[mkasad23]

good luck tonight buddy

[mkasad23]

loving the wizards tonight

[million2one]

Keep an eye on this Charlotte team, when they play home at least.
Gotta take a shot on them +7.

Value Plays: 3 - 2

Blazers (+10.5)
Bobcats (+7)

Undervalued Favorites: 1 - 0

Pistons (-3.5)
Wizards (+3) : I feel the wrong team is favored here


Thoughts?

[twentyonekid]

good luck

[Busterflywheel]

Keep an eye on this Charlotte team, when they play home at least.
Gotta take a shot on them +7.

Value Plays: 3 - 2

Blazers (+10.5)
Bobcats (+7)

Undervalued Favorites: 1 - 0

Pistons (-3.5)
Wizards (+3) : I feel the wrong team is favored here


Thoughts?

I like the Portland game...Ive been leaning that way all day..11 buying the hook

BOL

[million2one]

I hate taking favorites, value is always with the dogs, I'll stick to what I know.
I guess I'll be riding Charlotte until they start losing at home.

Value Plays: 4 - 3

Golden St. Warriors (+12)
Ok. City Thunder (+8)
Bobcats (+2)

Undervalued Favorites: 1 - 2

None


Heres to a winning night for all. I think G. State is my favorite play here. Thoughts?

[MadRussian]

good luck

[million2one]

Can't pass this up, I told you my game is all about value.
I hope Memphis doesn't let me don't because I rarely take favorites

Value Plays: 6 - 4

LA Clippers (+11.5)

[Busterflywheel]

I like the Clippers call..On opp sides on Memphis game..BOL none the less...

[million2one]

Thanks Busterfly,

I am actually going to make some changes as I have not placed my bet yet.
I see the Bulls getting 8.5 and I love that value. So I will not be playing Memphis and instead take the Bulls.
In fact from here on out it's all dogs, no more favorites for me.


Value Plays: 6 - 4

LA Clippers (+11.5)
Chicago Bulls (+8.5)

[million2one]

Picked up two more wins last night and coming right back with some more value today on the late game.
Can someone tell me why Sacramento, losers of 7 straight, is a 6.5 point favorite?
I gotta think there is huge value with G. State


Value Plays: 8 - 4

G. State Warriors (+6.5)



I could make a case for Milwaukee as well, but not strong enough to warrant my money

[million2one]

Off to a solid start and running hot right now. How long will it last?
I am seeing some more value out there tonight with two lines in particular.
I can make a case for Golden State (again) and Denver as a dog.
Thoughts??


Value Plays: 9 - 4

G. State Warriors (+2)
Denver Nuggets (+2.5)


Best of luck to all

[merlin1974LP]

Not bad... I wish you the best!

[million2one]

Got the split two nights ago, can't see to much value tonight, except for one line I am liking.


Value Plays: 10 - 5

Portland Trailblazers (+6)

[Busterflywheel]

Off to a solid start and running hot right now. How long will it last?
I am seeing some more value out there tonight with two lines in particular.
I can make a case for Golden State (again) and Denver as a dog.
Thoughts??


Value Plays: 9 - 4

G. State Warriors (+2)
Denver Nuggets (+2.5)


Best of luck to all

Love the G.S call tonight..BOl with your card

[million2one]

Thanks,

I had G.State and Denver two nights ago, tonight I am liking Portland at +6

I do like G.State tonight as well but not enough value for me to lay my money down on.

Best of Luck.

[million2one]

Close one last night, but the value in the line brought home the win.
Two plays for tonight.
Why is Portland line so big after they covered last night? Is this a sucker bet?
Either way can't pass up on the value in that line.


Value Plays: 11 - 5

Portland Trailblazers (+8.5)
New Orleans Hornets (+7)


Best of Luck to all

[xxbadazxx]

Gl to you

[million2one]

Big wins last night, both teams win the game outright.
I missed the early game there was definitely value in the Denver line, but still have a game for later with good value.

Value Plays: 13 - 5

Golden State Warriors (+8.5)


Best of Luck to all

[Quagmire27]

but still have a game for later with good value.

Golden State Warriors (+8.5)

hogwash

imo, your created line was off here, bad situation for the Warriors...

should get to at least 9 by game time, but GL with the rest of your experiment

[million2one]

Thanks Quags,

Your probably right, I am due for a loss.
But I am strictly a numbers guy and calculate certain stats, I don't take situations into account, this is where I need to improve my capping.

Right now I am feeling great about my value system though, doubt I can keep up this percentage, but I'll keep plugging away.

Thanks for the input.

[whatsgood5]

Good luck with the warriors, I went with OKC in that one

[Quagmire27]

Thanks Quags,

Your probably right, I am due for a loss.
But I am strictly a numbers guy and calculate certain stats, I don't take situations into account, this is where I need to improve my capping.

Right now I am feeling great about my value system though, doubt I can keep up this percentage, but I'll keep plugging away.

Thanks for the input.

Think you got that one, nice call either way, they did come to play.

[million2one]

Found some good value tonight with the Bucks, although probably should of had them last night.


Value Plays: 14 - 5

Milwaukee Bucks (+9.5)


Best of Luck to all

[Busterflywheel]

Found some good value tonight with the Bucks, although probably should of had them last night.


Value Plays: 14 - 5

Milwaukee Bucks (+9.5)


Best of Luck to all

I like this and Memphis for the night...BOL

[doublec]

Doing great! Keep it up. Do you consider back-to-back road games in your value picks? That's the only thing worrying me about the Bucks tonight.

[million2one]

Doing great! Keep it up. Do you consider back-to-back road games in your value picks? That's the only thing worrying me about the Bucks tonight.

Thanks for the vote of confidence, and to answer your question No I do not take back to back into account, nor any other situation for that matter. These picks are based solely on numbers and statistics to find value in the line compared to the line I create from the stats.

At some point I am sure I will need to incorporate situational handicapping techniques (B2B, Home and Homes, injuries, motivation, etc)
But for right now it is strictly numbers.

Thanks for the input.

[million2one]

I like Memphis as well Busta, they were close to being a play for me, put Milwaukee is my top pick and worthy of my $$$

BOL

[Gopi-1]

Seems to me your system's working great! Keep up the good work and BOL to your plays!

[million2one]

Took a loss last night so its time to rebound with two solid value picks for tonight.


Value Plays: 14 - 6

Washington Wizards (+5.5)
G.State Warriors (+12)

Best of Luck to all

[whatsgood5]

As a Knicks fan, I really like the Wizards chances of not only covering, but probably winning outright. The Knicks have been playing awful lately. GL with your picks tonight and keep up the good work