Doublec NBA Plays

[doublec]

I'm in the process of building a system similar to those by TGoat and Bustabook (both excellent), although I've incorporated some different factors and do tend find different answers. I will be posting what I feel are my best play or plays when I find them. Feel free to comment, criticize, tail, or fade (likely your best option ). I am new to this and would love to maybe have extra eyes possibly seeing my mistakes and helping me learn and improve. My first play for tomorrow is

GS +5.5

I'd get on this line early as it looks like its already moving from its open at 6. My sims have GS winning this one outright, and I feel they have a pretty decent chance of covering the spread. I might add more plays for tomorrow as lines change.

[doublec]

GS +5.5

(1-0)

Tonight's play is

LAC 1H +5.5

[doublec]

lac 1h +5.5

(2-0)

[Intangible]

Looking good there, keep it up man

[doublec]

Get to really test it out now. 3 plays tonight. I expect to see the Pho and GS lines to really start moving, so if you decide to play, play early!

Pho -6.5
OKC +3.5 (ML looks to be a good value here)
GS -6.5

[philosopher876]

thanks for the play! lets win some cash

[doublec]

Pho -6.5
OKC +3.5
GS -6.5

(4-1)

I think I'm officially done betting on any game the Bulls participate. I am 1-5 on any game in which they play, no matter if I bet against or with them. Ruined a perfectly good 3 teamer, too.

[doublec]

All right, a few strong plays tonight.

Phi +3
Cha -1
OKC 1H +4.5

Would love to include Den -10 and Sac +7 here, but both of these fail one of my "Play" tests so I will hold off. I may add more as late night lines become available. Best of luck to everyone tonight!

[doublec]

Not looking like a good night. Last minute additions include

GS +11.5
Utah -16.5

[doublec]

Caught OT in the Magic-Cats game. GS and Utah are looking good to start. Might not turn out too bad after all...

[doublec]

And the Bobcats fall apart in OT. Still a good chance for a winning night, though.

[doublec]

Phi +3
Cha -1
OKC 1H +4.5
GS +11.5
Utah -16.5

(7-3)

Didn't start great but ended strong for 4 straight positive nights!

[doublec]

Early pick for tomorrow.

Utah -6.5

[doublec]

Also adding

Portland/NO OVER 187

(Decided to remove this play due to the poor performance of totals during backtesting. I like this play on a personal level, but not enough to include.)

Replacing with LAC +6.5 1H

[whatsgood5]

Nice start, Utah looks good for tonight, GL!

[GGPLAYER]

Also adding

Portland/NO OVER 187

(Decided to remove this play due to the poor performance of totals during backtesting. I like this play on a personal level, but not enough to include.)

Replacing with LAC +6.5 1H

Nice call with the Clips in the 1st H. Not sure if they'll be able to hang with Boston for the full 4. Tailing you on your Utah play. Keep doing what your doing.

[doublec]

LAC 6.5 1H

(8-3)

Looks like the Clip are gonna cover the whole thing, but the 1H was the safer bet.

GGPlayer, I understand now why the Suns almost scored 70 in the first half against one of the best home defenses-I have a tailer!

Seriously though, I think Phoenix will slow down. Utah is a hard place for fast-paced teams. I'm not sure they will cover, but I think they pull out the win. Unfortunate. Maybe OT?

[doublec]

Didn't need OT!

Utah -6.5

(9-3)

5 night positive streak!

[TGoat]

Didn't need OT!

Utah -6.5

(9-3)

5 night positive streak!

[ron.angeles]

PICKS FOR TOM BRO :d

[doublec]

Washington +8

No lines for the last two games yet. May include later.

[GGPLAYER]

Glad I was'nt bad luck on the UT bet! I got burned on the Mia game so I had an ok night. I like that you only play a few games a night.

What's the thinking behind your Wash pick?

[doublec]

Excellent! Got the line I was hoping for on the GS/Sac game!

GS +6.5

[doublec]

Glad I was'nt bad luck on the UT bet! I got burned on the Mia game so I had an ok night. I like that you only play a few games a night.

What's the thinking behind your Wash pick?

As i said earlier, I have a system which gives me a basic idea of how the teams should play. In this game, for instance, it has LA winning by 5. I combine that with subjective input such as injuries, recent schedule, and performance vs. expected performance, as well as location to see if I get a pick. Since I require most if not all of these things to be in my favor, I play few games.

In the Wash game, LA is headed into their 4th road game in 6 days, whereas Washington hasn't left their home in quite some time. Artest is likely out, and the Wizards have been playing even better without Arenas. Add that to a huge public favorite in LA and a big home underdog, and I see a pretty solid bet.

Time will tell, however.

[GGPLAYER]

Excellent! Got the line I was hoping for on the GS/Sac game!

GS +6.5

I have had a hard time backing GS and all they do is cover (8-2 ATS in their last 10). I just can't get past all their injuries. If M. Elllis does not play this might be a tough one for GS.

[cecbo]

Without Ellis, GS will be a tough cover at +6.5....maybe +8.5 would be more fitting. Either way, it shouldn't be that close. I'm guessing the game will have Sac with an avg of a 9 point lead and then it could go either way towards the end.

cecbo

[doublec]

I think they will be just fine. I expect Sacramento to get way ahead early, but GS to make a good comeback. Sacramento has been on the road way too long to be terribly fresh, even with the rest. We'll see, I suppose!

[GGPLAYER]

Warriors guard Monta Ellis will not play Tuesday night at Sacramento due to his sprained right ankle, but says he's planning on playing Wednesday against the Hornets.

Ellis was at practice Monday night, didn't participate and is listed as day-to-day. Marcus Thompson also reports that he has been told the Warriors have no interest in trading Ellis. C.J. Watson and Stephen Curry should play well in his absence on Tuesday, but it sounds like he should only miss one game. Jan. 25 - 9:57 pm et
Source: Marcus Thompson on Twitter

[doublec]

Just like I hoped, GS made a 4th quarter comeback to cover. Unfortunately, Washington let me down and ended by positive night streak. Still, pretty pleased with the results so far.

Wash +8
GS +6.5

(10-4)

[doublec]

OKC -5.5
Utah -2
TWolves +13.5
A system play, but just barely. Changed my mind. Not comfortable with it at all.

Replacing with

Lakers -3 1H

[cecbo]

Good call on the GS game last night! Keep up the good work...

cecbo

[doublec]

Thanks cecbo. Really like tonight's card, although it seems like its time for a bad night. I'm not Mexicanstallion, after all.

[doublec]

I think I'm officially done betting on any game the Bulls participate. I am 1-5 on any game in which they play, no matter if I bet against or with them.

This is what happens when you don't follow your own advice. My Chicago curse is alive and kicking.

OKC -5.5
Lakers -3 1H (push)

(10-5-1)

Last minute addition of
GS 1H +1