J.Wei's NBA Picks!

[jwei]

Hey guys. Going to start posting my pics to see how everything goes. I've been capping for the past few months or so and have had success so I'm going to start making it official so we can all get that dough.

Just started an active bankroll yesterday (well Thursday) of ~$65. Now this is all low stakes as I do it for fun and don't want to risk too much, but for you guys out there (i've been lurking this forum for a while) I see that you guys bet hundreds and sometimes thousands so just a heads up that I obviously (like anyone else) don't like to lose and ~$65 to me is still a decent amount of money. Now just for proof (just so I can get a little bit a credibility to start off with), heres my bankroll as stated (it was supposed to be $50 yesterday, but I'll explain after the picture)



LOL I know it shows $50 first and then $100. I accidentally bet the over when I really meant to bet the under and didn't realize before it was too late. So I had to compensate haha. I'll be withdrawing that ASAP.

So basically a starting bankroll $65 I guess? It was supposed to be $50, but as you can see I messed up betting on the over so I had to compensate. So just adding the numbers up I started with a bankroll of $65.

Now yes this is all unofficial until I start posting picks BEFORE the games are won, but I just wanted to have some backup before I actually started.

SO, in summary I'll be restarting my bankroll AGAIN, fresh so everyone can follow/track.

Buying in officially for $65. Lets do it! *Knock on wood for no jinxes to start because I'm posting now*

I'll update this thread hopefully tomorrow afternoonish, as I'm still a little tipsy/tired.

Cheers and BOL to everyone.

[jwei]

Don't like all the B2B games tonight, so I'm going to stay low and just do

Milwaukee Bucks vs Utah Jazz (-8.5) for Game $5
San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies for Game $5 (ML)

[jwei]

Sorry posting from my berry.

Raptors +1, 15 to win 13.88.
Raps vs mavs, over 205, 7 to win 5.88.

Might be a risky bet but definitely worth the payoff. Raps will either blow it out or they get blown out. I like them at home + sunday afternoon over the mavs away + playing earlier than usual. Didn't have full time to look at the matchup analysis so bet minimal. Will post a second play tonight for Jazz vs Nuggets when I get a full chance at home.

1-1 thus far

[jwei]

Finally home and able to analyze thoroughly. Looks like I'm stuck in a 1-1 record.

LETS BREAK IT TONIGHT.

Looking into everything:

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets (-6) Risking $15 for make $13.04.
Utah Jazz/Denver Nuggets (U 213) for $5 to get $4.50.

Denver will win this game tonight FOR SURE by at the VERY least 5 (if you can get it through your bookie do it), 6 was as close as I could get (no point in getting the 5.5).

The O/U I'm giving calculating it 70% to hold true. My estimate for how this game will be played:

First half will stay close with Utah giving it them all and Denver warming it up, by the second half Denver's rest will begin to show (fast breaks alllllllll day) and Utah will slowly start to gas.

Predicting a final score of 106-99.

Record so far (not ashamed despite being stuck at .500~):

2-2
Starting bankroll $65
Loss/Profit of +$5.30.
Totaling my current bankroll to $70.30.

Currently risking: $20 to win $17.54.
Current Bankroll after risk (pending outcome): $52.76.
Closing bankroll tonight: ?!?!?!?!?

BOL.

[jwei]

QUICK LIVE PLAY:

Denver Nuggets 17-January-2010 6:05 PM PST

Spread -6.5 for Game 1.926

Risking 12.00 to Win 11.11 CAD

EDIT: Will update bankroll after the game.

[HoulihansTX]

GL. Profiting around this time in the NBA is difficult if you have not paid attention to the early part of the season..

Hope your bankroll grows.

[jwei]

GL. Profiting around this time in the NBA is difficult if you have not paid attention to the early part of the season..

Hope your bankroll grows.

Thanks! Been watching since tipoff, just playing with a small bankroll before that and just analyzing how teams have been playing (its the worst trying to cap at the beginning of the season as teams can change so much over a summer of rest ). Things look to be settled now though.






Anyhow .....looks like I should stick to my spreads instead of O/U.

Risked tonight:

Pregame:
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets (-6) Risking $15 for make $13.04 WIN
Utah Jazz/Denver Nuggets (U 213) for $5 to get $4.50. LOSS

LIVE:
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets (-6.5) Risking $12 to win $11.11 WIN


Totaling my current bankroll to $89.45.

Record so far:

4-3

Starting bankroll $65
Profit of +$24.45.


BOL. Stay updated for picks tomorrow (if there's anyone even out there tailing...). Llikely to post around 3~, if nothing is posted by 3:30 check back after 5.

Gotta stay on the hunt for a nice perfect night.

[jwei]

1:00 Plays:

Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards (-1) for Game Risking $5 to win $4.95
Portland Trail Blazers/Washington Wizards (U 194) for Game Risking $13 to win $10.48


It will certainly be under 194. So if you're looking to play one of these two definitely play that one, I had a lean on the Wizards and I got a good feeling it will come through. Don't have much time to do a writeup sorry, just follow my betting pattern of doubling up on the under with a kicker on the spread. Why?.... well either way profit will be made for the under (quick summary: portland playing WAY earlier than normal, wizards at home, both team boggled with injuries, and the spread has consistently gone under most of the time), just a matter of whether we can get that double whammy.

Stay tuned for a 3:30+ later bet!

BOL to tailers + faders.

[jwei]

3:30 update:

Philadelphia 76ers (-2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves for Game risking $8.47 to win $7.24.

I have a lean on Spurs +2, but I'm going to lay off it for now. Theres always more games in the future

BOL to everyone.

Probably give an update a little later on, I MIGHT have a play for the evening game(s). Will keep you guys updated if I do.

[jwei]

5:30 Update:

Phoenix Suns vs Memphis Grizzlies for Game (ML) - $5.43 to win $6.19.

Will update record and everything by the end of the night.

Potential later play as well.

[jwei]

Sigh, 76ers = huge fail. Going to chase the night to end with a decent record.

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics (-4) $7.50 to win $6.20
Dallas Mavericks/Boston Celtics (U 196) for $5 to win $4.10
Orlando Magic/Los Angeles Lakers (O 199) for $5 to win $4.03
Orlando Magic vs Los Angeles Lakers (-5) $7.50 for $5.73

[jwei]

WOW, didn't know how I didnt see this.


LOCK of the night:

Orlando Magic vs Los Angeles Lakers (-2) for 1st Half risking $69.98 to win $49.98.

SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO UNLESS THE REFS SCREW IT UP.

This could theoretically be it so if I lose its done. Holding all things constant (MAINLY THE REFS), we should be good. DO IT.

EDIT: Yes BOL to everyone!

[Busterflywheel]

BOL

[jwei]

Restarting with REAL bankroll this time!

Live Bets:

Miami +10.5 1 unit for 1 unit
Charlotte +15.5 2 units for 1 unit