Originally posted by pittviper
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Thank's for the good work
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2-0 last night. Remember that I will not be having any plays for Sunday. Been up all night handicapping and watching tennis. Finally able to break it down to two games. I'm off to bed. haha.
Day 19:
NBA: Sacramento Kings +1
CBK: Arkansas State -2
After day 18:
NBA Record: 14-4 (78%)
CBK Record: 15-3 (83%)
Overall Record: 29-7 (81%)
Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 4-2 (67%)
BOL
PVComment -
lol GLComment -
Originally posted by pittviper
sounds good! thanks PV!
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Viper I really like your Sacramento pick...Originally posted by pittviper
We should be on the right side... Nearly everybody is on the cats... But Sacramento @ home...
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good luck viperComment -
good luck pitt! I really like them both...keep up the great work
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Thankyou everybody. I appreciate the love.
Take it easy, and GL tonight.
BOL
PVComment -
Ark st awesome..had to take a couple runs (that 1st half run ending the half gave them momentum they carried into 2nd half) but they come out with the V easily, here's some points.Comment -
Good work on the split my man, who knew the Bobcats would finally show up for a road game. The Kings just seemingly can't get themselves figured out with Martin back in the lineup. He's gone off for two straight games, but they've both been losses.Comment -
I wen't against my gut on Portland and it cost us. Sorry guys. 1-1 night, but every period of 5 days the goal is to win 6 bets to 4. Nothing for tomorrow i'll see you Monday. There is some betting advice at the bottom if you are tailing.
After day 19:
NBA Record: 14-5 (74%)
CBK Record: 16-3 (84%)
Overall Record: 30-8 (79%)
Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 5-3 (63%)
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What I have been doing and is paying off is betting both games and parlaying the 3rd for half. I have been betting 150 or 200 on each bet and playing a 50$ parlay of the two bets as well. Tthe past 19 days i've been 2-0 twelve times, 1-1 six times, and 0-2 once. Let's just say you are betting 55$ to win 50$ on every bet and are betting 25$ to win 75$ on every parlay. You would be +1,675$ the past 19 days, risking only 75$ per day for a, get this, return on investment of +117.5%.
R.O.I = total profit (1675$) divided by total investment (75$ x 19 days = 1425$) = 1675/1425 = 1.175 *100 for a ROI (return on investment) of 117.5%.
Just food for thought.
BOL
PVComment -
It would be interesting to see if you can maintain that high level percentage. Good Luck.Comment -
The idea behind this is that the goal is to win 6 games out of every 10 plays selected. So, for every five day period, to win 6 games I would need to go 2-0 once, with the other four days going 1-1 .. or 2-0 twice, going 0-2 one day and 1-1 the other two days .. or going 2-0 three times, and going 0-2 the other two days. That is if I only hit 6 games out of 10 (60%).
With those three possibilities and assuming each week I go 6-4, , which is lower then I've yet to be, and risking 55$ on each bet and 25$ on each parlay the three possible +/- after the five days would be: +45$ .. OR .. +135$ .. OR .. +225$ (the average of that is +135$).
The proper way to get the average of this situation is looking longterm. Since I am assuming my winning rate over the long term is 60%, this is the hypothetical situation over a 50 day, 100 play period, with me going 6-4 every five day period, for all ten periods.
Since I would be 60%, this meas that I have a 10% edge over the line. Meaning there is a 60% chance that I win any single game. So over a 100 day period we assume I would win 60 games and lose 40 games. This means that I win 50$ on 60 of the games and lose 55$ on 40 of the games (3000$ - 2200$ = +800$).
As for the parlays, we are assuming that I have a 60% chance of winning any given game so I would have a 36% chance of winning a parlay (0.60 * 0.60 = 0.36 * 100 = 36%). This means for every 50 days of plays that I bet, I have a 36% chance of winning a parlay each night, meaning I would win 18 parlays on average, and lose 32 parlays. The odds are 2.6 to win a parlay; we are betting 25$ per parlay so 2.6 *25 = 65$ .. so 65$ * 18 parlays = 1,170$. Minus the 25$ you lose on the 32 parlays (25$ * 32 parlays = 800$) .. leaves you at (1,170$-800$= 370$) on the parlays over every 50 day period.
This means on average over a 50 day, 100 play period following the picks you would be +1,170$. Now if I hit 70%, you would assume I would be +2805 after 50 days. If I were to continue at the rate I am at now (79%) , you would be +3,789$.
Now, let's say I only did mediocre over the 50 days and hit 55%, you would be +491$ on average.
Once again .. just food for thought.Comment -
hey pv, wasup?
any picks for tom ?? just as leans nt bets.. wat do u think is a good game ? 
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Viper I read through your theories and just have one thing to add.. YOU ARE THE MAN....
Seriously who would have thought just limiting oneself to only 2 plays a day could return such a steady and smart way to make a profit off the books. I would wish you luck with the rest of your picks my man but you wont need it, you are too smart for luck to even be an option.... YOU THE MANComment -
Thanks guys. Monday is here. In the NBA I think Boston -5, Boston/Washington under 191 and Memphis +2.5 are all good bets but I am going with the freshest team, in Memphis. Boston should cover the -5 without motive, but they have motive now with three straight losses (to the leagues three best teams) with two of those games being decided by 2 points or less (2 and 1). They lost last night coming back by a double digit deficit to keep it close with the Lakers but they couldn't win, falling up short by 1 point. They should be hungry for a win, and have a chance right away to pound on a bad Washington team who really hasn't been the same since Arenas was suspended (though they have won their past two games, all be it vs. New York and New Jersey). The ONLY reason why Boston is not my play for today .. this is their fourth game in five days, and I refuse to bet on Washington games for the remainder of the season as they can be a tricky team to read with all the problems inside of that organization.
With four games in five days, with two of them being on the road and this being the 3rd road game in that period, the under looks like a strong bet. Add this to the fact that neither team has been scoring lately .. Washington with 7 unders in their last 10 games, as well as 6 unders in their last 8 home games .. as well as Boston with 5 unders in their last 8 games .. the bet in this game is definitely BOSTON, UNDER or nothing. I'm going to go with nothing, because Washington's playing and I don't know how tired Boston will be . That information is just for anyone betting that game.
Day 20:
CBK: Iona Gaels -9.5
NBA: Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (bought half point)
I suggest if you have +1.5 to buy to 2, and if you have +2 to buy to +2.5 on the Memphis game .. it could be a nail biting finish. It is the Lakers though, and the line may rise on its own but I don't wan't to take the chance with the amount sharp money coming in on Memphis.
After day 19:
NBA Record: 14-5 (74%)
CBK Record: 16-3 (84%)
Overall Record: 30-8 (79%)
Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 5-3 (63%)
* I'll be adding write-ups soon *
BOL
PV
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pitt whats your thought on the blazer game, also i want to start tailing you and i have a bankroll of 90. what do you recommend my bet amounts should be>?Comment -
Why Memphis?
I like Memphis to beat the Lakers in what should a close back and forth game for a majority of the game. My line for this game accounting both teams and not not accounting for outside factors like, recent results and fatigue, is LA Lakers -2. As for outside factors: this is the final game of an eight game road trip for the Lakers. They won five of the seven previous road games, including winning their last four in a row. In their previous game (LAST NIGHT) they hung on to beat the Boston Celtics by one point. In this game they led by twelve early, but looked sluggish at times and allowed Boston to get back into this game. It looks as though the fatigue is getting to them, and this will be their third road game in four nights. Kobe Bryant is listed as probable, but definitely not 100% healthy.
Memphis has had the hot hand the second half of this month and are 6-3 since January 15th. They are currently only one game out of 8th playoff spot in the West. They are 17-6 at home this season, and did not have a game yesterday .. and should be rested and ready to go for this game, looking to avenge two straight losses. These teams met earlier in the season where lakers won by double digits, but that game was in Los Angeles and Memphis was not as well rounded into form as they are now. Lakers also were not finishing an 8 game road trip looking forward to going home. Expect a big night from all three Gasol, Randolph and Rudy Gay. Memphis can keep up with the Lakers scoring (averaging the same amount of points per game) and with the Lakers being tired on the end of a long road trip, this is their game to be won.
This line opened at -2.5 and sharp money quickly came in on Memphis, moving the line to +2 and +1.5 at most books. Like I said earlier if you have +1.5 or +2 I suggest you buy a half point, in case of a Kobe buzzer beater.
End Result: I see Memphis being up a 3-5 points with a minute to play in the 4th quarter and then whatever happens from there, happens .. you never know with Kobe on the court. If Lakers do win, I see it being a buzzer beater to win by 1 or 2. Two buzzer beaters in a row for him? I think the Lakers fall short and that Memphis is definitely the side to be on.
Why Iona?
Canisius goes on the road to play league rival Iona. I had Canisius earlier in the week (at PK) when they played at home to Niagara, with that wager winning. Canisius let a big lead slip away and needed overtime to cement the win. All season Canisius has been known in their league for inconsistency. Win one, lose one. Win one, lose one. With that said, their record this season is a not very surprising 11-11. Teams in this league, the MAAC, and other small name leagues are very home and away. Meaning they all play with heart and purpose at home and all struggle to get it going on the road. Intimidation and unfamiliarity is the main reason for this for the young college players. The best players in the country are able to deal with it as they are accustomed to it, where as players in worse leagues are not able too as much (though there are a few exceptions). I really except Canisius to struggle, tomorrow night against a strong defensive and very hot Iona team.
Iona has won their past seven games, four at home and three on the road. Iona is one of the only bright parts of an almost otherwise terrible conference. My line says, once again not including outside factors, Iona -11. Iona is 16-6 on the season and 8-3 in league play, with only one team having a better record. The only thing in Canisius' favor in this mis-match is the fact that Iona plays Siena, in their next game, four days from today. When asked about that prior to their 16th win the other night, Iona guard Jermel Jenkins said:
"Last year it was tough to get wins, but now we're all one year older and we work harder. You always have to have confidence in yourself and confidence in your team. The key for us is that we never look ahead. We keep our mind only on our next game."
Iona doesn't look forward, but I am sure they look backwards. Looking backwards, like I said they've had seven straight wins .. but the game sparking that seven game winning streak was a 77-65 road loss on the road in Canisius (as 1 point favorites). They will definitely be looking to show Canisius that they are a different team than the one they played a few weeks ago, at home tonight. The -9.5 line, compared to the -1 line in their last matchup.
Iona has the 40th ranked defense in the country. In their last matchup Iona allowed Canisius too much room to get good three pointers off and got into foul trouble early. This will be a different tonight.
Most of the money coming in on tomorrows college games will be on the Texas/Oklahoma state match up. I leaned to OK State +2.5, but Iona is a much better selection. With the majority of bets being on that game, the remainder of the college games have very soft lines. Iona -9.5 is the softest in my opinion, this line is pillow soft. haha. The books wan't 50-50 money and they should get that on this game. Amongst the other big spread games Canisius looks the best to the public as they won in their last game and they are only single digit underdogs. While other cappers are
going to see how well Iona is doing lately and bet on them even
though it is close to a double digit favourite .. because of the high number, lots will be weary though. Leaving close to 50/50 action .. so the books win, and so do we with Iona.
Prediction: Look for Canisius to go on long cold streaks throughout the game. I expect them to score between 40 and 50 points, with Iona scoring 60+. Iona by 15+.
BOL
PVComment -
Right now you should bet 7$ on each game until your bankroll is atleast 200. Once you reach 200 I suggest you raise it to 8$ (at that point it will be 4% of your bankroll).Originally posted by tongo
Once your bankroll reaches 400$ make your unit size 16$. Once you reach 800$, make your unit size 32$. Continue like this.
BOL
PVComment -
Keep up the solid work ViperComment -
Thanks Ice. Also my superbowl pick is in the NFL section, if interested.
BOL
PVComment -
That is VERY aggressive, don't you think POV?Originally posted by pittviper
I mean for $90 I'd say it's not bad to be this aggressive, but $800 is a lot of dough considering most people here are still in college."I have never seen a wild thing feel sorry for itself. A little bird will fall dead, frozen from a bough, without ever having felt sorry for itself."
- D.H. LawrenceComment -
Originally posted by pittviper
Thanks for this, Im not the best at money management and was wondering what to bet with a 100 bankrollComment -
Cashil its the same if he has 90 and you have 100 theres like no differenceComment -
I realize that
Oh I see how that was misread, I wasnt asking for additional advice. I just trailed off that sentence kind of weird I guess.Comment -
Hahaha, love what your doing. I couldn't find much tonight, did find two plays I liked Iona and Grizz, so funny your on them too. I wonder if you look at what I look at. I had one other play very small with Louiville. Lets get the Grizz and Iona though, they should both cover easy.Comment -
You sir are something special. Two more winners.Originally posted by pittviper
Memphis led by 2-4 points for the last few minutes and managed to squeak it off despite big shots by Kobe. Iona meanwhile won by 19, holding Canisius to 53. Genius!
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very nice pitt! I was on them with you...good times. let's cash em while we got em'...
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Great calls tonight pitt.
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2-0 day today with both games finishing almost exactly as I thought. 4-0 if you include the leans I posted of Boston and the Under, though I am obviously not counting them. That wraps up the fourth 5 day period, at 7-3.
After day 20:
NBA Record: 15-5 (75%)
CBK Record: 17-3 (85%)
Overall Record: 32-8 (80%)
Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [21-25]: 0-0
BOL
PVComment -
You, sir, are uncanny. We should be playing these games both separately and as two-team parlays -- can you imagine the kind of shape you'd be in right now if you'd been tailing from Day 1?Originally posted by pittviper
Outstanding work.Comment -
Go back a couple pages. I posted what your record would be if you did exactly what you just mentioned. I have been doing just that. 150 or 200 on either wager and 50$ parlay of the two. Thirteen 2-0 days, through twenty days. Can't argue with that.Originally posted by No coincidences
BOL
PVComment -
great job PV, looking forward to the rest of your plays
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2-0 day yesterday, 4-0 if you were to include the leans which I am not.
*For the Northwestern game, I would bet this line all the way up to -3, so if it rises to -1.5 or -2 or -2.5 or -3, I would still bet it. Have them winning this game by 7+ points.
Day 21:
CBK: Northwestern -1
NBA: Atlanta Hawks +1
After day 20:
NBA Record: 15-5 (75%)
CBK Record: 17-3 (85%)
Overall Record: 32-8 (80%)
Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [21-25]: 0-0
BOL
PVComment -
very nice picks, you are on fireComment
