I did my best to reproduce Ganchrow's old Push Frequency Tables. Let me know if something looks out of whack.
• All NBA final scores and closing point spreads (from Cover) from the 1990/1 season through November 2th of the 2008/9 season were analyzed (21,847 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting
Code:
Spr No. St Err Freq 1 6,510 0.19% 2.29% 2 8,059 0.22% 3.92% 3 9,476 0.20% 3.84% 4 10,330 0.18% 3.50% 5 10,286 0.20% 4.30% 6 9,626 0.20% 4.11% 7 8,679 0.21% 4.09% 8 7,563 0.23% 4.17% 9 6,273 0.27% 4.69% 10 5,119 0.28% 4.12% 11 4,098 0.31% 4.05% 12 3,163 0.33% 3.48% 13 2,397 0.39% 3.84% 14 1,811 0.42% 3.37% 15 1,277 0.49% 3.13% 16 850 0.76% 5.18% 17 509 0.77% 3.14% 18 286 1.03% 3.15% 19 162 1.36% 3.09%
Code:
Tot No. Freq 170 548 2.37% 171 713 3.51% 172 869 2.53% 173 1,031 2.52% 174 1,202 2.25% 175 1,375 2.69% 176 1,563 2.18% 177 1,760 2.44% 178 1,960 2.40% 179 2,187 2.70% 180 2,348 2.21% 181 2,586 2.09% 182 2,819 3.23% 183 3,086 2.79% 184 3,379 2.78% 185 3,626 2.48% 186 3,842 2.19% 187 4,005 2.22% 188 4,123 2.38% 189 4,322 2.31% 190 4,432 1.96% 191 4,570 2.23% 192 4,600 2.33% 193 4,589 2.31% 194 4,580 2.16% 195 4,519 2.43% 196 4,432 2.62% 197 4,293 2.63% 198 4,152 1.93% 199 4,127 2.42% 200 4,029 2.08% 201 3,917 1.79% 202 3,814 2.60% 203 3,715 2.45% 204 3,636 2.50% 205 3,514 2.19% 206 3,372 2.28% 207 3,168 2.37% 208 2,943 2.14% 209 2,723 2.13% 210 2,531 2.69% 211 2,292 2.14% 212 2,087 2.30% 213 1,926 2.02% 214 1,741 1.78% 215 1,598 2.00% 216 1,447 1.80% 217 1,261 2.14% 218 1,134 2.03% 219 986 1.52% 220 884 2.60% 221 779 2.05% 222 685 1.46% 223 598 2.34% 224 522 3.07%
• All NBA final scores and closing point spreads (from Cover) from the 1990/1 season through November 2th of the 2008/9 season were analyzed (21,847 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting