The daily picks: December edition.

[tsn101]

I wanted to make my own thread to track my non-system plays. Something I'll post up every now and then. You can join as well. I am not wagering these plays, except a few, but this would be something for me to look back on and reflect.

My thread rules:

1. Make a pick and provide a reason.
2. Tail if you want, but don't tell anyone.
3. Have fun, enjoy the sport and not the monetary changes.



First pick: San Antonio Spurs -3

This is a funny selection, because the Spurs have some things going against them;

Revenge factor: The Bucks lost the last game by 14 points in San Antonio.
The other team: Milwaukee has a great record against the Spurs in the Tim Duncan era.
Public betting: 2/3 of wagerers seem to be on the Spurs.
Line movement: Opened at -2, reached -3, but now stable at -2.5.


Why I'm selecting them: They didn't play on Christmas.

They are rested and should have more fire in this second phase of the schedule. Tony Parker is having a bad year and he should be fired up against the rookie, Jennings. The coaching staff knows Duncan needs more help and his teammates should slowly provide more energy as the season progresses.

The books seem to want more cash on the Spurs so they can lose, but writing down reasons why they should win and reflecting back on the selection is the reason for this thread. Understanding how your mind works will make you smarter in this game.

[tsn101]

Spurs won. I think I was fair in my assessment.

Tony Parker had an ok game, but still poor percentages. Redd and Jennings only shot 17 shots. Big decrease then normal, which is something the Bucks coaching staff probably wanted. Warrick the only Buck playing over 30 minutes.

[tsn101]

My second pick: Washington Wizards +5.5

Last game: N/A.
The other team: Memphis is playing great. 4-0 ATS.
Public betting: Less than 2/3 of wagerers seem to be on Memphis.
Line movement: Opened at -6, but now at -5.5.

Why I'm selecting them: Memphis is not ready to consistently beat teams, this seems like a let down.

Washington should play with more energy as there are questions of a 'fire sale' involving their team. They lost a heart breaker in Minny and they should be more prepared. I expect Haywood to play better against Gasol and Thabeet. Flip Saunders should have the groups ear this game.

[tsn101]

When you win ATS by 0.5 points, are you a good capper or a bad one?

I read the game correct in that Washington did play a team on the roll tough. Haywood was alright as well. Memphis won the game though and was a free throw away from pushing past the spread. Looking back at a 0.5 differences makes you reevaluate how to use your cash.