Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

**k310** · 10-31-13, 01:39 PM

GL this season Grinder.

**Grinder12000** · 10-31-13, 06:16 PM

Prelim games - no real lines yet

Nov 1
1A Oklahoma City +2

**imotiv8** · 10-31-13, 06:51 PM

good stuff! 4 game chase or 3 game chase

**Grinder12000** · 10-31-13, 07:27 PM

Some are 4 game chases, some will be 3 game with an option for single standard bets. I'll post that when impost the game.

**Grinder12000** · 11-01-13, 07:40 AM

11/2013 0-0 +0.00 units won

1A(4*) Oklahoma City 1.10u +2.5 Locked

Explanation - Example (1A(4*) Oklahoma City 1.10u +/-?? ) +2 waiting
1A = game designation so we don't get confused, 2nd game will be 1B and so forth
(4) = 4 game chase
(4*) = 4 game chase but with a straight bet option
(3) = 3 game chase
CITY = this is the team to wager on - I will not post the other team
1.10u = units wagered
+/-?? = this is the line that will be used - typically the line I got. Might not be the BEST line available. This is ALWAYS a problem with point spreads just like roads are always a problem in towns. Just gotta deal with it. I'll be fair with no weirdo line. Some days I can wait and some I can't.
+2 waiting = line at posting and my personal strategy - NOT the final line

What is a chase? You are ALWAYS trying to win 1 unit per chase.

A Bet: risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
B Bet: risk 2.31 units to win 2.10 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + 1 unit]
C Bet: risk 4.85 units to win 4.41 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + B bet (2.31u) + 1 unit]
D Bet: risk 10.19 units to win 9.26 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + B bet (2.31u) + C Bet (4.85u) + 1 unit]

U will win 1 unit on every series overall. Losing a D Bet will cost a TOTAL of 18.45 units.

This is a high risk high reward system.

Straight bet option means in the past the straight bets have won over 62% of the time so if you do not like chases this is a valid option.

Make sense? changes?? opinions? (no flames LOL)

**imotiv8** · 11-01-13, 08:42 AM

good stuff

**Grinder12000** · 11-01-13, 11:23 AM

In case anyone is wondering I'm taking Stiflers S4. the good parts of S3 and I tweaked the S1s that should perform far better (at least they did last year and in the last 10 years).

My goal is to NOT lose money

My vision is to WIN win 99.7 units

**snark** · 11-01-13, 12:07 PM

Sounds great Grinder. What time will you usually post the system plays?
Thanks

**Want2Win** · 11-01-13, 12:48 PM

Grinder, I like what you are doing. As we talked privately, I know you have the goods!

**Afterimage** · 11-01-13, 02:57 PM

Thanks so much Grinder! Really appreciate you posting your findings. The straight bet option is also very interesting.

**Grinder12000** · 11-01-13, 04:52 PM

I'll try to get the games posted early morning Central Time -6. Tuesdays will be problematic for timing and a road trip to Dallas, Thanksgiving week will be a problem also but I'm working on logistics.

Straight bets - we all love and hate chases and for the most part I hate them. The straight bets are just that, if you can win 60% of the time why Chase.

One thing I'll be straight about - if this goes belly up I am losing money AND confidence. I thought Stiffler was fantastic last year for keeping up and I appreciate it because I could gather more information. HOWEVER, like lemmings I fear some people could not stop, if a game was posted MAYBE it would win.

ME? If things don't feel right I'll stop before I bleed to death.

One more thing I do differently with chases - I do not have a separate column for my bankroll for finished series. It's all one bankroll. If I got hit by a car THAT is what would be in my bankroll, not some magical thing with open chases not being part of my bank. It does not look as pretty but it's truthful.

I notice the line is down to +2. I've gotten pretty good at getting lines over the years, that is something that can really help your game. Go up to the ODDS tab on this site and when you have a chance during the days watch what is happening.

Today 5Dimes had OKC +2 -102 MINN -2 -108 this told me they were trying to pressure people into taking +2 because it was cheap. That is why I waited for +2.5. Now the smart money might boost it back to +2.5 just before game time, I doubt it. I don't see any pressure of it going to -1.5 though.

**Grinder12000** · 11-01-13, 05:37 PM

Snark and others - I know there are a group in the Philippians that have time issues. I'll TRY to post PRELIMINARY games at night (for me). Might not be ALL games but at least you might have more to work with.

**Grinder12000** · 11-01-13, 10:45 PM

That's it - I'm done!

LOL

Upcoming games (that I know of at the moment)
MM/DD/YY
11/2/13 2A(4) Philadelphia
11/3/13 1B(4*)New York Knicks

I tell ya - Orlando is a pain in the butt already. They are going against themselves for the next week it seems canceling themselves out! Who will finally win, bad Orlando or good Orlando. You have the Overtime FADE Orlando, The 4 games at home Follow Orlando(they won) and now they have won three in a row (ATS) Follow Orlando.

**Kababayan** · 11-01-13, 10:51 PM

Thank you, Grinder. I'll be following.

**Grinder12000** · 11-02-13, 08:14 AM

11/2/13 0-1 -1.10

11/2/13
S3 - 2A(4) Philadelphia -1.10u +8.5 locked and loaded

* NOTE like is up to +9 now!

Explanation

S3 = system Whenever a team starts a home stand of at least 4 consecutive games start the 4 game chase in the first game being played @home - play to win ATS

2A = Game designation A= 1st game of chase
(4) = 4 game chase

Upcoming games
11/3/13 1B(4*)New York Knicks

Note - I did not play the S3 Orlando game because it was going against itself in another system - no need to pay the bookies juice.

**Grinder12000** · 11-02-13, 08:17 AM

OOps

**mikew** · 11-02-13, 12:29 PM

i don't understand what a "4 game chase" means. can you explain? i'm not familiar at all with Stiflers system

**Grinder12000** · 11-02-13, 02:03 PM

4 Game Chase is a high risk high reward betting technique - Like a Martingale but with a limit. All you have to do is win 1 game out of the next 4.

Once you win, that chase is over and you have profited 1 units.

Example

A Bet: risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit IF YOU LOSE CONTINUE WITH THE "B" Bet
B Bet: risk 2.31 units to win 2.10 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + 1 unit]
C Bet: risk 4.85 units to win 4.41 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + B bet (2.31u) + 1 unit]
D Bet: risk 10.19 units to win 9.26 units [the lost amount on A bet (1.10u) + B bet (2.31u) + C Bet (4.85u) + 1 unit]

So in the prefect world you could lose the first 3 games, win the last game and come out ahead ONE UNIT in that chase.

If you lose all four games, instead of losing 4.4units, you lose a total of 18.45 units.

Yes - it soulds crazy and I was absolutely against this. But I started doing some number crunching going back 10 years and it can work . . . maybe. Wallco has made it work in the NHL. SO - I'm taking my stab at it.

Last year Stiffler had too many huge losses but some of his systems actually worked out well and some he had the right idea but I BELIEVE, wrong teams or he was counting on teams to continue losing. It seems it's easier to break a losing streak then to kill a winning streak.

It's controversial and most of the games I'll post do have about a 60% win percentage if you don't feel like chasing.

I'll explain the systems as I go.

**Grinder12000** · 11-03-13, 08:33 AM

11/3/13 1-1 -0.10

Results so far
S4 - 1A(4*) Oklahoma City 1.10u +2.5
S3 - 2A(4) Philadelphia -1.10u +8.5

Today
S4 - 2B(4*) New York 2.31u -3.5 locked

Bet 2.31 units to win 2.1 units

**Grinder12000** · 11-03-13, 10:59 AM

11/3/13 1-1 -0.10 ADDED GAME

Results so far
S4 - 1A(4*) Oklahoma City 1.10u +2.5
S3 - 2A(4) Philadelphia -1.10u +8.5

Today
S4 - 2B(4*) New York 2.31u -3.5 locked

Bet 2.31 units to win 2.1 units

It came to me late last night of an old theory about winning on the road and fatigue. So all morning I have been crunching numbers and the total was 79-2 last year which would be an added 42 units!

Delete the G1's - game will count but it's not a valid system. I apologize.

**snark** · 11-03-13, 01:07 PM

Grinder, I don't see how you're playing NYK on G1. Who are you fading? Can't be Minn, they haven't even played a road game yet.

**Grinder12000** · 11-03-13, 04:57 PM

Yea - I wish I could take that back the system does not work on previous years and you are correct - Minnesota beat Orlando but it was at home.

I was so excited this morning when I saw last year work so wonderful. Then I tested 2 years ago (pre strike) and a couple teams just blew the system out of the water.

I hope NY wins - I'll count it as a win or loss either way and delete the G1s from my spreadsheet and be more careful.

I apologize, last year G1 was 79-2 with both losses actually PUSH'S! but the 2nd year I tested 63-7 with 3 push's! before I gave up. I must be more careful.

At least my football system is doing well LOL Go Jets Sorry!

**snark** · 11-03-13, 06:03 PM

Thanks.

**Grinder12000** · 11-04-13, 08:33 AM

11/4/13 1-2 -2.30u

Results
S4 - 2B(4*) New York 2.31u -3.5 locked
Plus that ill advised new system which I disbanded - sorry, won't happen again - I'm new at posting NBA plays

TODAY

S4 - 2C(4*) Minn fade Cleve 4.41u -1.5 locked

bet 4.41 units to win 4 uinits
-------
Upcoming game

11/5/13 S1 Miami fade LAClippers

**takethepnts** · 11-04-13, 04:17 PM

Thanks for posting the pics / system Grinder , Best of luck with the Cavs this evening sir !

**Grinder12000** · 11-04-13, 04:46 PM

The game tonight is in the strongest system I know of so I'm feeling good even though I wish things had started with a bang.

Cut the "sir" makes me feel old. Old people hate sir! LOL Getting to 60 is weird. While your body gets a little slower your brain will always feel like it's 20 but with a huge database of learned experiences. Plus the range of woman's age that you lust over is ever increasing.

**takethepnts** · 11-04-13, 05:14 PM

LMAO ... VERY GOOD my friend .. No more sir ... I havent attained your 60 years of wisdom and experience quite yet , 43 here , but getting there , slowly but surely ... with the assistance and sharing of kind folks like yourself I can only become wiser . Thanks again and I wish you the best on the picks ... I have Irving on my pay fantasy pool (been doing it with the same group for the past 10 years) , and he is yet to break out for the mind blowing game this season , Lets hope that this evening ... Minni had to fight to hold the victory at NY and hopefully they are drained !

**Grinder12000** · 11-04-13, 05:59 PM

They were suppose to be drained a few nights ago. Same with Orlando but they have been playing against a few systems and canceling themselves out.

**Grinder12000** · 11-04-13, 09:17 PM

How can ya miss a freaking 6 foot jump shot. Sigh.

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 11-05-13, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Upcoming game

11/5/13 S1 Miami fade LAClippers

Is the Clippers supposed to be the Raptors as Miami plays Toronto today?

**Grinder12000** · 11-05-13, 07:09 AM

11/4/13 1-3 -6.61u

I was REALLY hoping for a better start - early season is when chases have problems as linemakers are still learning teams but COME ON!

Result
S4 - 2C(4*) Minn fade Cleve 4.41u -1.5 locked

S1A Miami fade LA Clippers Toronto -1.10u +5.5 locked (sorry BuckeyeKaptn - was getting ahead of myself on the spreadsheet)

Upcoming games
11/6/13
S4D - Minn fade Golden State
S4A - Orlando fade - LAClippers - Orlando has been canceling itself out with another system - they can finally play this one
S1A - Oklahoma fade - Dallas

**Bdolan33** · 11-05-13, 12:41 PM

Doomed if your plan is to fade the best teams in the league like Miami and okc

**takethepnts** · 11-05-13, 01:08 PM

"

**takethepnts** · 11-05-13, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

11/4/13 1-3 -6.61u

I was REALLY hoping for a better start - early season is when chases have problems as linemakers are still learning teams but COME ON!

S1A Miami fade LA Clippers Toronto -1.10u +5.5 waiting (sorry BuckeyeKaptn - was getting ahead of myself on the spreadsheet)

Upcoming games
11/5/13
S4D - Minn fade Golden State
S4A - Orlando fade - LAClippers - Orlando has been canceling itself out with another system - they can finally play this one
S1A - Oklahoma fade - Dallas

Grinder , I assume you mistyped for the upcomming games ? They are on the 06TH as apposed to the 5th correct ? Only play for this evening being the Raps +5.5 ? ... BTW , Bosh is staying home , his wife/gf just gave birth and he didnt travel with the team ... Cheers and best of luck !