Week long experiment:

[Razz_Donkey]

I've had a cold stretch in picking sides recently, decided to take a little breather and not bet any NBA games for a bit. My style of play has had me playing a lot of dogs and fading a lot of public plays, but it seems like covers have been few and far between for me. In this thread I'm going to look at every side and total for every game for a week, and see how my instinct is on games. The idea here is to evaluate my methods and hopefully get me back on track for the rest of season. Feel free to join in and share any thoughts you have. I won't have any action here, this is just an exercise to try and clear my mind and get me back on track. Lets see how it goes.

[cappinthepigs]

Sounds good. I think my game could use some tweaking too.

[Razz_Donkey]

Monday instinctual leans:

- Orlando -12 -110
- Orlando over 207.5 -110
- Philly -4.5 -110
- Philly under 211.5 -110
- Boston -7.5 -110
- Boston over 194.5 -110
- Hornets +9 -110
- Hornets under 198 -110
- T-Wolves +13.5 -110
- T-Wolves under 203 -110
- Thunder +10.5 -110
- Thunder over 208.5 -110
- Clippers -1.5 -110
- Clippers over 193.5 -110

Monday night football:
- 49'ers +4.5 -110
- 49'ers under 45 -110

Lets see how far off my instinct still is on these games. At least if things don't right themselves after a week I'll know just to fade my initial side on a game and start raking in the cash.

[Razz_Donkey]

Sounds good. I think my game could use some tweaking too.

We all hit rough patches at some point, I think this might be an interesting way to test myself and see whats wrong with my approach recently. I'll start to formulate some solutions after the first few days of results. Glad to have your input along the way cappin!

[lakerboy]

Or just fade me

[Razz_Donkey]

Or just fade me

Wouldn't dream of it Lakerboy, I know you're a very sharp bettor. Feel like sharing any of your plays for tonight?

[lakerboy]

Wouldn't dream of it Lakerboy, I know you're a very sharp bettor. Feel like sharing any of your plays for tonight?

posted in my thread already dont want to be a bad guy

[Razz_Donkey]

posted in my thread already dont want to be a bad guy

Not sure what you mean about being a bad guy, but i'll check out your plays. Thanks LB, and good luck tonight.

[Razz_Donkey]

Game time, looks like Clippers, Hornets under, and Philly under are popular plays!

[Razz_Donkey]

Monday instinctual leans:

- Orlando -12 -110
- Orlando over 207.5 -110
- Philly -4.5 -110
- Philly under 211.5 -110
- Boston -7.5 -110
- Boston over 194.5 -110
- Hornets +9 -110
- Hornets under 198 -110
- T-Wolves +13.5 -110
- T-Wolves under 203 -110
- Thunder +10.5 -110
- Thunder over 208.5 -110
- Clippers -1.5 -110
- Clippers over 193.5 -110

Monday night football:
- 49'ers +4.5 -110
- 49'ers under 45 -110

Lets see how far off my instinct still is on these games. At least if things don't right themselves after a week I'll know just to fade my initial side on a game and start raking in the cash.

9 wins
7 losses

7-7 in the NBA, 2-5 with totals and 5-2 on sides. 2-0 in the NFL. A couple of close calls with the totals, looking over tomorrows card right now. This should be a fun experiment for the week.

[Razz_Donkey]

Going to wait until the morning to make my plays, since the lines aren't out for all the games yet. There are a few tricky looking games on the slate, already fairly torn on the Knicks/Cats game. Spurs/Suns looks like a good one to watch, liking the Spurs there early but nothing official yet.

[Razz_Donkey]

Ok, here are the leans for today, every game.

- Nets +14.5 -110
- Nets under 197 -110
- Bobcats -4.5 -110
- Bobcats under 196.5 -110
- Toronto +7 -110
- Toronto under 206 -110
- Lakers -9.5 -110
- Lakers over 193 -110
- Rockets -5 -110
- Rockets over 189 -110
- Spurs +2 -110
- Spurs under 210 -110
- Blazers -6.5 -110
- Blazers under 201.5 -110

[Razz_Donkey]

Games are underway, very excited to see the Spurs/Suns!

[Razz_Donkey]

Ok, here are the leans for today, every game.

- Nets +14.5 -110
- Nets under 197 -110
- Bobcats -4.5 -110
- Bobcats under 196.5 -110
- Toronto +7 -110
- Toronto under 206 -110
- Lakers -9.5 -110
- Lakers over 193 -110
- Rockets -5 -110
- Rockets over 189 -110
- Spurs +2 -110
- Spurs under 210 -110
- Blazers -6.5 -110
- Blazers under 201.5 -110

4-0 start, but the Heat and the Lakers are really f-ing me at this point...

[Razz_Donkey]

Ok, here are the leans for today, every game.

- Nets +14.5 -110
- Nets under 197 -110
- Bobcats -4.5 -110
- Bobcats under 196.5 -110
- Toronto +7 -110
- Toronto under 206 -110
- Lakers -9.5 -110
- Lakers over 193 -110
- Rockets -5 -110
- Rockets over 189 -110
- Spurs +2 -110
- Spurs under 210 -110
- Blazers -6.5 -110
- Blazers under 201.5 -110

6-6 with Portland still toying with Sac. Every side I've hit today meant I hit the over/under as well, and if I missed the side I missed the total also. Very interesting, perhaps I've stumbled onto a correlation here for teams covering and what the total score will be...

[Razz_Donkey]

Portland and the under came through in the end continuing the trend for tonight of either hitting both the side and total, or missing both, thus making it an 8-6 night.

NBA: 15-13
9-5 on sides 6-8 on totals
NFL: 2-0

Total after two days: 17-13 playing all pro sides, all at -110

[iceminers26]

Still making a profit with that record, that's all that matters

[Razz_Donkey]

Kinda surprised that I'm up four in the win column after two days, but glad to see it. It would be pretty cool to do this for a week and come out on the plus side of things. Lots of NBA games for today, finalizing my card right now. With 12 games, that means 24 side/totals for me to pick!

[Razz_Donkey]

All the sides for Wednesday, don't feel great about this card, most of the spreads I could go either way on. A couple of totals that I liked, but overall seems like a difficult card to pick for tonight.

- Raptors +11 -110
- Raptors under 207 -110
- Hawks -9.5 -110
- Hawks over 206.5 -110
- Cleveland -5.5 -110
- Cleveland over 194.5 -110
- Pacers -3.5 -110
- Pacers under 193 -110
- Nets +9 -110
- Nets under 200 -110
- T-Wolves -1 -110
- T-Wolves under 188 -110
- Lakers -5 -110
- Lakers over 198 -110
- Hornets -4.5 -110
- Hornets under 189.5 -110
- Thunder +2 -110
- Thunder over 192.5 -110
- Houston +8.5 -110
- Houston over 210 -110
- Kings -3 -110
- Kings under 213 -110
- Warriors +5.5 -110
- Warriors under 214 -110

[Razz_Donkey]

4-5-1 right now. Can't fuking believe the end of that Pacers game, and the amount of fourth quarter points in the Jazz game. Unreal.

[Razz_Donkey]

8-11-1 pending the Warriors and Kings. I'm really bitter about the Pacers, the Nets under, and the Rockets missing their last three shots in the 4th. Easily could have been 11-9 coming into the final two games. Frustrating night, hoping the Cali teams bail me out here late.

Edit: Anyway watching the Warriors game? Refs are really helping the Spurs out. Its pretty blatant, I hate seeing these things happen.

[Razz_Donkey]

9-13-2 tonight. A couple of lucky breaks and a couple of bad beats. I didn't feel great about this card, and the numbers proved to be very close as I noted earlier. Only three games tomorrow, looking forward to a lighter day.

NBA: 24-26-2
12-13-1 on sides 12-13-1 on totals
NFL: 2-0

Overall: 26-26-2 all at -110

[Razz_Donkey]

Thursday leans:

Bulls -2.5 -110
Bulls over 202 -110
Heat +4.5 -110
Heat under 199 -110
Blazers -1.5 -110
Blazers over 202.5 -110
Colts -3 -110
Colts under 43 -110

[Razz_Donkey]

Looks like 3-2 right now, pending the Colts side and the Blazers game.

[Brakon00]

colts -3 is a bad pick razz...and u know it....colts should be more than 7 point favorite here and the fact they are such a small favorite as an undefeated team shows a chance for an upset or no cover....jaguars +3 and possibly buying 0.5 to 1 point is the correct pick

[Sammillington01]

Best of luck for your experiment.
Keep it up

[williams22]

colts -3 is a bad pick razz...and u know it....colts should be more than 7 point favorite here and the fact they are such a small favorite as an undefeated team shows a chance for an upset or no cover....jaguars +3 and possibly buying 0.5 to 1 point is the correct pick

Colts was the right play. The line was low because it was an away game and many players were on the injury report. But betting against Peyton is stupid.

[Razz_Donkey]

Thanks for the support guys. Brakon, the Colts are a great team clearly, they've had a habit of cutting things close lately, and this looked like it could be an upset, but I have a hard time thinking its a bad play. Seems like whenever I bet against Peyton he comes back to prove me wrong in the fourth, which is why I took them tonight. Sorry for your loss on the Jags.

[Razz_Donkey]

6-2 night. Not bad with the small card. I'll wait till the morning before finalizing tomorrows plays.

[Razz_Donkey]

NBA: 29-27-2
15-13-1 on sides 14-14-1 on totals
NFL: 3-1

Overall: 32-28-2 all at -110

With a good showing tomorrow and Saturday I should be able to show a profit after NFL Sunday. Still 82 more sides/totals to play, so a lot can happen.

[iceminers26]

Solid night Razz

[Razz_Donkey]

Solid night Razz

Thanks buddy.

Coming out in the plus side of units for the week would be pretty cool, its hard taking every game and still turning a profit. Still a lot of plays to go, and tonights card makes me nervous, similar to Wednesdays card. I'll lock in my final plays soon.

[Razz_Donkey]

Fridays card, all lines at -110

Raptors -7.5
Raptors under 204
Philly +12
Philly over 195
Cavs -9.5
Cavs under 192
Jazz +6.5
Jazz under 207
T-Wolves +2
T-Wolves over 211
Nuggets -1
Nugets under 202.5
Clippers +2
Clippers over 202.5
Memphis -5.5
Memphis over 210
Thunder -5
Thunder under 185
Rockets +6
Rockets under 200
Warriors -3
Warriors over 222

Not sure how I feel about this card, asking a lot from some pretty bad teams. On a normal evening of only playing 2-3 games I'm not even sure which ones I'd go with. Gonna enjoy the games though, hope everyone else does the same.

[Razz_Donkey]

9-10-1 with the Warriors pending. Can't believe the Clippers got out scored by 20 in the second half. The over looks pretty good in the Warriors game, so I'm looking for a close out of 11-10-1 for the day.

[Brakon00]

9-10-1 with 2 left tonight depending on warriors wiz game Razz......how did u go with clippers +2, also Under in Thunder game...thunder are a good young team with lots of scoring at home and the pistons have been in the mid 90's in last couple of games...
The T'wolves bet was the best bet out of all of those along with 76'ers +12.....its a shame many people didnt bet the 76'ers on moneyline........who expected them to win ....wow