Just wondering, has anyone figured out the formula vegas uses to create spreads?

lakerboy · 12-14-09, 12:43 AM

18kk · 12-14-09, 01:19 AM

If it is simple as a formula can do, then any mathematician will be a millionaire.

williams22 · 12-14-09, 01:23 AM

If you send me your points I'll reveal it.

BernieMadoff · 12-14-09, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by 18kk

If it is simple as a formula can do, then any mathematician will be a millionaire.

Why do you think that? Knowing a formula to a spread means nothing, has nothing to do with the outcome of human element.

vinny808 · 12-14-09, 01:25 AM

Lol, I'm not a fool. I just found out the pretty much look at every single player, one by one and break it all down. And then, they compare their results to other line makers that does this for a living. That must be one complicated regression equation. But I'd still like to know it.

Fed_42420 · 12-14-09, 02:57 AM

Lines are not made based on what they think will actually happen. They are made to try and get equal action on both sides.

marabdl86 · 12-14-09, 03:18 AM

^^^ I don't believe that. Line makers are on the money most of the time

vinny808 · 12-14-09, 03:37 AM

Its true. Line makers make money not on "traps" but when wagers are 50/50 on both sides. Then, they just profit from the booking fee. However, there is still a very complicated regression equation to it.

Fed_42420 · 12-14-09, 03:37 AM

Sry you don't believe that, that is fact, not just something I pulled out of thin air. Think about it, why else would they make lines??

bustabook · 12-14-09, 06:37 AM

fed, vinny... you guys are being very naive.

linemakers know, the vast majority of the time, the effect that a given line will have (regarding action on a given side). they could very well get 50/50 on both sides (or very close to it) if they so desired.

it would be also naive to believe that they don't also know which side is correct (again, the majority of the time). if you think that vegas doesn't try to edge on everything, than you have much to learn.

vegas is more than willing to "gamble" on a game if they they have an edge..

as for the formula that vegas uses to create lines, that is easy.. i just don't want to tell you.

bustabook · 12-14-09, 06:49 AM

ill just tell you it involves goats, tin foil, a dimly lit room.. and lakerboy.

LLXC · 12-14-09, 07:33 AM

We'd be rich if we did...

Reload · 12-14-09, 09:52 AM

LVSC keeps power rankings on all the teams and just goes from there. They will start with a number basked on the ranking differential, add in home court, and then add points based on other intangibles, injuries, etc. Then of course, they jack up teams like the Lakers a few points since they will get lots of action anyway.