Who wants my NBA plays?

[lakerboy]

Atlanta Dream -4.5 (1x)(WNBA)

[MidgetTossers]

[Checkerboard]

sharks caught in deep at end of power play give up breakaway and goal

[Checkerboard]

shark hope!

[Checkerboard]

deadthread montana ... where'd everybody go?

[Weaz]

For tomorrow....... Parlaying Boston and the under. 500 to win $1,300. Goodluck to everyone tomorrow night

[shari91]

bad day for me...i lost my job today...not good at all...dont know how much i will be gambling now but wanted to tell all of u how much fun this has been and i hope to be back with u guys soon...ill try and visit the thread on occasion but it will be very hard cause i will want to gamble..cant afford to lose any money right now...best of luck to all of u...even u Goat...

I just saw this now MT. Best of luck with it all. Ill be thinking of you and keeping my fingers crossed that something better comes your way quickly. *hug*

Its quite amazing, dont you think Shari? this thread was closed for a while and thats why the number is lower LB

Yeah I was around for that. And coincidentally enough we all hung out in MT's thread every day instead.

[sweetjones55]

LB what's the play tomorrow on Boston/Orlando? I got no clue on that game. PHX 1H for sure game 3.

[lakerboy]

i like orlando sj but that means boston is the play.

[MidgetTossers]

I just saw this now MT. Best of luck with it all. Ill be thinking of you and keeping my fingers crossed that something better comes your way quickly. *hug*



Yeah I was around for that. And coincidentally enough we all hung out in MT's thread every day instead.

thanks shari...ill be fine...it just sucks and is gonna be tough for a little bit but ill get thru it..

[Goat Milk]

LB, I know you are on Lakers game 3. If anyone thinks Lakers will win, they have to hold Suns to less than 105. Not going to beat them at their own game at home. Lakers/under would be a good parlay, but then again, I will be on PHX, so over may be the play in my book

[samdapatriotsfan]

For tomorrow....... Parlaying Boston and the under. 500 to win $1,300. Goodluck to everyone tomorrow night

I have the same thing Weaz but for a much lower amount. Let's Cash It!!!

[Flopa3]

thanks shari...ill be fine...it just sucks and is gonna be tough for a little bit but ill get thru it..[/quote]

MT, I just saw your post, I hope you find a new one soon bro good luck.

[MidgetTossers]

thanks shari...ill be fine...it just sucks and is gonna be tough for a little bit but ill get thru it..

MT, I just saw your post, I hope you find a new one soon bro good luck.[/QUOTE]

thanks bud...i need to get another shoulder surgery so im gonna see my doc on monday and see if i can get in...disability would be a lot better than unemployment...we'll see

[tealish]

Sharks are disappointing. Thornton is disappointing.

[shari91]

Sharks are disappointing. Thornton is disappointing.

Niemi is disappointing when you bet against him.

[Wind gara]

lb can you check your mail out? thank you

[Weaz]

I have the same thing Weaz but for a much lower amount. Let's Cash It!!!

[shawnkang]

sending 7 pts to your last post LB

63/120

[Grandmaster B]

points points yayyy.....lmao

[Grandmaster B]

800 pages later....

[Grandmaster B]

hey im gettin robbed!

[colts]

MT - sorry to hear about your job. Hopefully you will find one soon. Glad to hear you will still be posting occasionally. If you decide to have shoulder surgery, I wish you a speedy recovery.

[CarolinaDaze]

MT- Good Luck to you brother.

[kmarinouofm]

i like orlando sj but that means boston is the play.

i think the books are due for a payday finally in this series... i am pretty positive i am ready to hand my money over to the celtics tomorrow if they can win and cover 4 pts..

[Chang]

I don't think Orlando is going to get swept, nor are they going to take being 0-2 lying down.
I think they've got a good shot of at least covering +4 tomorrow.
Thoughts?

[SoV]

Good luck, boys and girls! Hope you are doing well!

[Tommy_de1st]

Good luck, boys and girls! Hope you are doing well!

At last you changed you avy

Not doing well at all but we will tonight and tomorrow

[SimonSayz]

Simon, give me +135 for 200 points?

Paco...my bad man...I didn't see this post yesterday....sorry for not getting back to you.

I laid off the hawks but got crushed again in baseball...wtf!

Maybe, I will focus on NHL & NBA until it's over with and then divert my attention to MLB & the WBNA....

We shall kill all bookies today.



Simon

[fatty mcgoo]

I see the Magic winning today as long as they can either get Rashard Lewis (5.5 ppg) or Jameer Nelson (14.5 ppg) going and getting in a groove and helping out Dwight. IMO I am taking Magic Ml and points tonight.

[JR007]

• • Recently I talked about how badly the market prices have been lagging reality in the NBA playoffs. I thought it would get better. It's may be getting worse!

Now, first off, I want to say that this isn't necessarily a bad thing for sportsbooks...or a sign that oddsmakers don't know what they're doing. The first job for oddsmakers is to protect their employers. If they're not getting one-sided on the wrong side, then they're doing their job.
That being said, we still seem to have these dynamics in play:
*Based on opening lines, and comments to media, oddsmakers were clearly giving too little respect to the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers in the first two games of their respective conference championships series.
*Based on sharp action (money from professional wagerers), the sharps weren't exactly up to speed either. We're just not seeing the Wise Guys POUND the Celtics and Lakers. They've been surprised by the cover margins as well. I should point out though that the initial moves in the series prices were correct. Sharps did hit Boston and the Lakers at the opening series lines of -300.
*The public sure expected more from Orlando, but they generally back Kobe Bryant and the Lakers at whatever the price is.
To this point, what we're seeing in the conference championship round is a continuation of the earlier rounds. The superior team keeps getting the job done. Nobody zigs. Nobody zags. Nobody says referees or the league office is trying to create drama. There's no drama!
From the last round:
*The market prices (the sum of influences from oddsmakers/sharps/squares) never reflected Orlando's true edges over Atlanta. They never came close!
*The market prices never reflected Phoenix's true edges over San Antonio. Some big differences here as well.
*The market prices failed to respect Boston as they pulled away from Cleveland.
*The market prices undershot the Lakers edges over Utah.
So far in this round:
*The Lakers have won by 21 and 12 against spreads of 6 and 7.
*Boston won by 4 and 3 as underdogs, covering both games by double digits.
When was the last time you watched a game and said to yourself'well, this pointspread was right on the money?' Some totals have been close. But, even then...the Lakers and Suns just played to 235 and 236 against totals of 212 and 216.
This again creates quite a challenge for oddsmakers. Do they adjust their numbers to match reality? What if that creates one-sided action because the'money' isn't reacting to reality? Sure, you could be on the right side and make a killing. But, sportsbooks prefer reasonable risk to in essence'placing a BIG bet themselves' on the game. Taking a position is one thing. Being overly one-sided is another.
You could make the case that oddsmakers haven't adjusted much in the site switches this weekend to Boston and Phoenix.
*Boston is -3.5 as we go to press, which is about what they had been if they had LOST the first two games! Remember, Boston won by 3 and 4 on the road, but is only -3.5 at home.
*Phoenix is -3, which is standard if you're getting +6 or +7 in playoff road games. Home court has been adjusted off the prior lines, but not off the prior victory margins of 21 and 12. Or, really off the road games in the Utah series, which LA won by 1 and 15 points (at +4 and +3).
Maybe reality will start to march back toward the Nevada numbers. Right now, this weekend's lines are out of touch with the reality of the series. It's your job as handicappers to determine whether that'regression' is going to happen...or if you should just keep betting the teams with expressed edges to keep winning.
In past years, betting on reversals was the way to go. This year...expecting things to reverse is just having people drive off a cliff.

[doylfish]

...I should point out though that the initial moves in the series prices were correct. Sharps did hit Boston and the Lakers at the opening series lines of -300...

this is not correct??

i hit boston for the series price against orlando at +270, thought i had it at +300, but just looked at my slip and definitely still happy at +270. boston was not favored in this series at the opening line

[lakerboy]

I have little interest in this game tonight.

[JR007]

Just posting info to help....this is not mine...I believe this article was yesterday

[JR007]

these articles have been very valuable over the years to me especially in NFL......it has given me a different perspective...that is why I post them