Tangible effect of a team playing back to back nights?

[bustabook]

I have been working on a system for predicting scores via computer simulations.. and am adding an adjustment for teams playing on back to back nights (specifically WITH travel, but i would appreciate anything).

however, i dont really know how many points the adjustment should be.. i am going to use 3 points for now (-2 points for the team travelling and +1 point for the team that is not).

by chance, has anyone here done a study on this?

also, is there any information on how the over/under is effected with teams playing on back to back nights? that would also be very helpful.

thanks to everyone in advance..

[bustabook]

did some digging, came up with this (not sure if i'm allowed to post links but...):

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~dsmall/nba_rest_submitted.pdf

not a bad reference, enjoy.

[BigAL]

I know it SEEMS like there is an affect on our Bulls here, but I don't really watch NBA

[bookie]

Thank you for posting this study, but it doesn't seem to me to ask the right questions. There are teams that thrive in B2B's, and teams (often older ones) that struggle. What the author calls the stressfulness of the travel can also be studied along finer lines. Check, for example, the difference between teams playing a back to back in Denver when the first leg was on Pacific Coast Time, as compared to a team that plays a Chicago-Milwaukee sequence.

[bustabook]

bookie i agree with you that the study (while it finds the solution to its own question) does not fully solve my problem.. however i do think it gives SOME insight on what the effect of back to back games is.

thanks for the response... i also posted this same question in the think tank forum and got some interesting responses.. you should check it out.

[vinny808]

According to Phil Jackson, West Coast teams are affected the most by travel. Chicago Bulls had an easier time winning 72 games because they were in the midwest, vs the west coast face a larger time difference deficit etc. things I cannot name at the top of my head right now.

[krazey47409]

dam ima start looking at days of rest now when i pick games those numbers dont lie teams with 1 day rest play better for some reason0 days rest< 2 days rest< and 3 days rest hurts them