ONE Play I LOVE --- CHARLOTTE/DENVER UNDER 199 1/2

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  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #1
    ONE Play I LOVE --- CHARLOTTE/DENVER UNDER 199 1/2
    6-0 all plays posted on this board, looking for 7 straight here.

    When I saw this total it jumped out at me immediately. The number here is just way too high. Yes, The Nuggets score points but the Hornets keep it low scoring and we aren't going to see 200 points scored in this game tonight.

    Coming into this game tonight, Hornet games average 179 points total this year while Nugget games average 209 points. If we take that average, we would come up with 194 which would point us to the under. But I feel that is not a very accurate way of determining the total here.

    The Nuggets play out west where it is actually kind of easy to put up 105-110 points as teams run and gun all night long. The Nuggets have padded their 109 scoring average by scoring 135 on Golden State, 130 on Toronto, 133 on Memphis, and 122 on New Jersey. These are teams that everyone scores big on, so it isnt that impressive to me that the Nuggets were able to score big on those teams. Without those games in the mix, the Nuggets average is down to 100 points per game.

    When the Nuggets have played good defensive teams this year especially on the road they havent scored much at all. They scored 97 at Portland, 88 at Miami, 90 at Chicago, 99 at Clippers, 93 at Philadelphia, and 100 at Atlanta. In fact, The Nuggets have only scored over 102 points in 4 out of 11 road games this year, and the y are averaging less than 100 points on the road this year.

    The Hornets on the other hand keep it slow paced and very low scoring. Noone puts up a big number on this team and noone really has to because Charlotte doesnt score either. The Hornets have given up 105 points once this year, and other than that the most any team has scored on them in regulation is 98 points.

    Other than the 105 Philadelphia got ( without Augustin playing ), the most points any team has scored on Charlotte in 4 quarters this year is 98.

    D.J. Augustin is coming back tonight after missing the last 2 games because he hasnt been playing defense well enough. He is going to come in off the bench tonight with something to prove. I think he will have a great game tonight. As well Boris Diaw and Gerald Wallace are 100% tonight, so I think the Hornets will hold the Nuggets down to 95-100 and to me the Nuggets have to score 105 minimum for this game to even have a chance to see 200 points, and I just dont see it happening.

    Charlotte has played 19 games this year, and only 1 time has the combined total of the 2 teams been 200 or higher in regulation. That was the 106-105 win they had against Philadelphia. Also, the 102-100 game against New York, but that went to OT as was only 180 total points at the end of the fourth. I really doubt that overtime will be a concern tonight.


    This under 199 1/2 is a great play. I am not going to call it a , because as we all know anything can happen in the NBA. But anyway, I will call this a strong 75% play and thats all we can do is play these strong 75% plays and let the chips fall where they may.

    This game will go under the 199 1/2.
  • HoulihansTX
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 02-12-09
    • 30566

    #2
    I like it. Will tail.
    Comment
    • 2daBank
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-26-09
      • 88966

      #3
      i like it nobs
      Comment
      • nobs
        Restricted User
        • 08-31-09
        • 4216

        #4
        Thanks Houlihans and 2dabank.

        I feel very strongly that we will cash this ticket.
        Comment
        • PeePee
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-08-09
          • 619

          #5
          Like it... will tail as usual.

          On the side note, it's Bobcats not Hornets anymore.
          Comment
          • pattymayo
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 05-19-09
            • 10221

            #6
            I like it... Denver scores much less on the road and we all know how bad Charlotte can be.
            Comment
            • vinny808
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 10-27-09
              • 588

              #7
              the hornets? Don't you mean the bobcats?
              Comment
              • lakerboy
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 04-02-09
                • 94379

                #8
                Good luck NOBS. Im kinda liking the over right now but that could change. The line being at 199 says alot. I hope you win, you have given out some great plays.
                Comment
                • hels
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 04-12-09
                  • 8767

                  #9
                  I think alot of the inflated line total for Denver come from the perception of them being a high scoring Western Conference team and being so dominant with Carmelo and Chauncey so it's a noob pick. Also, a line of 199.5 is begging people to take the over. A line of 200 is begging people to play the under.

                  The Denver/Philly line last night Pre-Game was 217. I played 2 bets live once the game started with U212.5 and U207 cashing on both of them. I think the final point total was something like 177 I believe ???? 94-83 if the final stands out correctly.

                  Anyways, Under is a huge play here especially with Denver off a b2b. Charlotte uses the clock and Denver won't have their typical legs. It'll be a nice and slow game with a couple 3 minute runs with only 2-5 points scored.

                  BOL everyone!
                  Comment
                  • jdhender
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-18-09
                    • 866

                    #10
                    Posted earlier about this play while line was at 203.5. Not sure if the 199 is a good indication or not?
                    Comment
                    • Karayilan9
                      Restricted User
                      • 01-10-09
                      • 3742

                      #11
                      Was looking at this game aswel, great write up!
                      Comment
                      • vietgamble
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 12-01-09
                        • 115

                        #12
                        hit on the under of that game too..GL
                        Comment
                        • Domestic
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-10-09
                          • 6323

                          #13
                          Very good write up man. I will take the under here too, best of luck all.
                          Comment
                          • HittingGuru
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 11-22-09
                            • 182

                            #14
                            I saw it in this morning's paper and loved it too - I got it at under 203 (cost me -120) and it's my "Play of the day". I see the total points at high 180s or low 190s.
                            Comment
                            • boostedteggy
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 11-11-09
                              • 43

                              #15
                              thats a good pick i like it good luck bro
                              Comment
                              • nobs
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-31-09
                                • 4216

                                #16
                                Thanks everyone.

                                Thanks PeePee.

                                Its 103 at half, Dont worry we are going to get this second half.I think about 85 scored in the second half. We win this play be 8-10 points.
                                Comment
                                • LaiLai
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-07-09
                                  • 429

                                  #17
                                  Hope so, I Bet 100 on under. Dun make me regret!!*. Even if over. Pls at least let nugget lose!!* So that i can feel btr.!!*
                                  Comment
                                  • lakerboy
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 04-02-09
                                    • 94379

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                    Good luck NOBS. Im kinda liking the over right now but that could change. The line being at 199 says alot. I hope you win, you have given out some great plays.
                                    Sorry bro i knew that line was fishy. You are doing great one loss is no big deal.
                                    Comment
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