Handicapping From An Oddsmaking Perspective

SportsBookTrader · 12-08-09, 07:44 PM

YESTERDAY'S RESULTS: -1.1 UNITS

'JOKER'S R WILD' 2-3 (-2.6 UNITS)

NBA: Utah -2.5 WINNER
NCAAB: Providence -19.5 LOSER
NCAAB: Long Beach +21.5 LOSER
NCAAB: Citadel +16 WINNER LOSER
NCAAB: Iona +4.5 LOSER
'ACES' 7-5 (+1.5 UNITS)

NFL: Packers -3.5 WINNER
NFL: Ravens/Packers Over 43.5 LOSER
NBA: Sixers +6 LOSER
NBA: Sixers Over 215 LOSER
NBA: Blazers -4 LOSER
NBA: Thunder -7 WINNER
NBA: Thunder Under 222 WINNER
NBA: Spurs/Jazz Over 191.5 WINNER
NCAAB: Seton Hall -16 WINNER
NCAAB: North Texas +13 WINNER
NCAAB: Appalachian St +8 WINNER
NCAAB: Bradley -7.5 LOSER

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

All selections are based on the morning line at the Las Vegas Hilton. Yet, they will be graded against the closing line at the Las Vegas Hilton. I will play against the same odds that you are.

'JOKER'S R WILD' are 2 UNITS selections

'ACES' are 1 UNIT selections

NBA: Nets/Bulls Under 190.5
NBA: Magic/Clippers Over 191.5
NCAAB: Georgetown -2.5[/color]
NCAAB: Marquette -15[/color]
NCAAB: Iowa +10[/color]
NCAAB: Pepperdine +2
NCAAB: Xavier/Kansas St Under 147
NCAAB: Arz St/BYU Over 135
NCAAB: Temple/MIA(OH) Under 118

'ACES'
NBA: Bucks/Celtics Over 192
NBA: Suns +3.5
NBA: Suns/Mavs Over 215
NBA: Magic -7.5

Best of Luck to All !!!!!!!

bustabook · 12-08-09, 07:51 PM

should this be in the NBA handicapping forum?

suicidekings · 12-09-09, 12:16 PM

No offense, SBT, but every time I see a thread with a gimmick (jokers wild...), I assume one of two things is going to happen.

1) Your selections do well for the first few days, and then you start asking for money, trying to sell your picks.
2) Your selections do poorly and you disappear. This variant sometimes reappears under a different posting name, with a different gimmick, starting the whole process over...

Your thread has nothing to do with handicapping. You're just listing your picks with no justification, method, or reasoning of any kind...

SpreadSniper · 12-09-09, 12:33 PM

Ya, I think I'm missing the "odds making perspective" in this thread. Looks like a dude posting his picks to me.

SportsBookTrader · 12-09-09, 07:34 PM

YESTERDAY'S RESULTS: 7-6 ++1 Unit
OVERALL RESULTS: 16-14 --.1 Unit

NBA: Nets/Bulls Under 192 Lost (2.2 Units)
NBA: Magic/Clippers Over 191.5 Lost (2.2 Units)
NCAAB: Georgetown -2 Won (2 Units)
NCAAB: Marquette -14 Won (2 Units)
NCAAB: Iowa +11 Lost (2.2 Units)
NCAAB: Pepperdine +2 Lost (2.2 Units)
NCAAB: Xavier/Kansas St Under 146.5 Won (2 Units)
NCAAB: Arz St/BYU Over 133 Won (2 Units)
NCAAB: Temple/MIA(OH) Under 121.5 Won (2 Units)
NBA: Bucks/Celtics Over 192.5 Lost (1.1 Unit)
NBA: Suns +5 Won (1 Unit)
NBA: Suns/Mavs Over 216 Lost (1.1 Unit)
NBA: Magic -7 Won (1 Unit)

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

All selections are based on the morning line at the Las Vegas Hilton. Yet, they will be graded against the closing line at the Las Vegas Hilton. I will play against the same odds that you are.

Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7:00 ET)

Set to play his second game since his return to Philadelphia, Iverson looks to help the 76ers avoid losing their 9th in a row overall ATS at home, versus the Pistons.

LAST GAME: The Pistons defeated Washington 98-94 as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score caused this game to be OVER the posted total of 190 at the LV HILTON. The 76ers failed to cover as 7-point home dogs on Monday; losing 93-83 to the Nuggets. The combined score caused this game to be UNDER the 217-point total set by the LV HILTON.

ATS RECORDS: The Pistons are 11-8-1 ATS. Nine of the 19 games have gone UNDER the point total. The 76ers are 9-12 ATS. Eleven of the 21 games have gone UNDER the point total.

ATS TRENDS: * 76ers are 0-8 in their last 8 home games.* The Pistons are 3-0-1 in their last 4 games overall. * Pistons are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings

O/U TRENDS: * UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia. * UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

SPORTSBOOKTRADER'S POWER RATINGS: PISTONS -.5 and 193.5. The Pistons have a NEGATIVE POINT DIFFERENTIAL of 1.8; scoring 93.1 points/game, and giving 94.9 points/game. The 76ers have a NEGATIVE POINT DIFFERENTIAL of 5.2, scoring 96.9 points/game, and giving 102.1 points/game. Conventional wisdom says that the betting line should start at the Pistons minus .5 points, with a total that should be set at 193.5 . I arrive at these numbers by (1) finding the difference in the TEAMS POINT DIFFERENTIALS and adding 3 points to the home team, and (2) Adding the scoring averages of both teams and dividing by 2.

LINE MOVEMENTS: There was no OVERNIGHT LINE on this game. The MORNING LINE at the LV HILTON was the 76ers minus 3.5 points; with the total set at 190. The total quickly moved to 191.5; before settling at 191.

SPORTSBOOKTRADER'S LINE ADJUSTMENTS: The conventional betting line on this game is Pistons minus .5 points, with a total of 193.5. Factoring in the presence of Iverson, we come up with a BETTING LINE of the 76ers minus 5.5 points, with the total remaining at 193.5. This result derives fom adding 6 points to the 76er side of the equation. The BETTING PUBLIC believes that Iverson makes the 76ers better, and collectively will wager large amounts of money on the 76ers until proven wrong a couple of times. Iverson's presence should not have an effect on the total.

LET'S DO THE MATH:
POWER RATINGS: Pistons minus .5 and 193.5
+ IVERSON ADJUSTMENT of 6 points to the 76ers
= BETTING LINE of 76ers minus 5.5 and 193.5
+ LV HILTON'S MORNING LINE of 76ers minus 3.5 and 190
= an ODDSMAKING ADJUSTMENT of 2 points toward the Pistons, and 3.5 points toward the UNDER

We always ride with the guys in Vegas!!!!!! PISTONS (1 Unit) and UNDER (1.5 Units).

Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks (7:00 ET)

LAST GAME: Last night, the Bulls were outplayed as a 6-point favorite at home while losing 103-101 for the Nets' first road victory of the season and second in 21 games overall. The combined score caused this game to be OVER the posted total of 192 at the LV HILTON. The Hawks delivered their best defensive effort of the season in an 80-75 win over Dallas on Saturday, covering as 5.5-point road dog. The combined score caused this game to be UNDER the 204-point total set by the LV HILTON.

ATS RECORDS: The Bulls are 5-13-1 ATS. Thirteen of the 19 games have gone UNDER the posted total. The Hawks are 14-6 ATS. Twelve of the 20 games have gone OVER the posted total.

ATS TRENDS: * Hawks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. * Hawks are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. * Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. * Bulls are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.

O/U TRENDS: * OVER is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 home games. * OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. * OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings overall.

SPORTSBOOKTRADER'S POWER RATINGS: HAWKS minus 16 points and 195.5. The Hawks have a POSITIVE POINT DIFFERENTIAL of 5.7; scoring 103.7 points/game, and giving 98.1 points/game. The Bulls have a NEGATIVE POINT DIFFERENTIAL of 7.1, scoring 91.0 points/game, and giving 98.1 points/game. Conventional wisdom says that the betting line should start at the Hawks minus 13 points, with a total that should be set at 195.5 . I arrive at these figures by (1) finding the difference in the TEAMS POINT DIFFERENTIALS and adding 3 points to the home team, and (2) Adding the scoring averages of both teams and dividing by 2.

LINE MOVEMENTS: The OVERNIGHT LINE on this game was the Hawks minus 9 points, and the total was set at 194. The MORNING LINE at the LV HILTON was the Hawks minus 10.5 points; with the total set at 196. The line and the total have remained.

SPORTSBOOKTRADER'S LINE ADJUSTMENTS: The conventional betting line on this game is Hawks minus 16 points, with a total of 195.5. In most cases, the betting public pounces on a double-digit dog in the NBA; thus, we come up with a BETTING LINE of the Hawks minus 10 points, with the total remaining at 195.5. This result derives fom adding 6 points to the Bulls side of the equation. This has no effect on the total.

LET'S DO THE MATH:
POWER RATINGS: Hawks minus 16 and 195.5
+ DOUBLE-DIGIT DOG ADJUSTMENT of 6 points to the Bulls
= BETTING LINE of Hawks minus 10 and 195.5
+ OVERNIGHT LINE of Hawks minus 9 and 194
= an ODDSMAKING ADJUSTMENT of 1 point toward the Bulls, and 1.5 points toward the UNDER

We always ride with the guys in Vegas!!!!!!! Bulls (.5 Units) and UNDER (.5 Units).

ADDITIONAL SELECTIONS:

NBA: Blazers/Pacers Under 192 (1 Unit)
NBA: Bucks -3.5 (1 Unit)

NBA: Raptors/Bucks Over 206 (1 Unit) NBA: Kings +11.5 (1 Unit)
NBA: Rockets +2.5 (1 Unit)
NBA: Jazz/Lakers Over 206.5 (1.5 Units)
NCAAB: Georgia +11.5 (1 Unit)
NCAAB: Duquesne +17 (1.5 Unit)
NCAAB: Manhattan +7.5 (1.5 Unit)
NCAAB: Harvard/Boston College Over 144 (1 Unit)
NCAAB: Providence/George Washington Under 149 (1.5 Unit)
NCAAB: Radford/Kansas Over 148 (1 Unit)
NCAAB: Tenn Martin +17 (1.5 Unit)
NCAAB: Indiana State -12 (1.5 Unit)
NCAAB: Ball St/Indiana St Over 119 (1 Unit)

Best of Luck to All !!!!!!!