A decent night, as the Spurs and the Jazz / Wolves fail me, but the 3 other highlighted game hit in convincing fashion. 3-2 turns the total into 30-21-3. I'm guessing that Kevin Love's return played a big part in that Jazz / wolves game being off. We'll see when the data comes out.
-
Comment -
Picks for today.
Denver Nuggets Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 217 55.28% 44.72% 68.72% 30.16% 64.86% 33.76%
Portland Trail Blazers New York Knickerbockers -3 201 43.70% 54.98% 63.74% 35.02% 47.44% 50.78%
Golden State Warriors Oklahoma City Thunder 7.5 222 37.54% 62.46% 51.66% 46.88% 25.54% 72.78%
San Antonio Spurs Utah Jazz 2 194 42.32% 56.30% 79.70% 19.40% 39.70% 59.02%
Nuggets / 76ers - Under
The nuggets don't have the same firepower on the road that they do at home, and Philly hasn't put up a good home offensive outing in awhile.
Blazers / Knicks - Under
The Knicks have actually put up 2 strong home games recently, and Portland's defense has gone in the hole. However, I imagine the Blazers will slow things down to keep this one close and low.
OKC: -7.5
The Thunder are a bit erratic at home, but the Warriors haven't played efficient offense on the road, but they play with their sieve they call a defense. The reason the under isn't such a sure thing is that the pace might get out of a hand and produce some points. It seems like most other systems are projecting a strong under, so we'll see.
Spurs / Jazz - Under
The Spurs haven't played many road games, so the sample is a little dangerous. The ones they have played though have been unimpressive offensively. The Jazz can also be erratic at home, but they've been locking down defensively lately.
As an aside, I feel like there's an Under bias with the current model, as it seems like it never takes the over. I'll look into this in the coming days.
Best of LuckComment -
Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 12 193.5 56.66% 41.72% 54.60% 45.40% 37.98% 60.64%
Minnesota Timberwolves Toronto Raptors 7.5 208.5 43.98% 56.02% 52.08% 47.92% 33.28% 65.50%
Orlando Magic Los Angeles Clippers -7 191.5 51.26% 47.00% 76.58% 23.42% 62.28% 36.34%
Sacramento Kings New Orleans Hornets 8.5 209 56.40% 43.60% 73.62% 25.36% 40.94% 57.42%
Denver Nuggets Charlotte Bobcats -3 199 30.76% 67.90% 57.56% 41.28% 34.88% 63.18%
Phoenix Suns Dallas Mavericks 4 216 52.48% 46.36% 66.58% 32.30% 48.10% 50.94%
Cleveland Cavaliers Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 194 33.70% 66.30% 61.50% 36.96% 45.06% 53.36%
New Jersey Nets Chicago Bulls 6.5 192 65.42% 34.58% 82.68% 16.62% 53.12% 45.20%
Remember that under bias I was talking about? It's rearing it's head here. Interesting to see how it plays out. I'll have more writeup during the games as well as a recap from last night. I wanted to get this posted before tip-offs. Will the Nets get their second win?Comment -
i like it dji... i had the same problem when i started working with my simulations, lots of unders. mine was due to something not being figured right in my code. hard to say what yours could be since i have no idea what stats/procedure you are using.. GLComment -
Solid night last night, going 3-1 moving the total line up to 33-22-3. The Jazz / Spurs game went pretty far over. The Jazz played their best offensive home game of the year - interestingly enough, their second best was also against spurs earlier in the year - the offense and defensive splits were almost identical, and both pretty far above their home norm. The Spurs also put up their best offensive road game, although there were only 5 road games before it.
Lots of unders again tonight
Magic / Clips - The Magic have been wildly variable on the road. They've put up strong and poor efforts on both ends of the court. What solidifies this under though is the fact that the clips have yet to put up a strong home offensive game. They've been below average in terms of offense and have a low variance to go along with it.
Kings / Hornets - New Orleans has played a solid string of strong defensive games at home. The Kings play above average offense and below average defense, but they haven't varied much. I'm worried a bit about the possessions, since the Hornets have a pretty high variance with that regard at home.
Nuggets / Bobcats - again, the Nuggets aren't as explosive on the road as they are at home. The Bobcats can play average in term of efficiency on offense, but their defense is still on lockdown.
Suns / Mavs - Another under - Both teams are wildly erratic so be careful, but both also have some pretty stainful offensive marks on their record. Phoenix is simply much more powerful at home than on the road.
The last two games are again predicted to go under. The Grizz are getting some respect due to some strong play at home. The Nets get respect because Chicago has played so poorly.
Good luck all.Comment -
keep it goingComment -
The model is currently on fire right now - I'm hoping its because we've got enough data on teams now to start making valid predictions, but I'm going to guess it's just a hot streak that will cool down soon.
ORL / LAC - Under - W
SAC / NOH - Under - W
CHA - +4 - W
PHO / DAL - Under - W
MEM - +7 - W
CLE / MEM - Under - L
NJN / CHI - Under - L
NJN - +6.5 - W
I'll have to look and see what happened with that Nets / Bulls game. The sample on Chicago at home was small (only 7 games) and not very recent due to their big road trip. It seems like 10 or 12 games on the books is a good threshold for this system.
Last night's 6-2 brings us to 39 - 24 - 3 on the year. I'm also glad that the system picked the winner of every game last night, although a lot of games were close, and the Memphis / Cavs game went into OT.
Picks will be posted later once I run last nights games.Comment -
Away Home Spread Total A Cover% HCover% U% O% A Win% H Win%
Chicago Bulls Atlanta Hawks 10.5 196 47.90% 52.10% 41.10% 57.76% 35.90% 63.14%
Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks 3.5 205 51.54% 48.46% 33.26% 65.68% 45.66% 52.78%
Utah Jazz Los Angeles Lakers 10.5 206.5 37.16% 62.84% 62.54% 37.46% 20.46% 78.24%
Sacramento Kings San Antonio Spurs 12.5 201.5 71.54% 28.46% 56.80% 43.20% 48.70% 49.32%
Cleveland Cavaliers Houston Rockets -2.5 194 63.04% 36.96% 33.04% 65.78% 65.74% 32.56%
Portland Trail Blazers Indiana Pacers -4.5 193.5 39.28% 60.72% 68.18% 31.82% 44.98% 53.52%
Golden State Warriors New Jersey Nets 1 218.5 38.86% 59.54% 62.02% 37.98% 37.46% 61.14%
New Orleans Hornets Minnesota Timberwolves -3 194 55.36% 42.46% 36.50% 61.78% 61.16% 36.88%
Detroit Pistons Philadelphia 76ers 3.5 191 71.02% 28.98% 73.86% 24.94% 64.46% 33.58%
Got some overs today if you're looking to finally play one. New Jersey was a play at the old line, but it's moved down into the sub 60% range. More analysis coming later hopefully.
About last night:
Nets / Bulls both played one of their better offensive games on the year, and also played at a very fast pace - We're still figuring out what kind of team the Bulls are at home.
Memphis and Cleveland also tilted towards the higher end of their offensive / defensive spectrum. It wasn't as bad as the Nets / Bulls numbers in terms of outliers, but it was certainly above average.Comment -
Good work... Keep it up. I'm liking a few of the system plays today!Comment -
It looks like that Cavs game was that only one that really threw the system off.
Raptors / Bucks: Over 206.5 - W
Lakers: -10 - W
Lakers / Jazz: Under 206.5 - W
Kings: +12.5 - W - barely
Cavs: -3 - L
Cavs / Rockets: Over 194 - L
Blazers / Pacers: Under 193 - Push
Warriors / Nets: Under 219 - W
Hornets / Wolves: Over 194 - L
Pistons: 3.5 - W
Pistons / 76ers: Under 190.5 - W
7-3-1 on a night that felt a lot worse then that. Total = 46-27-4.Comment -
I've been trying to work on the formatting a bit, since copying results over from excel looks sloppy. The first row is the teams, away and home. Second row is the simulated spread and total. Third row is the % each team covers the spread. 4th row is % under / over. 5th row is % win.
Boston Celtics Washington Wizards
-7.5 195
55.62% 44.38%
51.76% 46.86%
64.74% 34.14%
Orlando Magic Utah Jazz
-2.5 202
47.02% 52.98%
53.34% 45.38%
50.00% 48.56%
Denver Nuggets Detroit Pistons
-7 198.5
33.90% 64.58%
48.80% 51.20%
46.06% 52.02%
Looking at the Denver / Detroit example, the model has Detroit covering the spread 64.58% of the time. It's fairly torn on the over under, with 48.8% of simulations going under and 51.2% going over. Finally, if you like money lines, the model has detroit winning 52.02% of the simulations.
Looks like Detroit -7 is the only play tonight on a tiny schedule.
About last night:
Cleveland put up the worst offensive performance of the year by a long shot. This was one of those fringe results that didn't evene appear in their past profile. Kudos to Houston for shutting them down.
The MIN / NOH total doesn't stick out to me as a huge outlier. I think the possessions estimate shot a little high because both teams had played fast basketball recently.
good luckComment -
A simple 1-0 last night as the pick hits, moving up to 47-27-4. Don't have all the lines yet I don't think (or last night's data), but here's what I have. I think I highlighted everything over 60%. Only games with teams that played last night are going to change when I updated the data. The Lakers are pretty close to 60%, so you could add them to the pot if so desired.
Again, whole lot of unders on the table with no overs. No overs are even close with this sim - we shall see.
Houston Rockets Philadelphia 76ers
-3 194
79.22% 19.12%
75.34% 23.12%
83.78% 14.90%
New York Knickerbockers New Orleans Hornets
7 209
60.52% 37.58%
71.14% 27.48%
50.06% 48.50%
Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs
8 187
54.22% 44.32%
65.68% 33.04%
41.54% 56.64%
Minnesota Timberwolves Los Angeles Lakers
15 201
39.34% 59.32%
56.90% 42.08%
19.60% 79.10%
Orlando Magic Phoenix Suns
2.5 216
48.38% 51.62%
58.10% 40.76%
43.52% 54.92%
New Jersey Nets Indiana Pacers
3.5 199.5
46.36% 53.64%
62.28% 37.72%
40.82% 57.82%
Portland Trail Blazers Cleveland Cavaliers
9 184
50.62% 47.52%
57.82% 41.32%
36.16% 62.36%
Golden State Warriors Chicago Bulls
4.5 213.5
65.88% 34.12%
64.20% 35.80%
58.72% 39.86%
Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies
2 200
34.80% 63.60%
69.30% 29.74%
31.46% 66.94%Comment -
Rockets: -3 - W
Rockets / Philly: Under 194 - W
Knicks: +7 - W
Knicks / Hornets: Under 209 - PUSH
Bobcats / Spurs - Under 189 - L
Nets / Pacers - Under 199.5 - W
GSW: +4.5 - L
GSW / Chicago: Under 213.5 - W
Memphis: -2 - L (My loss of the night! I'll look into this in a bit)
OKC / Grizz: Under 200 - W
6-3-1 on the night, 53-29-5. Some of these games were very close both ways - A few unders won by a point. That's bball.
In the Grizz / OKC game ,OKC put up their best adjusted offensive night, while Memphis put up their worst adjusted defensive night with respect to location for both stats. These things fall in the range of the calculation, but they're well off the average.
I didn't get a chance to post the Dallas / Heat and Atlanta / Toronto picks, but it managed to get the two picks from that game right. Obviously, this won't go into the record ex post facto.
Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls
-10.5 187
56.50% 43.50% 57.88% 41.10% 70.14% 28.54%
Minnesota Timberwolves Sacramento Kings
8 206
42.44% 55.96% 50.52% 48.22% 31.28% 67.26%
Indiana Pacers Washington Wizards
8 205
48.98% 49.42% 63.82% 34.82% 36.84% 61.78%
Phoenix Suns Denver Nuggets
8.5 228.5
46.50% 53.50% 48.94% 51.06% 36.18% 62.56%
Portland Trail Blazers Milwaukee Bucks
3 189.5
52.18% 45.76% 50.96% 49.04% 46.78% 51.50%
Los Angeles Lakers Utah Jazz
-1 203.5
54.58% 44.38% 63.06% 36.94% 55.62% 43.20%
Only 2 bets (both unders, shocker) on the table so far - I would be wary of the Lakers pick - not because of Kobe's finger, but because the lakers have only played 4 games on the road this year so far. That's not a sample worth betting serious money on.Comment -
Went 1-1 on Saturday for a total of 54-30-5. That one indiana / washington total defied all prior statistics as both teams played their best offensive games by a long shot.
Boston Celtics Memphis Grizzlies -8 194.5 38.71% 60.01% 52.32% 47.68% 50.05% 48.58%
Minnesota Timberwolves Utah Jazz 13 201 40.00% 58.78% 46.20% 52.59% 23.72% 75.25%
Golden State Warriors Philadelphia 76ers 3.5 208.5 62.85% 37.15% 75.40% 24.60% 55.41% 42.74%
New Orleans Hornets Dallas Mavericks 8 196 59.87% 38.59% 58.26% 40.27% 47.54% 50.86%
Oklahoma City Thunder Denver Nuggets 10.5 207.5 59.89% 40.11% 49.68% 50.32% 43.83% 54.95%
The system likes 3 games - Memphis +8, GS +3.5, and the Under in the GSW / PHI game. There are a couple other close ones that I'll include as well that are a hair under 60% - NOH +8 and OKC +10.5.
I'm pretty happy with where the simulations are right now. It seems like there's a bit of an under bias - is there any anecdote or opinion on bettors going with overs more frequently? Perhaps Vegas is trying to trap the over bettors - just a thought. Or perhaps my possession estimates need to be tweaked.
BOLComment -
The warriors sure play some proper defense. According to my model, the warriors put up their worst defensive performance on the road and the sixers capitalized. Fortunately, the other picks hits, producing a nice 3-2 day. Total is now 57-32-5.
New York Knickerbockers Charlotte Bobcats 4.5 197 55.78% 44.22% 51.23% 47.54% 48.50% 49.98%
Toronto Raptors Miami Heat 7 204.5 69.87% 28.99% 52.54% 47.46% 61.19% 37.58%
Sacramento Kings Portland Trail Blazers 7 200 52.84% 45.54% 41.50% 57.02% 41.93% 56.49%
New Jersey Nets Cleveland Cavaliers 14 195.5 42.14% 56.03% 53.72% 46.28% 20.17% 78.51%
San Antonio Spurs Phoenix Suns 2 211 47.85% 50.97% 52.41% 46.39% 45.14% 53.44%
Detroit Pistons Houston Rockets 5 188 46.30% 52.31% 43.45% 55.42% 39.12% 59.37%
Los Angeles Lakers Chicago Bulls -9.5 193 58.71% 41.29% 74.91% 24.10% 71.50% 27.19%
The system liked the Bulls / Lakers under - However, 2 caveats. 1) The Lakers still don't have much of a road resume, and 2) These 75% total plays have not had much success lately. I'll probably still bet it anyway though. The system only projects about 78 points for the Bulls - ouch!
Another one that it likes is the Toronto +7. Other lines were more appetizing when they opened (Rockets / Pistons at 186.5) but the line has creeped up. Kings / Blazers is another total that has crept up and ruined the value.
Good luck!Comment -
Another 1-1 evening, as Toronto put up a stinker on the offensive end, and their usual miserable defense on the other side of the court. Record is 58-33-5
After the Lakers / Bulls game started off with 62 points in the first quarter, I thought this play was toast as well. Fortunately, things settled down.
Lots of picks tonight:
Houston Rockets Denver Nuggets 8.5 210 51.39% 48.61% 56.04% 42.94% 36.37% 61.80%
Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder -2 192.5 52.37% 46.16% 43.45% 56.55% 55.16% 43.53%
Charlotte Bobcats Indiana Pacers 3.5 191.5 45.90% 54.10% 57.84% 42.16% 40.04% 58.47%
Toronto Raptors Orlando Magic 11 207 45.92% 52.82% 41.55% 57.06% 32.49% 66.20%
Utah Jazz New Jersey Nets -8.5 199.5 32.18% 67.82% 74.20% 25.80% 46.86% 51.22%
Washington Wizards Sacramento Kings 3 213 35.73% 62.29% 48.41% 50.12% 29.96% 68.22%
Cleveland Cavaliers Philadelphia 76ers -6 194.5 65.33% 33.31% 69.49% 30.51% 75.04% 23.61%
San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors -5.5 214 52.92% 47.08% 30.94% 68.18% 58.53% 40.00%
Detroit Pistons New Orleans Hornets 5 189.5 47.57% 50.31% 68.80% 31.20% 37.69% 60.47%
Los Angeles Lakers Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 198 42.12% 57.88% 61.35% 36.96% 50.16% 48.43%
Memphis Grizzlies Atlanta Hawks 9.5 207 39.94% 60.06% 31.31% 67.53% 28.73% 70.16%
Los Angeles Clippers Minnesota Timberwolves 1.5 188 58.47% 41.53% 36.88% 62.10% 56.37% 42.57%
There are a couple 60% plays that i'm not highlighting - I'm trying a new methodology on what plays to pick - it'll be interesting to see how it pays off. The picks not included over 60% are picks that generally have a higher than normal variation with every sim that I run, most likely due to higher standard deviations with performances.
Good luck!Comment -
Nets: -8.5 - L
Nets / Jazz: Under 199.5 - L
Cavs: -6 - W
Cavs / 76ers: Under 194.5 - L
SAS / GSW: Over 214 - L
DET / NOH: Under 189.5 - W
MEM / ATL - Over 207 - PUSH
First losing night in a while - 2-4-1 - Bringing the total 60-37-6.
60% plays I didn't hightligh
SAC: -3 - Push
ATL: +9.5 - W
LAC / MIN: Over 188 - W
LAL / MIL: Under 198 - L
Interesting results indeed - It's only 1 night though. I'll be interested to see how the pace of that GSW game turned out, since that one was very low.
I'm also thinking about developing a new model to go along with this one. We'll see if I get on that today. Picks will come later.
Best of luck.Comment -
Alright, new model is up and running. This one takes into account teams FG% and FT% as opposed to just offensive and defensive efficiencies. It'll be interesting to compare.
Old Model
New York Knickerbockers Chicago Bulls 3 202.5 76.33% 22.45% 62.43% 37.57% 72.69% 25.98%
Orlando Magic Miami Heat -4 199 64.51% 34.12% 61.49% 37.39% 69.67% 29.31%
Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers 2 202.5 45.00% 53.61% 59.73% 40.27% 42.35% 56.27%
New Model
New York Knickerbockers Chicago Bulls 3 202 69.67% 29.03% 69.46% 29.57% 65.83% 32.86%
Orlando Magic Miami Heat -4 199 55.79% 42.93% 61.33% 37.75% 60.94% 37.62%
Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers 1.5 202.5 42.90% 57.10% 60.81% 39.19% 40.16% 58.48%
Found a data error in the second sim - here are the new lines
New York Knickerbockers Chicago Bulls 3 202 63.25% 35.33% 64.34% 34.62% 59.13% 39.41%
Orlando Magic Miami Heat -4 199 57.23% 41.45% 62.29% 36.68% 62.64% 36.06%
Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers 1.5 203 41.73% 58.27% 61.43% 37.60% 39.23% 59.49%
It likes the Knicks in both sims as well as the unders. Not sure why Orlando takes a hit in the new one, but it does. Portland gets a boost in the new model. That could be another bet if you're looking for action.
Best of luck.Comment -
Old Model ends up 2-3, while the new model avoids the Magic and goes 2-2. I'm going to pit these two head to head and see what happens. I feel like abandoning the old record and starting fresh. Previous old record was 60-37-5 (I'll exclude last night's games for time frame's sake).
Old model Total - 2-3
New Model Total - 2-2Comment -
Old Sim
Houston Rockets Dallas Mavericks 5.5 200 63.80% 36.20% 75.06% 23.73% 53.31% 44.73%
Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland Cavaliers 9.5 192 42.22% 57.78% 35.67% 62.78% 26.16% 72.27%
Indiana Pacers Memphis Grizzlies 6 210 35.65% 62.92% 61.71% 36.94% 28.12% 70.80%
Philadelphia 76ers Boston Celtics 11.5 195 62.53% 37.47% 48.96% 49.49% 42.67% 55.53%
Utah Jazz Atlanta Hawks 6 206.5 34.73% 63.94% 48.39% 51.61% 26.82% 71.69%
Sacramento Kings Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 211 67.84% 32.16% 55.51% 42.69% 69.98% 28.47%
Denver Nuggets New Orleans Hornets -1 202.5 40.41% 57.24% 58.69% 41.31% 42.76% 55.57%
Washington Wizards Golden State Warriors 3 222.5 48.00% 50.82% 44.20% 55.80% 44.14% 54.63%
New Jersey Nets Toronto Raptors 7.5 204 53.47% 46.53% 60.33% 38.18% 40.96% 57.67%
Detroit Pistons Oklahoma City Thunder 5 185 45.14% 52.65% 48.47% 49.96% 35.98% 62.35%
Los Angeles Clippers New York Knickerbockers 2 202.5 55.14% 43.67% 40.57% 59.43% 52.98% 45.86%
New Sim
Houston Rockets Dallas Mavericks 5.5 200 61.85% 38.15% 62.81% 36.14% 54.49% 44.19%
Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland Cavaliers 9.5 192 39.58% 60.42% 35.94% 62.71% 26.51% 72.05%
Indiana Pacers Memphis Grizzlies 6 210 46.04% 52.73% 61.35% 37.51% 38.64% 60.06%
Philadelphia 76ers Boston Celtics 11.5 195 52.25% 47.75% 46.45% 52.49% 37.27% 61.54%
Utah Jazz Atlanta Hawks 6 206.5 35.24% 63.61% 46.10% 53.90% 29.02% 69.94%
Sacramento Kings Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 210.5 42.81% 57.19% 53.35% 46.65% 44.20% 54.63%
Denver Nuggets New Orleans Hornets -1 202.5 55.03% 43.80% 52.44% 47.56% 56.20% 42.84%
Washington Wizards Golden State Warriors 3 222.5 48.03% 50.61% 38.87% 61.13% 43.82% 54.75%
New Jersey Nets Toronto Raptors 7.5 204 49.66% 50.34% 58.46% 40.45% 39.48% 59.13%
Detroit Pistons Oklahoma City Thunder 5 185 44.31% 54.11% 51.65% 46.97% 36.80% 61.84%
Los Angeles Clippers New York Knickerbockers 2 202.5 52.94% 45.76% 41.87% 58.13% 50.80% 48.12%Comment -
sorry newer to this thread so what are the picks tonight exactly?Comment -
No worries - because getting the data into the forum from excel is a pain, I have to make due with this bizarre format.
Picks are as follows:
Old Sim
Houston Rockets 5.5 63.80% Under 200 75.06%
Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland Cavaliers Over 192 62.78%
Memphis Grizzlies - 6 62.92% Under 210 61.71%
Philadelphia 76ers 11.5 62.53%
Atlanta Hawks -6 206.5 63.94%
Sacramento Kings -1.5 211 67.84%
New Jersey Nets Toronto Raptors Under 204 60.33%
New Sim
Houston Rockets 5.5 61.85% Under 200 62.81%
Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 60.42% Over 192 62.71%
Indiana Pacers Memphis Grizzlies Under 210 61.35%
Atlanta Hawks - 6 63.61%
Washington Wizards Golden State Warriors Over 222.5 61.13%
Hope that helps - format shows
<away team> <home team> <spread> <total> <away cover %><home cover %><under %><over %><away win%><home win %>Comment -
Old
Houston Rockets 5.5 63.80% - W Under 200 75.06% - L
Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland Cavaliers Over 192 62.78% - L
Memphis Grizzlies - 6 62.92% - W Under 210 61.71% - W
Philadelphia 76ers 11.5 62.53% - W
Atlanta Hawks -6 206.5 63.94% - W
Sacramento Kings -1.5 211 67.84% - L
New Jersey Nets Toronto Raptors Under 204 60.33% - L
Record - 5-4 - Total - 7-7
New
Houston Rockets 5.5 61.85% - W Under 200 62.81% -L
Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 60.42% - L Over 192 62.71% -L
Indiana Pacers Memphis Grizzlies Under 210 61.35% - W
Atlanta Hawks - 6 63.61% - W
Washington Wizards Golden State Warriors Over 222.5 61.13% - W
Record - 4-3 - Total - 6-5Comment -
I'm going to try and work up a macro that will make the results easier to read. Will post once its done.Comment -
or just take a screenshot of the excel and post it hereComment -
Preliminary Macro - hope to work on bolding and other formatting soon. This is the new sim results.
Indiana Pacers At San Antonio Spurs
Spread: 11.5 / Total: 204
Indiana Pacers cover: 49.81% San Antonio Spurs cover: 50.19%
Under: 58.16% Over: 40.87%
Indiana Pacers win: 34.83% San Antonio Spurs win: 64.01%
Atlanta Hawks At Chicago Bulls
Spread: -4.5 / Total: 196
Atlanta Hawks cover: 65.43% Chicago Bulls cover: 34.57%
Under: 75.63% Over: 23.44%
Atlanta Hawks win: 71.11% Chicago Bulls win: 27.63%
Utah Jazz At Charlotte Bobcats
Spread: 3 / Total: 190
Utah Jazz cover: 41.83% Charlotte Bobcats cover: 56.72%
Under: 57.82% Over: 40.82%
Utah Jazz win: 37.01% Charlotte Bobcats win: 61.29%
Sacramento Kings At Milwaukee Bucks
Spread: 6 / Total: 207.5
Sacramento Kings cover: 42.80% Milwaukee Bucks cover: 56.17%
Under: 37.36% Over: 62.64%
Sacramento Kings win: 37.31% Milwaukee Bucks win: 61.86%
Washington Wizards At Phoenix Suns
Spread: 10.5 / Total: 218
Washington Wizards cover: 40.91% Phoenix Suns cover: 59.09%
Under: 48.56% Over: 50.23%
Washington Wizards win: 27.43% Phoenix Suns win: 71.39%
Portland Trail Blazers At Orlando Magic
Spread: 8.5 / Total: 192.5
Portland Trail Blazers cover: 49.97% Orlando Magic cover: 50.03%
Under: 47.59% Over: 52.41%
Portland Trail Blazers win: 38.68% Orlando Magic win: 60.06%
Oklahoma City Thunder At Houston Rockets
Spread: 3.5 / Total: 193.5
Oklahoma City Thunder cover: 62.58% Houston Rockets cover: 37.42%
Under: 59.14% Over: 40.86%
Oklahoma City Thunder win: 57.32% Houston Rockets win: 41.14%
Los Angeles Lakers At New Jersey Nets
Spread: -12 / Total: 196.5
Los Angeles Lakers cover: 55.55% New Jersey Nets cover: 43.06%
Under: 64.69% Over: 35.31%
Los Angeles Lakers win: 72.31% New Jersey Nets win: 26.35%
Los Angeles Clippers At Philadelphia 76ers
Spread: 3.5 / Total: 193.5
Los Angeles Clippers cover: 55.43% Philadelphia 76ers cover: 44.57%
Under: 59.42% Over: 40.58%
Los Angeles Clippers win: 50.69% Philadelphia 76ers win: 48.17%Comment -
Old Sim
Indiana Pacers At San Antonio Spurs
Spread: 12 / Total: 204
Indiana Pacers cover: 49.55% San Antonio Spurs cover: 48.86%
Under: 59.80% Over: 39.10%
Indiana Pacers win: 30.06% San Antonio Spurs win: 68.41%
Atlanta Hawks At Chicago Bulls
Spread: -4.5 / Total: 194.5
Atlanta Hawks cover: 58.18% Chicago Bulls cover: 41.82%
Under: 72.43% Over: 27.57%
Atlanta Hawks win: 64.35% Chicago Bulls win: 33.96%
Utah Jazz At Charlotte Bobcats
Spread: 2.5 / Total: 190
Utah Jazz cover: 38.20% Charlotte Bobcats cover: 61.80%
Under: 70.18% Over: 28.49%
Utah Jazz win: 34.43% Charlotte Bobcats win: 64.00%
Sacramento Kings At Milwaukee Bucks
Spread: 6.5 / Total: 209.5
Sacramento Kings cover: 46.24% Milwaukee Bucks cover: 53.76%
Under: 49.73% Over: 50.27%
Sacramento Kings win: 33.29% Milwaukee Bucks win: 64.96%
Washington Wizards At Phoenix Suns
Spread: 10.5 / Total: 218
Washington Wizards cover: 31.49% Phoenix Suns cover: 68.51%
Under: 48.02% Over: 50.43%
Washington Wizards win: 15.82% Phoenix Suns win: 82.94%
Portland Trail Blazers At Orlando Magic
Spread: 8.5 / Total: 191
Portland Trail Blazers cover: 58.53% Orlando Magic cover: 41.47%
Under: 60.06% Over: 38.59%
Portland Trail Blazers win: 41.49% Orlando Magic win: 56.45%
Oklahoma City Thunder At Houston Rockets
Spread: 3.5 / Total: 195.5
Oklahoma City Thunder cover: 57.10% Houston Rockets cover: 42.90%
Under: 49.51% Over: 50.49%
Oklahoma City Thunder win: 50.18% Houston Rockets win: 48.16%
Los Angeles Lakers At New Jersey Nets
Spread: -12.5 / Total: 196.5
Los Angeles Lakers cover: 50.43% New Jersey Nets cover: 49.57%
Under: 66.41% Over: 33.59%
Los Angeles Lakers win: 70.37% New Jersey Nets win: 27.88%
Los Angeles Clippers At Philadelphia 76ers
Spread: 3 / Total: 193
Los Angeles Clippers cover: 65.02% Philadelphia 76ers cover: 33.84%
Under: 50.73% Over: 47.73%
Los Angeles Clippers win: 60.76% Philadelphia 76ers win: 37.80%Comment -
Very sloppy night for the new sim picks - it'll be interesting to see how some of the stats played out.
New Sim
Atlanta Hawks cover: 65.43% - L
Under: 75.63% - L
Sacramento Kings At Milwaukee Bucks Total: 207.5 Over: 62.64% - L
Oklahoma City Thunder cover: 62.58% - L
Los Angeles Lakers At New Jersey Nets Total: 196.5 Under: 64.69% - W
1-4 for the New Sim - Total is 7-9
Old Sim
Atlanta Hawks At Chicago Bulls Total: 194.5 Under: 72.43% - L
Charlotte Bobcats cover: 61.80% - L
Bobcats / Jazz Under Total: 190 70.18% - L
Phoenix Suns cover: 68.51% - W
Blazers Under: 60.06% - W
Lakers Under: 66.41% - W
Los Angeles Clippers cover: 65.02% - W
Old Sim - 4-3, Total -11-10
Looks like Old Sim takes a big lead.
To clear things up, I'm just going to post the plays that you should go off of and the associated %s - this will also make my grading easier. More picks to come later.
good luck.Comment -
Last night's data isn't ready yet, but here are the picks.
New Sim:
Portland Trail Blazers - Spread: 5 (61.65%%)
New Orleans Hornets / Toronto Raptors - Under: 203.5 (59.31%%)
Los Angeles Lakers / Detroit Pistons - Under: 189.5 (63.71%%)
Old Sim
Charlotte Bobcats / New York Knickerbockers - Under: 194 (60.06%%)
Minnesota Timberwolves - Spread: 13.5 (58.78%%)
Minnesota Timberwolves / Boston Celtics - Under: 196 (65.02%%)
Memphis Grizzlies - Spread: 2 (69.22%%)
Cleveland Cavaliers - Spread: -3.5 (59.37%%)
Portland Trail Blazers - Spread: 5 (67.67%%)
Portland Trail Blazers / Miami Heat - Under: 186 (64.73%%)
Los Angeles Lakers / Detroit Pistons - Under: 189.5 (67.80%%)Comment -
New Sim:
Portland Trail Blazers - Spread: 5 (61.65%%) - W
New Orleans Hornets / Toronto Raptors - Under: 203.5 (59.31%%) - W
Los Angeles Lakers / Detroit Pistons - Under: 189.5 (63.71%%) - W
New Sim: 3-0 Total: 10-9
Old Sim
Charlotte Bobcats / New York Knickerbockers - Under: 194 (60.06%%) - W
Minnesota Timberwolves - Spread: 13.5 (58.78%%) - L
Minnesota Timberwolves / Boston Celtics - Under: 196 (65.02%%) - L
Memphis Grizzlies - Spread: 2 (69.22%%) - W
Cleveland Cavaliers - Spread: -3.5 (59.37%%) - L
Portland Trail Blazers - Spread: 5 (67.67%%) - W
Portland Trail Blazers / Miami Heat - Under: 186 (64.73%%) - L
Los Angeles Lakers / Detroit Pistons - Under: 189.5 (67.80%%) - W
Old Sim: 4-4 Total: 15-14Comment -
Old Sim
Sacramento Kings - Spread: 4 (59.20%)
Sacramento Kings / Chicago Bulls - Under: 198 (60.88%)
Phoenix Suns - Spread: -2.5 (62.45%)
Los Angeles Clippers - Spread: 9 (60.88%)
New Sim
No plays!
Good luck!Comment -
Old Sim - 1-3, total - 11-12. System is COLD right now. I'm going to take a break for the holidays. Be back in 2010.
Best of luckComment
