Something I don't get about Vegas, please explain...

[fearless]

Everyone talks about how the playoffs are a whole new season and the regular season means nothing in the playoffs but...

Vegas continues to base their playoff lines on regular season results (within a point or two usually). That's why Golden State will still be an underdog against either Utah or Houston despite the fact that they're head and shoulders above them right now.

For example, if Houston wins game 7, I have no doubt that the first Houston-Golden State line will look like this:

Golden State +3.5
Houston -3.5

When in reality anyone watching the games should know that Golden should be at least a three point favorite right now (and that's all that matters, right now, the playoffs are a whole new season, right?)

Why is this?

[Razz]

Are you serious? Houston or Utah will be at least a 5-point favorite, and it's with very good reason. Just because Golden State matched up well with Dallas does not mean they are better than Utah (they aren't even close) or Houston (they're not as good, but I could at least understand that argument). Even in this series, Golden State still stayed within five only once on the road. To expect them to be a road favorite against a much better defensive, better coached team is inane.

[fearless]

Are you serious? Houston or Utah will be at least a 5-point favorite, and it's with very good reason. Just because Golden State matched up well with Dallas does not mean they are better than Utah (they aren't even close) or Houston (they're not as good, but I could at least understand that argument). Even in this series, Golden State still stayed within five only once on the road. To expect them to be a road favorite against a much better defensive, better coached team is inane.

Insane? Check the recent results and you'll see that my analysis is not far off (not off at all, imho):

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=270409009

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=270404010

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=270320026

Utah had to outscore GS by 10 in the fourth quarter to win at home, GS should be favored against either team!

[Razz]

Insane? Check the recent results and you'll see that my analysis is not far off (not off at all, imho):

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=270409009

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=270404010

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=270320026

Utah had to outscore GS by 10 in the fourth quarter to win at home, GS should be favored against either team!

Oh, I see. Because Golden State lost by 4 at Utah, they should be favored there.

[fearless]

Oh, I see. Because Golden State lost by 4 at Utah, they should be favored there.

They were up by 7 at halftime and Utah came back, let's examine the numbers:

Utah shot 13 more free throws and outscored GS by 10 at the line.
Utah dominated the boards 44-30
Utah out shot GS 52.7%-45%

And Utah only won by 4?

Yes, I stick with my initial analysis, GS should be favored in Utah based on recent play but it won't happen. You look at the numbers above and particularly the blowout in GS and tell me that GS IS NOT head and shoulders above Utah in the last 20 games or so (and thus deserving of being a road favorite, in reality, not vegas)... I don't understand where you're coming from.

[fearless]

To back up my point, John Hollinger said that GS was the favorite against Dallas after the first game:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/basketball-handicapping/29890-john-hollinger-declares-warriors-favorite.html

Take that analysis and extrapolate it against far inferior opponents (Rockets, Jazz) and anyone can see that GS is the favorite coming in against Utah or Houston.

[Tchocky]

The regular season means less in basketball than football or baseball. Regular season results only determine seeding and whether or not your team has home court advantage. Sportsbooks don't make one team a favorite because they think they are going to win. They are not in the business of picking winners, they are in the business of taking your money. Sportsbooks don't know who is going to win a game much better than we do. Generally, when they make one team the favorite, that's who they think the betting public is going to take.

[durito]

Golden St was priced vs. Dallas based on their complete season results, as most teams are.

The difference with Golden St is not really recent play. Rather, they are a completely different team after the Jackson trade, and with Baron Davis healthy. If you rate them just on those 25 games that they played together they rate as one of the top 5 teams in the league.

These are the kind of things that thorough handicappers uncover and exploit.

[Razz]

Home team records in the Warriors/Dallas series: 5-1, by an average score of 106.33-97.33.
Home team records in the Rockets/Jazz series: 6-0, by an average score of 91.83-81.83.
Home team records in the Rockets/Warriors games this season: 2-1 (with the lone loss a game that T-Mac didn't play)
Home team records in the Jazz/Warriors games this season: 4-0.

Should the Jazz or Rockets be favored in Oakland? Probably not. Golden State -2 is fair for those games. But Golden State isn't anywhere near the quality to be less than a 4-point road dog. To argue they should be favored is simply illogical.