Denver +8.5 and Golden St +9.5

[gridironguy]

NBA Posted ATS: 5 - 2 - 1

I realize that San Ant. and Dallas will bring very spirited efforts in game 2, but I also think that Denver and GS have proven that they have the athleticism to give their respective opponents a lot of problems. While I foresee Spurs and Mavs victories, I don't see them winning by more than these spreads.

Denver +8.5
Golden St +9.5

Thoughts?

[LargeMouthBass]

I'm gonna ride the GS wave tomorrow but I don't like it as much as the first game.

I'm leaning towards the Spurs...

[gridironguy]

I hear you Bass. Spurs have the defense to really clamp down if they want to tomorrow, and I suspect they will want to.

Dallas, I'm not so sure about. I think asking them to beat a team by 10 that they've lost to 4 times this season, is a little much to ask.

[EaglesPhan36]

Definitely leaning to the dogs. Still like the DEN-SA under also.

[gridironguy]

Yes, Spurs Unders are good, esp. in the playoffs.

[rjt721]

GS + is a solid play. As you say gridiron, until Dallas proves they can beat GS, let alone cover a big number, there is no reason to play this game any other way.

As for the SA game, I think the Spurs will roll in this one. No way Duncan starts out 0-9 (or whatever it was) and Parker and Ginobili shoot a combined 12-35 (34%) again.

[gridironguy]

Good point about Manu and Tony, rjt.

[bigboydan]

I actually feel that Mavs/Warriors is a little short. My numbers have Dallas being a point or two higher in this one. I will be passing on this game myself, but if I were to wager on it I'd take the Mavs in this one.

[Checkerboard]

gridironguy, I feel the situation matches up well for a first half play on San Antonio. It's a direction in which I'll often look when I feel a team is going to win, but the spread causes ill feeling.

I'll guard against first half slow-starters, but Spurs don't really fit that bill, especially in this matchup. I expect they'll claim court authoritatively from the get go.

It's potential 4th quarter goofiness that would make me uneasy if I were on Spurs for the whole game with the big number. Things like foul-outs, questionable foul shooting calls, backdoor cover . . .

[EaglesPhan36]

Tell you what might be the best bet of the day after thinking about it - teasing the Nugs & Warriors together to get double digit spreads.

[Tchocky]

I'm with you. I think taking the points on the road dogs are the best way to play tonight's games. Nuggets & Warriors are going to come out just as hard as they did in Game 1. The onus is on the Spurs & Mavs to make adjustments.

[Crayzee]

i think i'll buy a couple pts on both dogs

[Razz]

I'm playing both faves.

[sikntwiztid]

i like the points with denver and gs,even more with gs they just know how to play against dallas

[babaoriley]

Personally, I like teasing both FAVES at home, with the pressure on to win game 2 and avoid a 2-0 deficit. I'll be playing 2 units on Dallas -5 and SA -4. There's no way the Spurs lose tonight and that 4.5 points buys me a lot more security that I can avoid any backdoor cover shenanigans with either team. I don't like teasing both dogs in this one, simply because I think one of them gets blown out...

[gridironguy]

There's no way the Spurs lose tonight

If there's "no way" that the Spurs will lose tonight, why don't you put every single dollar you have, I mean EVERY single dollar that you have, on the Spurs ML. Mortgage your house, sell your car, everything.

In case you cannot tell, I despise when people make definitive statements like you just did.

[babaoriley]

If there's "no way" that the Spurs will lose tonight, why don't you put every single dollar you have, I mean EVERY single dollar that you have, on the Spurs ML. Mortgage your house, sell your car, everything.

In case you cannot tell, I despise when people make definitive statements like you just did.

I despise people who take everything so damn literally, so I guess we'd despise each other.

[babaoriley]

And gridiron guy, I don't want to hijack this thread and turn it into a board fight, so I'll say this "I don't think that the Spurs will lose game 2, tonight, at home, to Denver. I truly believe, as someone who attended many Spurs games this season, that the effort they put up in game 1 was their worst of the season." Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to bet my kidney, my newborn daughter, and my wife on the Spurs ML because that's obviously what I intended.

[gridironguy]

Babariley, you obviously know your stuff about the Spurs, and I'm sure about sports in general. I do too. I've been to hell and back with sportsbetting. It's taken me a long time to get pretty good. I've read definitive statements by so many people on message boards, and because this was my thread, perhaps I overreacted. In fact, I did overreact. Part of the reason is that I dislike the Spurs. Great team, but as a Laker fan, they irritate me. They are our rivals.

I apologize for my reaction. I know you did not mean it literally that they have no chance to lose. ANYTHING can happen. We both know that.

Now, let's talk about the game. I believe that the Nuggets athleticism on defense caused a lot of problems for the Spurs offense. I think we might see that again tonight. Will Duncan miss his first 9 shots again? No, probably not. Will Manu and Tony struggle again? No, probably not.

But Denver with AI is a much more confident animal than they have been in years. San Antonio will play better tonight, but Denver just might have the "answer" (pun intended).

[babaoriley]

I understand your general point. The whole "This is a lock!" angle always makes me cringe, though usually it's tied to someone wanting money for a pick. I was merely providing my opinion and doing so in a more definitive way.

Now, about the game. In game 1 the Spurs took 10 FT's (7-10) while the Nuggets took 25 (21-25). How's that for home court advantage? With the way the NBA has been officiated this season, that's either an extreme abberation or a backlash against the Spurs by the officials for the whole Duncan-Crawford thing... Either way, that was the game. You can't tell me that a 14 point advantage at the line didn't swing the game in Denver's favor. Granted, 4 of those were in the last 15 seconds, but a team like the Spurs will find a way to get to the line tonight. I think they'll scrap the idea of Horry playing the dual role of wingman/banger (which was the single dumbest coaching move of that game) and put Finley back in there as swingman. Duncan should play better and with more conviction and the Guards will have to play better, especially Manu and his 4-15 shooting.

Yes, the Nuggets are a tough out, but considering they held a 14 point advantage at the stripe while the Spurs shot 42% from the field, were outrebounded by 9, and launched up an astounding 24 3's (another reason they didn't get to the line), yet were still only down 2 with 19 seconds to go... I mean, I just think they had one of their worst played, worst coached games of the season.

[BigGulpsHuh?]

I went with 2 teasers today, at 6 to 5 odds on both.

GS+14
GS,Mavs Under 215

&

Nuggets +13 1/2
GS + 14

Don't usually mess with teasers and parlays thought i'd give it a shot tonight.

[gridironguy]

I understand your general point. The whole "This is a lock!" angle always makes me cringe, though usually it's tied to someone wanting money for a pick. I was merely providing my opinion and doing so in a more definitive way.

Now, about the game. In game 1 the Spurs took 10 FT's (7-10) while the Nuggets took 25 (21-25). How's that for home court advantage? With the way the NBA has been officiated this season, that's either an extreme abberation or a backlash against the Spurs by the officials for the whole Duncan-Crawford thing... Either way, that was the game. You can't tell me that a 14 point advantage at the line didn't swing the game in Denver's favor. Granted, 4 of those were in the last 15 seconds, but a team like the Spurs will find a way to get to the line tonight. I think they'll scrap the idea of Horry playing the dual role of wingman/banger (which was the single dumbest coaching move of that game) and put Finley back in there as swingman. Duncan should play better and with more conviction and the Guards will have to play better, especially Manu and his 4-15 shooting.

Yes, the Nuggets are a tough out, but considering they held a 14 point advantage at the stripe while the Spurs shot 42% from the field, were outrebounded by 9, and launched up an astounding 24 3's (another reason they didn't get to the line), yet were still only down 2 with 19 seconds to go... I mean, I just think they had one of their worst played, worst coached games of the season.

Excellent analysis, Sir. You have me convinced that SA might blow them out. I had a medium position on Denver +8.5, but have just bought back about 50% of it.

I have kept a large position on Golden St +9.5.

Thanks for the write-up. You gleaned some things that I did not take out of the box score right away. Let's hope that the Spurs win by 5, 6, 7, or 8. That way you can get your Spurs -4.5 teaser, and I can get my Nuggets +8.5, albeit a much smaller position.

Win or Lose, your writeup is a very compelling one. I listened.

[gridironguy]

Personally, I like teasing both FAVES at home, with the pressure on to win game 2 and avoid a 2-0 deficit. I'll be playing 2 units on Dallas -5 and SA -4. There's no way the Spurs lose tonight and that 4.5 points buys me a lot more security that I can avoid any backdoor cover shenanigans with either team. I don't like teasing both dogs in this one, simply because I think one of them gets blown out...

Nice call buddy.

[babaoriley]

Well, Gridiron, to be honest, I wish we would have both won. I never wish a fellow gamer bad luck. Never. If you could have just gotten one of those tip-ins at the end and lost by 7, we'd both be happy.
Nevertheless, I think you could make the argument that we were both on the right side. You thought Denver would cover that 8.5 and they had it down to 3 with 45 seconds left. I thought the backdoor would be an issue, and it almost was... Spurs blow a 17 point 4th quarter lead (up 17 with 7 minutes to go) and end up winning by 9... One Parker missed FT would have given us both the win, or one tip-in at the end, or any of about 10 different scenarios. Best of luck to you through the rest of the playoffs, sir.

[gridironguy]

You saved me money, Baba. I really did buy back 50% of my bet thanks to your analysis. Very rarely do I take others advice, because I've been pretty good following my own capping instincts, but your analysis was tremendous. I hope you'll keep posting great stuff like that.

[LargeMouthBass]

Damn it!!! It's game over without Baron Davis...

[BigGulpsHuh?]

Uggh that first technical was lame.

[BigGulpsHuh?]

Wow i'm the luckiest S.O.B needed under 215, and GS+14 the mavs were up by like 20 with over 200 points on board with under 2 mins. to go and GS got a last minute rush to cover both my teasers.

[babaoriley]

congrats sir.

[gridironguy]

congrats sir.

Baba, you were right on the money with both games tonight. Spurs almost blew the cover but were the right side in that game.
Same for Dallas.

I look forward to seeing more from you.

Right now, I'm still trying to digest two 1/2 pt losses in two nights.