Chicago -3.5 looks good to me.

[gridironguy]

NBA Playoff ATS posted: 3 - 0 - 1

I grabbed this one early because I believe the line will go up to
Chicago -4 or -4.5 by tip-off.

The Bulls are the better team, they're at home, and the Heat don't have enough with Wade at 75% and many of their key cogs on down years after the title last season.

Chicago -3.5 is the play.

Thoughts?

[bigboydan]

I like the Bulls myself in this game.

[Wheell]

Historically teams that win game 1 are not as strong game 2. If a team goes up 2-0 it is VERY hard to go up 3-0. However, once up 3-0 game 4 is much easier. The spreads take this into account. That is why it is VERY tempting to take the game 2 lines of a team up 1-0.

[gridironguy]

I like the Bulls myself in this game.

Dan, I could be wrong but I really believe this line is gonna go up.

I suggest grabbing it soon.

[bigboydan]

I feel this line will go down around game time.

I think we will see a ton of Heat backers about an hour or so before game time.

[gridironguy]

Historically teams that win game 1 are not as strong game 2. If a team goes up 2-0 it is VERY hard to go up 3-0. However, once up 3-0 game 4 is much easier. The spreads take this into account. That is why it is VERY tempting to take the game 2 lines of a team up 1-0.

Your point is noted, but the history goes out the window when you have a home team that is more talented overall, and is hellbent on revenge (miami has owned them in recent years).

Talent plus motivation is a very dangerous combo. The historical perspective has a tendency to go out the window in situations like this one.

[gridironguy]

I feel this line will go down around game time.

I think we will see a ton of Heat backers about an hour or so before game time.

I cannot imagine why someone would back the heat in this spot. I say it's either Chicago or pass on the game altogether. The Heat may cover, and perhaps win, but I don't believe it's a wise bet at this point in time. My .02

[bigboydan]

I cannot imagine why someone would back the heat in this spot.

I agree with your sentiments in regards to this game. However, look at it from a public prospective for a second. Here we have the defending champs down 1-0 in the series, and Shaq is healthy, and D-Wade is back for the playoffs. It's no big secrete that the public likes to bet the obvious, and or the media hype.

[onlooker]

The Bulls are the only way I could play game 2 if I was going to bet it.

[gridironguy]

I agree with your sentiments in regards to this game. However, look at it from a public prospective for a second. Here we have the defending champs down 1-0 in the series, and Shaq is healthy, and D-Wade is back for the playoffs. It's no big secrete that the public likes to bet the obvious, and or the media hype.

I agree with you how on the public will be thinking Dan, but there is way less public money out there in offshore books than there has been in a decade. Probably 10-15% of what there used to be in terms of pure public money. It is mostly sharp money moving the lines. I believe the sharp money will be on the Bulls.

[bigboydan]

You do make a valid point in regards to the offshore books. However, there are other outs than just offshore that the publics use. I'm sure that Vegas will have more than there fair share of public type bettors that will push that line downward. When you start to see large sums of volume coming in on the Heat there going to have to adjust that line everywhere accordingly.

[gridironguy]

You do make a valid point in regards to the offshore books. However, there are other outs than just offshore that the publics use. I'm sure that Vegas will have more than there fair share of public type bettors that will push that line downward. When you start to see large sums of volume coming in on the Heat there going to have to adjust that line everywhere accordingly.

Very good point, Dan. Now I'm feeling bad for loading up at -3.5!!!

[bigboydan]

Hell, We could both be wrong here. You never know that line might not move at all.

[gridironguy]

LOL, very true.

[capitalist pig]

To much Bull backing, Im going the other way Miami +4.0, and Im going to really live dangerous tonight, taking the lakers +9.5 also.

later

[BigGulpsHuh?]

It dropped to 3 on bodog for an hour or so earlier this morning, loaded up on that. Back up to 3 1/2.

[moses millsap]

I think the Heat will get all the whistles in this game.

[bigboydan]

I think the Heat will get all the whistles in this game.

I don't feel that will be the case here at all Owned.

If you are going to take the Heat in this game you better hurry up, because I see a couple of 3's starting to pop up right now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't like a side in this one. Probably going with the over as all the meetings between the two in Chicago this year have gone that way. GL to you guys!