007's NBA Season Long Thread

[secret007]

I will post all my actual plays with the unit here. For this purpose, lets assume I have 100 units at the beginning. Mostly, I will play a fixed 10% of my bankroll until I reach a certain target. I will post all my plays at least 30 minutes before the game started.

I've been betting constantly in NBA for 2 years and this is my third year and I have had 2 profitable NBA season so I am hoping for another one.

The reason I make this thread is to keep myself disciplined in betting. In the past, I betted way too may games and made me losing a big part of the profit. Second of all, I would like to hear opinion on the games I am betting.

Ok that's it. Cheers to a profitable season ahead.

[PASS IT ON]

Good luck 007, hope to see a profit by seasons end.

[branrave]

good luck to all us, hope we have a profitable season

[shantystar]

go ahead let we see !

[secret007]

First few games would be hard to predict since we have no idea how the team will perform. While preseason might help a bit, its not a very reliable indication of how team will do in the regular season.

Lets start!

Cleveland v Boston.
I will not play either of them at -4.5 especially the first game of the season. I know that Celtics beat Cavaliers badly a week ago in pre-season but dont be fool by that! As a celtic fans, i still dont think Celtics will win this game. Choose Cavaliers -4.5 if any, but I stay out of this game.

Instead, I will bet under 185.5 for this game. Both team is a good defensive team. The preseason proved that and Celtics wont be scoring that many in the regular season.

OFFICIAL: BET 11 unit to win 10 .. BOSTON v CLEVELAND under 185.5

lakers v clippers.. i have not seen clippers played this preseason so i will stay away from this game entirely especially since there are also reports that bynum and gasol are doubtful.

dallas v wizard .. same reason as above, i stay away from this game.

portland v houston .. this game could go either way. portland is a very good team at home and they are very motivated to take revenge over houston rockets who beat them in playoff. They are capable of beating them double digit in their day. However, Houston should not be taken lightly even without Yao and T-mac. We saw what they were capable of doing in their playoff against Lakers. I will stay away from this game. I am considering under on this game but have not make final decision. I will see the line movement and further statistic first.


SO FAR : OFFICIAL : BOSTON CLEVELAND under 185.5
LEANING TOWARDS: PORTLAND ROCKETS under ..

[RoagBettor]

Be careful on the Rockets under. They are playing an uptempo game without Yao because they're not going to win a halfcourt game in the paint. And they have several guys who can nail the 3 to keep them in a game.

Good luck this season.

[cockblocker]

Without Yao, Adelman wants to be more up-tempo and generate easier shots. "I haven't seen very many all-out fast-break teams in the NBA," Adelman said. "It's too well-coached and well-scouted. But you can be a very good up-tempo transition team and that's what we want to do. If we can get guys up the court and attack the defense before they're completely set, then we can find things out and we can be successful. We can't just walk it up. We don't have the personnel."

I know these are preseason games but the scores reflect the type of style the Rockets will play in the regular season.

Tue, Oct 6 San Antonio Spurs @ San Antonio (P) W 99 - 85
Wed, Oct 7 Boston Celtics vs Boston (P) W 96 - 90
Fri, Oct 9 Orlando Magic @ Orlando (P) L 104 - 113
Mon, Oct 12 Milwaukee Bucks vs Milwaukee (P) L 92 - 96
Thu, Oct 15 Toronto Raptors @ Toronto (P) W 124 - 112
Fri, Oct 16 Indiana Pacers @ Indiana (P) L 104 - 119
Mon, Oct 19 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Oklahoma City (P) W 105 - 85
Fri, Oct 23 Dallas Mavericks vs Dallas (P) L 94 - 98


The regular season meetings last year were pretty high scoring as well.

04/05/09 HOU 102 - POR 88 HOU -4 O 184.5
02/24/09 HOU 98 - POR 94 POR 4.5 O 190
11/06/08 POR 101 - HOU 99 (OT) POR 5 O 184
04/03/08 POR 86 - HOU 95 HOU -6.5 O 178.5

[mundane]

now that is some capping cockblocker! nice work!

[secret007]

that is very good information.. i will look at that game one more time.

Thanks, it is very useful. Thats why I love this forum and that is exactly why I want to make a thread for my picks!

[Wilforth]

BOL Secret!

[RoagBettor]

I've been following the Rockets since 1989 when I first moved here to Houston. They will compete against the best teams in the league and let down against the weak teams. I expect them to cover the spread tonight.

Also, without Yao they've opened up the offense. We saw glimpses of it late last season when they played Portland and the Lakers in the playoffs, where they could run off a bunch of points especially from the 3 point line. This season they have even better shooters to keep them in games. Brooks, Battier and Ariza are formidable from outside the arc and Lowry can make things happen driving to the paint.

The Rockets can't compete with Portland down low but Landry and Scola will get some easy buckets underneath off of missed jump shots. And expect Oden to get in early foul trouble and be a non-factor.

[Wilforth]

I've been following the Rockets since 1989 when I first moved here to Houston. They will compete against the best teams in the league and let down against the weak teams.

Houston will compete against the best teams in the league and let down against the weak teams.

[secret007]

The more I see it, the more I like over in Houston v Portland..

OFFICIAL : Houston v Portland over 186 RISKING 5.65 unit to win 5 (small play)

[secret007]

1-0 so far, looks like its gonna be 1-1-0 for the day.. no dissapointment in changing my pick from under to over.. at least ended the day in profit.. i am looking ahead for tomorrow's games.

[secret007]

looking ahead of tomorrow's games, im leaning towards:

CLEVELAND -5.5
BOBCATS +10.5
SPURS UNDER 186.5
NUGGETS -6.5
WARRIORS -6.5

Opinions are welcomed.

[secret007]

RECAP:

TODAY : 1-1-0 ( +4.35 UNIT )
TOTAL: 1-1-0 ( +4.35 unit ) .. ORIGINAL : 100 unit

[secret007]

For today - have plenty to bet:
1)Cavaliers -5 risking 11
2)Bobcats +10 risking 8.25
3)Knicks under 207 risking 5.5
4)Detroit over 191.5 risking 11
5)Kings +7.5 risking 11
6)Kings under 204.5 risking 5.5
7)Spurs over 186.5 risking 8.25
8)Denver -6.5 risking 5.65
9)Suns -2 risking 8.25
10)Suns under 221 risking 8.25
11)Magic first half -4.5 risking 8.25

[secret007]

I know I should not have bet this much especially this early in the season where anything can happen but I can't help it. I saw many that I liked. Let see how it goes. No write up for the games since my internet is bad right now.

[secret007]

A losing day yesterday..

I will recap when I have a good internet connection.

Today:

A teaser of Bulls +6.5 and Nuggets +11.5

risking 11 unit to win 10..

good luck

[secret007]

RECAP FOR YESTERDAY: 5-5-1 ( - 14 unit )

TOTAL : 6-6-1 ( -9.65 unit )

WAITING FOR nuggets+11.5 to get back to original bankroll..

[secret007]

MY TEASER is cashing.

RECAP FOR TODAY: 1-0 ( +10 unit)
OVERALL : 7-6-1 ( +0.35 unit )

[secret007]

For tomorrow games:

1) Milwaukee v Philadelphia.. NO PLAY
2) Bobcats v Knicks ..I choose Bobcats in this one after that humiliating loss to Boston. I dont really rate Knicks anyway.
3) Atlanta v Wizards .. I will pick Atlanta -7. Wizard's win against Dallas did not affect my choice at all. Atlanta is improving this season and they will bring Wizard back to reality.
4) Celtics v Bulls .. Bulls on B2b games to face the stacked Celtics. With Rose not fully recovered and Celtics have many quality low post-defenders i see a blowout here. Celtics -12 or less..
5) Pistons v Thunder .. I see piston cover the 5.5 point spread. However, I will not play this game due to the fact that Thunder played really well last season against the superior team.
6) Indiana Pacers v Heat .. -1 is a gift. I'll take it, not too much though since Pacers did not do too well on pre-season.
7) Hornets v Kings .. Hornets is gonna struggle this season. They depend on CP and West too much and with Okafor not fully ready, I like Kings with the points here.
8) Memphis v Raptors .. I'll pass this but if i have to choose, Memphis +4 .
9) Magics v Nets .. Magics will destroy Nets. However could they beat them by double digit? Hm, not sure. Pass this game.
10)Cleveland v Wolves .. Cleveland has not shown their full ability so far. I will ride with wolves +11.5 here.
11)Utah v Clippers .. Pass!
12)Suns v Warriors .. I might take Warriors here. And of course, in any Phoenix v Warriors, you will fancy to take the over in this game.
13)Lakers v Dallas .. Lakers will blow out Dallas but as usual, its very hard to take them since they allow other teams to get back into the game so many times.

[secret007]

OFFICIAL PLAY FOR TOMORROW:

1) Bobcats -2.5 risking 8.25 to win 7.5
2) Indiana -1.5 risking 8.25 to win 7.5
3) Kings +11.5 risking 5.5 to win 5
4) Wolves +12 risking 8.5 to win 7.5
5) Warriors over 227 risking 5.5 to win 5

CURRENT BALANCE : 100.1 UNIT ( +0.1 unit ) .. RECORD : 7-6-1

[secret007]

ADDING 9 point teaser:

Hornets -2.5
Cavaliers -3
Utah pk
Lakers pk

risking 19.5 to win 15

[secret007]

A rough day..

Losing 45 unit in the process [ damn lakers ! ] ..

Still have 55 unit ... Taking Clippers +1.5 1st quarter risking 11 to win 10...

[secret007]

Clippers +1.5 cashed in!

YESTERDAY: 1-5 ( -44.5 unit)
TODAY : 1-0 ( +10 unit )
OVERALL : 9-11-1 ( -34.4 unit )

[secret007]

2nd half play: Clippers +3 v Dallas risking 10 to win 10.5 unit

[secret007]

Clippers +3 LOSE ! they suck, i deserve this lose..

TODAY : 1-1 ( 0 unit )
OVERALL : 9-12-1 (-44.4 unit)

I have to get back quickly...

[secret007]

To boost my account, I will bet soccer in my basketball account..

AS ROMA v Bologna over 2.5 goals --> risking 13.3 unit to win 10 unit

[secret007]

Early NBA picks for tomorrow [ I dont want the line to move in the direction I dont like ]

Portland -2 risking 11 to win 10
Miami -4.5 risking 5.5 to win 5

[secret007]

Portland started the season badly, losing against Denver at home and Houston today. In these 2 games, they were the favorite to win and they failed. They will be so motivated to win against the inferior Oklahoma Thunder. I know this pick is a public's play but I really cant see Portland losing another game.

Bulls is a different team home and away. They played well at home but seemed to struggle away from home.

[secret007]

ROMA v BOLOGNA over CASHED !
miami -4.5 CASHED !

I feel sorry for Bulls backer. They played well until the very last minute and the score was very close until the end.

Anyway,

so far 2-0 ( + 15 unit )

PENDING: Blazer -2 risking 11 to win 10...

[secret007]

Adding: Lakers -4.5 1st half..

They wont dissapoint their fans @staples 2 times in a row. They will come out strong from the start. Expect a blowout!

RISKING 11.5 to win 10

[secret007]

Lakers -4.5 1st half CASHED !

today: 4-0 ( +35 unit )
overall: 13-12-1 ( -9.4 unit )

I am going to see if I have any second half bet for Lakers game.

[secret007]

put a small bet on LAKERS ATL over 99.5 2nd half

RISKING 5.75 unit to win 5

LET'S MAKE TODAY A PERFECT ONE!